China’s Progress and ‘Belt and Road’: New Global Dynamic

“When China Eliminates Poverty in 2020, Beijing Will Have Proved That the Developing World Doesn’t Need US “Aid”

June 3, 2018

“No country in history has lifted as large a number of people out of poverty as China has done, beginning in the late 20th century. At the turn of the 1980s, over 88% of all Chinese were living in poverty according to the international definition of having an average daily income of $1.90 or less. Today, China’s poverty rate hovers around 2% of the entire population or 30 million people. This poverty is now entirely confined to rural areas. By contrast, in the United States, poverty while mostly in rural areas, is also spread among impoverished inner-cities…

“While some remain skeptical about China’s ability to eliminate poverty by the end of 2020, the record clearly shows that when it comes to tackling issues of extreme poverty in an extremely short period of time, China is not only able to achieve its goals but is able to do so in ways that put other countries to shame. While the poverty rate in the US has stagnated for decades, with the rate being 12.4% at the end of the 1970s with a slight increase to 13.7% at the end of the 1980s, China has dramatically gone from a state of near total poverty to the brink of eliminating all poverty in that same period.

“With China lifting an average of 13 million people out of poverty each year in the last five years, President Xi’s goal of progressively eliminating poverty for 10 million rural poor each year until poverty is fully eliminated at the turn of 2021, is ultimately a realistic goal, albeit one with seismic implications.”

continue reading

African Countries Meet On Using Yuan as Reserve Currency

May 30, 2018–A meeting of seventeen central bank and government officials from 14 countries in eastern and southern Africa met in Harare, Zimbabwe on May 29-30 to discuss the possibility of using the yuan as a reserve currency, Xinhua reported on May 29. The meeting was sponsored by the Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Africa (MEFMI). They quote Gladys Siwela-Jadagu, spokesperson for MEFMI, saying that most MEFMI countries have received loans or grants from China and it would “make economic sense” to repay them in yuan. She said that the yuan has become a ‘common currency’ in trade with Africa.    Xinhua notes that China’s trade with South Africa surged by 14.7 percent on a yearly basis in the first four months this year

UN Official Lauds Belt and Road as `Grand Design for the Future’

May 29, 2018 — UN Under-Secretary Shamshad Akhtar, speaking to {China Daily} May 28, praised the Belt and Road Initiative of infrastructure great projects as “an initiative on a more integrated frame, [and] of a scale, that no one has talked about before.” Akhtar is executive secretary of the UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.

“China leads the regional cooperation and the integration of Asia, with its Belt and Road Initiative strengthening intra-and intercontinental ties,” she told {China Daily}, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Forum at Fudan University. “It’s a grand design. Moving the Belt and Road Initiative forward not only connects Asia internally, but bridges it closer to Europe and Africa.”

She said, “Over the years, China’s shift from quietly forging bilateral relationships, to building multilateral and broad.”-based diplomatic structure has underscored its commitment to deepening its footprint in regional cooperation and integration.

 

“Lake Chad Disappearing Would be Catastrophic for the Entire Africa Continent”

LAKE CHAD BASIN COMMISSION  INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON LAKE CHAD

Keynote Address

Saving the Lake Chad, Prospects, Challenges, and Opportunities”

Engr. Sanusi Imran Abdullahi fnseExecutive Secretary, LCBC

 ABUJA – NIGERIA  26TH FEBRUARY 2018

Center-President of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari.  Right-Executive Secretary of the Lake Chad Basin Commission, Eng. Sanusi Abdullahi. Left-new Exececutive Secretary of the LCBC, Ambassador Mamman Nuhu
  1. Background

I wish to begin this keynote address by recalling two important events that happened 55 years ago. On 25thMay 1963 in Addis Ababa, thirty-three (33) African Heads of State and Government form the Organization of the African Union (OAU) with high hopes for rapid political independence, peace, security, economic cooperation, development, and a better life for the people of Africa.

