Ethiopia’s Conflict: A War Won to Preserve the Nation-State

Ethiopia’s Conflict: A War Won to Preserve the Nation-State

November 29, 2020

By Lawrence Freeman

Today, the Ethiopian government is reporting that the National Defense Forces have taken control of city of Mikelle, the capital city of Tigray, as well as the airport. This portends the effective defeat of the opposition forces that violently rebelled against the nation over three weeks ago, and the liberation of the Tigray region

Notwithstanding criticisms by some spectators, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was obligated to respond with force to safeguard the sovereignty of Ethiopia, in a similar manner to U.S. President Abraham Lincoln’s all-out war to preserve the Union.  The nation-state, which Prime Minister Abiy was defending, is not a coalition or association of separate states or semi-autonomous regions.  Rather it is a unique sovereign concept of self-governing that transcends various ethnic or religious beliefs. The nation-state is uniquely required to serve all its citizens and ensure the posterity of its people.  That is why throughout history, bloody wars have been fought to preserve the precious nation-state above all other considerations.  The military conflict was not a civil war, but more precisely, it was a war to preserve the integrity of the Ethiopian nation.

Prime Minister Abiy launched the now victorious military campaign against the leadership of the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front), not against the people of Tigray. The immediate cause for the government’s offensive was in response  to an early morning attack by the TPLF on November 4, on the Northern Command post of Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) located in Mekelle. This assault, which murdered many soldiers and seized equipment and ammunition, was deemed by the Ethiopian government, as “crossing the red line.” The government was compelled to respond with full force to safe the nation. No nation could continue to exist if it allowed its armed forces to be slaughtered. A six month state of emergency for the Tigray region was declared by the Council of Ministers on November 6. The stated intent of the government is to arrest and bring to justice a small “TPLF criminal clique” that has been funding and mobilizing to destabilize the nation.” (1)

TPLF Rejects Abiy’s Reform

To understand the underlying origin for this conflict requires reviewing the modern history of Ethiopia. In 1991, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of forces, overthrew the fascist-Marxist Derg regime and took over control of the government of Ethiopia. For the next twenty-seven years, the TPLF not only governed the northern Tigray region, but as well, exerted unparalleled influence over the central government and the other ethnic regions of the country.

A year after he was selected by the EPRDF to become the new prime minister in April 2018, Prime Minister Abiy initiated a democratic-reform process that included replacing the countries narrowly focused ethno-national parties with a new nation-wide Prosperity Party.  Three regional parties that were part of the EPRDF coalition joined the new Prosperity Party as equals, in effect dissolving the EPRDF. However, the TPLF refused to accept losing its dominant political power. It voluntarily declined to join the new party, leaving the TPLF isolated with weakened political power.


Ethiopia’s constitution and its federation of a central government coexisting with regional ethnic states was formed as a compromise to various ethnic-nationalities that historically had been marginalized. This dubious arrangement indicates the ethnic pressures prevalent in Ethiopia, which must be overcome to unify the nation.  Consideration should be given to modifying the constitution following next year’s national elections. It is now imperative to reinforce a national Ethiopian identity that transcends ethnic-nationalism. This is what Prime Minister Abiy intended with his reforms and the creation of the non-ethnic Prosperity Party.  (Read: Ethiopia’s Prosperity Party: A Revolutionary Necessity). Confronted by open rebellion from the TPLF leadership, Prime Minister Abiy had no choice but to respond forcefully, otherwise the very existence of Ethiopia would be put in danger.

In harmony with his Medemer philosophy, Prime Minister Abiy proclaimed that all Ethiopians should accept responsibility for their past offenses, and all should be forgiven. He embraced the belief that the slate should be wiped clean of the past, in order for Ethiopian society to unite in a common pursuit of prosperity for all. (2)

Without concern for the future of Ethiopia, the TPLF rejected Prime Minister Abiy’s outlook and proceeded to commence an open rebellion against the Ethiopian nation.

Chair Persons of the eight parties who also represent eight Regions as governing parties worked under the umbrella of the EPRDF coalition signed a document for the establishment of Prosperity Party. Photo Credit OPM

Abiy Acted to Preserve Ethiopia 

Prior to attacking the soldiers of the ENDF in Mekelle, which the TPLF viewed as a foreign army, the TPLF disregarded national election law. After Ethiopia’s elected government-the House of People’s Representatives-postponed national elections in March of this year due to circumstances resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the TPLF conducted its own illegal elections in Tigray in September, violating the nation’s decree.

Prime Minister Abiy charged the TPLF leadership of trying to derail his transition, making the country ungovernable by instigating religious and ethnic conflicts, and inciting violence against the central government in Addis Ababa.

Although, Prime Minister Abiy is an Oromo, and is the first non-Tigrayan to become prime minister since 1991, he is acting in the interest of all Ethiopians, not simply or narrowly on behalf of his ethnic origin. If, Prime Minister Abiy were to allow the TPLF to defy federal law and initiate an armed attack on the defense forces of the federal government without responding as he has, this would encourage other ethno-separatist movements to flout the authority of the nation. Thus, contrary to what people may have wanted to believe, Prime Minister Abiy’s military campaign to subdue the reckless TPLF leadership, was the best way to prevent the conflict from becoming a civil war.

Bronwyn Bruton of the DC based, Atlantic Council Africa Center, argued that intuitive calls for negotiations endangered the future of Ethiopia. In her blog post Ethiopia: Calls for Negotiation Are Driving Ethiopia Deeper Into War, written before the defeat of the TPLF, she wrote:

“The most effective means of discouraging the continuation of this conflict is to finally put pressure on TPLF leaders…to stand down…in the interest of protecting the local population. Abiy urgently needs to be persuaded that he can rely on the international community–and not only his army–to ensure that the TPLF will be prevented from returning to power. Counterintuitively, the fastest way for the international community to do that is to stop calling for negotiations, and to start demanding accountability for the TPLF.