The then President of Ghana Dr. Kwame Nkrumah in a speech at the meeting said;“Our continent certainly exceeds all the others in potential hydroelectric power, which some experts assess as 42% of the world’s total.”

Sadly, fifty-five years after this speech, most countries of sub-Saharan Africa have less than 60% access to electricity. In the DRC, a country with the highest potential for hydro-electricity generation, less than 16% of the population have access to electricity. In Niger, it is about 12% access to electricity.

A year after the creation of the OAU, precisely on the 22nd May 1964 at Fort-Lamy now known as N’Djamena, the LCBC was created with equally high hopes. At creation the LCBC was expected to help an estimated population of 11,091,000 people to sustainably manage the Lake Chad and its basin. There was adequate water for development for this population as the Lake Chad had a surface area extent of about 25,000 km2. Today, the Lake Chad region is the largest humanitarian crisis in the world with 7 million displaced people and about 2 million depending on humanitarian assistance and has the highest poverty and birth rates in the world.

Without education, energy and infrastructure no Nation will be out of poverty and misery.

  1. Challenges Decades of Rapid Growth, Droughts, and Famine

Fifty-four years after the creation of the LCBC, the basin is characterized by steadily increasing population and drought. The population of the present conventional basin experienced a 100% decennial growth rate. The population increase by 33% to 31,461,000 by the year 2000 and 40 million by 2010. The Lake Chad Basin population is projected to be 50 million in 2020 and 62 million in 2030.

As the population growth rate increases every decade, the Lake Chad basin is at the same time undergoing severe droughts, famine, and water distribution problems, human and animal diseases. The consequences of these negative factors meant that local population must move or risk property destruction or death. As population groups migrate to minimize the risk, the chances for conflict increases among and between ethnic groups based on social, cultural, economic and/or religion differences.

These changes that have occurred in the past 54 years in the Lake Chad conventional basin principally because of global climate change and augmented by accelerated population growth are responsible for the accumulation of social tension which could have led to the outbreak of the violent insurgency that we face today in the Lake Chad basin and the migration of our youth to Europe.

  1. Opportunities

3.1 The Inter-Basin Water Transfer Study

 In 1992, a decision was taken to develop a master-plan for the Lake Chad basin to include the establishment of an environmentally sound management of the natural resources of the Lake Chad conventional basin. The feasibility study for the water transfer from the Congo basin to the Lake Chad was the second priority project out of 36 projects selected for implementation in the LCBC Master Plan.

One proposal to transfer water from the Congo to the Lake Chad called “TRANSAQUA” was submitted to the LCBC in 1984 at the height of the most severe drought affecting the Lake Chad basin. This proposal was approved and shared by the then President Mobutu Sese Seko of Congo (former Zaire) but was considered too big hence a smaller proposal taking water from river Ubangi to the Lake Chad was adopted by the Member States of the LCBC as requested by the Government of the Central African Republic.

Raising an estimated 6 million USD for the pre-feasibility study of the Ubangi – Lake Chad Inter-Basin Water Transfer became a challenge until the government of Nigeria under President Olusegun Obasanjo provided support and launched a diplomatic campaign to get the no-objection of the two Congos for the study to begin.  The conduct of the feasibility study was awarded to a Canadian Firm, CIMA International, and work commenced on the 13th October 2009 for a period of 28 months.

The study was completed in 2011 with the conclusion that the Ubangi – Lake Chad Inter-Basin Water Transfer project is technically feasible and economically viable from the Congo basin via the Ubangi River to Lake Chad through a combined inter-basin transfer: a pumping transfer via the Palambo dam on the Ubangi River and a gravity transfer via the Bria dam through a deviation of the Kotto River. This will increase the water level of the lake by at least one meter(1.0m)in both the south and the north basins and increase the size of the lake by about 5, 500 km2 over a period of 4 – 5 years. The combined cost estimate of the projects for the transfer was put at US$14.5 billion.

The result of the study was endorsed by the 14th Summit of Head of States and Government of the Lake Chad Basin Commission on 30th April 2012.

3.2 Solution to Lake Chad Insecurity and the Future of Africa

The installation of the government of President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 opened new opportunities to continue the search for a long-term solution for insecurity in the Lake Chad and the Sahel, economic integration of Central Africa, West Africa and the Sahel in a new form of African regional partnership.

The government of President Muhammadu Buhari secured a financial support in the amount of $1.8 m from the Chinese government and facilitated the engagement of Power China International of China to conduct “Basic Research” to update data and re-package the Water Transfer Project from the Congo Basin to the Lake Chad that will inform the selection of a suitable engineering option for the water transfer.

Among the measures taken under the new approach is to convene all stakeholders from the AU, ECOWAS, ECCAS, EAC, CICOS and LCBC and international partners to share experiences and engage in constructive discussions on how to restore the Lake Chad and promote African peace, security, development, and integration.

Restoring the Lake Chad is primarily an African strategic problem. Whatever action is taken to restore the Lake Chad, the direct beneficiaries are the African people. Today, following the dreams of Dr. Kwame Nkrumah and his 32 fellow Head of States, African shave continental governing institutions in the form of the AU, the AUC and its subsidiary bodies such as the regional economic communities (REC). In Africa we also have developed common visions for infrastructure development (PIDA) and the ‘Agenda 2063’ for the socio-economic transformation of the continent as well as being a building block in the achievement of the goals of the 1991 Abuja Treaty on the African Economic Community.

What the Lake Chad region is requesting is that African leaders should look at the problem of insecurity and the lack of development in the geographical periphery of the Lake Chad region, the Sahel and the Central African region and develop an integrated regional approach using African resources to find a solution that will benefit all Africans. We hope the discussions and the result of the international conference on Lake Chad shall open some new ways of addressing contemporary African problems while at the same time laying the foundation for future African peace, development, and integration.

Conclusion

I wish to end this address by pointing out to our critiques that at this stage the people of the Lake Chad basin countries are only looking at the technical and economic feasibilities of all ideas to restore the Lake Chad. The Lake Chad basin countries also want to concretize a new partnership with our fellow Africans in the Congo basin countries to create a giant transportation, energy and agricultural infrastructure for the central African and the Sahel regions to create jobs for millions of our youth and lay the basis for the future developments for socio- economic integration, peace and security for the African continent.

There is no solution to the shrinking of the Lake Chad that does not involve recharging the Lake with water from outside the basin. The issue in our opinion is which option will be the most effective and the most beneficial to both the donor and receiving basins.

Therefore, inter-basin water transfer is not an option; but a necessity, otherwise we are faced with the possibility of Lake Chad disappearing and that would be catastrophic for the entire Africa continent.

Poverty, misery, loss of hopes and the spread of violent extremism, human trafficking and, migration in the Lake Chad Basin, which I have sadly witnessed, has endured for too long. It must come to end. That is the task before all of us, who are gathered here today at this historic conference.

Long live sub-regional cooperation ! Long live African solidarity ! Je vous remercie pour votre amiable attention !

_______________________________________________________

Some coverage of written statement by Lawrence Freeman to the Abuja conference:

Best Way to Transform Lake Chad: AllAfrica.com

Sound the Alarm on Lake Chad: Voice of Africa-Afrique

Lake Chad: Survival dependent on regional cooperation – MNJTF

 

 

Africa2017: Why African countries should emulate China’s development model

This is a useful article on Helen Hai’s views on Africa. I would add that the agricultural potential of Africa has never been realized, and this is Africa’s  most valuable natural resource. Manufacturing and food processing plants should be an important focus for Africa’s development,

Source: www.ventures-africa.com

Development Organization Goodwill Ambassador and CEO Made in Africa Initiative, Helen Hai African countries could undergo a fruitful economic transformation within the next 30 years, if they are able to follow in the same footsteps as Asia. “Africa should follow China’s development model and aim to become a light manufacturing hub,” said Hai.

Hai argued during a China-Africa panel at the Africa 2017 Summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt that China’s success was premised on its ability to have a clear strategy and to  execute it regardless of obstacles in the way. “African countries must be clear about what they want from China,” she said. Local conditions may also present significant opportunities for Africa in the next few years, she added, as rising labour costs are likely to see 85 million jobs exported from China. “If Africa can capture those jobs it can enjoy the same economic transformation that China had.”

The idea behind the Made in Africa initiative is to advise African governments on industrialisation and investment promotion. The initiative is also geared towards supporting  African countries through the process of implementing the right strategies to attain set goals.

Considering sustainable development can never be achieved if Africa’s population of 1.3 billion is left behind, there is a pressing need for its leaders to look into ways of uplifting people out of poverty through job creation. Africa has a lot more jobs for economic transformation because of its natural resources while Asia doesn’t necessarily have the same powers. However the results have been different in the two continents. What went wrong?

In Hai’s opinion, the first thing is identifying these development powers earlier. “In 1978, my generation witnessed 680 million people lifted out of the international poverty line and according to world bank, the number of people living at the international poverty line in the world since 1960 didn’t decline.” This simply means that China made one of the most significant contributions in history over the past 70 years in terms of poverty reduction. “If you ask me, as a beneficial of that, it had nothing to do with aid in China. The key success of China was 2 things- job creation and industrialization”

“China was able to capture the golden opportunity during industrialization relocation in the 80’s. That’s exactly what happened in Japan, Asia and the four tigers in the 60s. That’s how we actually moved ourselves to jumpstart our economic transformation from a low-income economy,” she added.

According to Hai, there were about 200 developing economies globally between 1950 and 2008, but only two economies moved from lower-income status to higher income status. Out of those 200 economies only 13 of them moved from middle-income status to high-income status. “Out of those 13, 8 of them are in Europe the other four and the Asian plus tigers including Japan. It was a common consensus in the 50s and 60s,” she said.

Although Africa was left behind in the 60s and 80s because they didn’t understand this module, after 30 years, this reshaping of the global value chain is happening again and Africa will do well to get it better this time.

Can Africa really make this work?

“Yes, Africa can make it happen, you know as a private entrepreneur, I came to Ethiopia back in 2011, being the general manager of a Chinese shoe factory to set up the first of its kind on Ethiopia. Which I immediately doubled the export revenue in Ethiopia’s shoe sector after 6 months. By the end of year one I recruited 2000 local workers, by year two I recruited 4000 local workers, in 2011 Ethiopia ranked 125 according to World Bank Doing Business Report,” said Hai.

“I’m working with AID Africa on more industrialization strategies considering a movement has already started in Africa. I have also been working closely with the Ethiopian government. According to a recent report, Ethiopia is poised to generate 60000 local jobs and $1billion in export revenue.”

“Africa has a population of 1.2 billion, most of them are young people, we can talk about a lot of fancy things, but the first thing in my opinion is how to create jobs, how to create million of jobs, significant jobs. In seizing this opportunity there is a potential of 85 million jobs. And as we all know, according to statistics manufacturing jobs has a strong multiplying effect, and a manufacturing job can impact a whole economy.”

“The GDP per Capita in China in 1978 was $154 which is less than 1/3 of the south Sahara African countries. China was poorer that a lot of African countries at the time. But in 2015 the GDP per capita in China is 7500 and according to a forecast, by 2025, China could become a high-income country. This means by 2025, considering the reshaping, all the labour intensive jobs will have to relocate out of China. But where will those jobs go? (all 85 million of them)”

“If African countries can first understand this opportunity and be able to capture a significant portion of these jobs, in my opinion they can have the same opportunity for economic transformation in the next 30 years, following the exact same footsteps of what Asia did.” “Ethiopia has made it already, soon one by one; the 54 African countries will be able to attain this kind of economic transformation. In Asia It started with Japan and then China followed, “she added.

A lot of China-Africa discussions featured throughout the Africa 2017 summit. One of the key takeaways is the fact that African leaders and other stakeholders are now posed with the responsibility of outlining ways to get the most out of Chinese investment and the One Belt One Road initiative.

original article