Calling for negotiations, as so many are advocating, will only encourage TPLF leaders to believe that violence will permit them to fight their way to a bigger chair at the table. That is not only a losing strategy in Ethiopia–it sets up an extraordinarily dangerous precedent for the next armed insurgency that wants to challenge central authority.”

Ethiopia, East Africa’s leader in economic development and a key nation providing stability to the Horn of Africa. There are confirmed reports that the TPLF fired missiles across the border into Eretria, and on the Bahir and Gondar airports in Amhara, Ethiopia. Thus, it is clear that the TPLF posed an immediate danger not only to Ethiopia, but to the entire region, and had to be defeated.

President Abraham Lincoln meeting with his generals at Antietam, Maryland. (courtesy

Lincoln Waged War to Save the Union

U.S. history records a troubled and dangerous time when the Army of the Federal Government came under attack.

Six weeks after Abraham Lincoln was elected President of the United States on November 6, 1860, South Carolina seceded from the Union on December 20, and demanded the removal of all federal troops. On December 26, 1860, Major Robert Anderson of the U.S Army in South Carolina, moved his 68 troops into Fort Sumter, an island in the Charleston Harbor. Immediately following his inauguration on March 4, 1861, President Lincoln was confronted with the threat of the dissolution of the United States. South Carolina, one of seven states that formed the Southern Confederacy on February 8, 1861, insisted that the Federal Fort Sumter belonged to them, and commenced a siege around the beleaguered federal troops.  President Lincoln had to make the most momentous decision of his two week old presidency, which he knew would impact the very existence of the United States; whether to send supplies to the troops or relinquish the fort. In the words of author Doris Goodwin:

“He [Lincoln] must make the decision between a surrender that might compromise the honor of the North and tear it apart, or a reinforcement that might carry the country into civil war.” (3)

On April 6, President Lincoln told the governor of South Carolina he would send provisions to the troops-no arms or ammunition. In response, Jefferson Davis, provisional president of the Confederacy, ordered Major Anderson to surrender the fort, which he refused. The Civil War officially began at 4:30 in the morning of April 12, when the Confederacy fired on Fort Sumter. President Lincoln rightly considered Fort Sumter as an outpost of the Federal Government, and thus an attack on the fort was an attack on the United States. Within days President Lincoln issued a call for 75,000 volunteers to join the Union Army to defeat the Southern rebellion and secure the very existence of the nation.

In President Lincoln’s Second Inaugural Address on March 4, 1865, he discussed the reason for the federal government’s war against the rebel South. He remarked that while he was seeking to save the Union without war “insurgents were seeking to destroy it…seeking to dissolve the Union, and divide effects by negotiation.” The South, he said, “would make war rather than let the nation survive” and the North “would accept war rather than let it perish.”

President Lincoln made clear in this address, and throughout his entire tenure as president, that he would spare no effort, including the tremendous loss of life, to preserve the Union. The Confederacy, supported by the British, intended to abolish the Union, had to be defeated, even at the dreadful price of 750,000 soldiers perishing in combat. Americans and all people of the world should give thanks that President Lincoln was victorious, and that the United States of America survived as a sovereign nation.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (left) with former Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn

No Moral Equivalency

Throughout the entirety of the of the four year long war, President Lincoln would only describe the enemy of the Union as a “Southern Rebellion.” He never recognized the legitimacy of the Confederacy of Southern States, because, to President Lincoln there was only one government representing all of the United States.

Former Ethiopian Prime Minister from 2012-2018, Hailemariam Desalegn espoused a correlated judgement in regard to the TPLF in his argument: Ethiopia’s Government and the TPLF Leadership Are Not Morally Equivalent. On November 24, he admonished the international community’s view of the conflict:

“The key problem…is the assumption of moral equivalence, which leads foreign governments to adopt an attitude of false balance and bothsidesism.” He continued: In the meantime, those who are advocating dialogue with the TPLF leadership should carefully consider the full implications of what they are calling for, as they will open a Pandora’s box that other ethnic-based groupings are ready to emulate. Those calling for talks should understand that the very prospect of negotiating with the TPLF’s current leadership is an error—as matter of both principle and prudence.”

While Prime Minister Abiy was not fighting a civil war, analogous to President Lincoln he was forced to make decisions that would determine the very existence of Ethiopia. Nations must be supported against separatist, ethnic or religious movements that attempt to tear apart the fabric of national sovereignty. All human beings, regardless of where we were born, are united by our universal innate potential of creativity. The power of our creative-soul is what makes us distinctively human, unique from all other species. It is our common heritage.  The nation-state exists to promote the creative potential of all its citizens from the past to the present and into the future.  Thus, its value to civilization is inimitable and must be safeguarded at all costs.

1 Updates on the unfolding developments of Ethiopia, Office of the Prime Minister, November 6, 2020

2 Ethiopia’s Prosperity Party: A Revolutionary Necessity

3 Team of Rivals, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Simon and Shuster, New York, 2005

 Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in the economic development policy of Africa for over 30 years. He is the creator of the blog:


47 thoughts on “Ethiopia’s Conflict: A War Won to Preserve the Nation-State

  1. Thank you Mr. Freeman for your impressive and true analysis. I witnessed the cruelty, divisiveness and oppressive behaviors of TOLF. They need to be eradicated for Ethiopia to exist as one unified nation. Dr. Abiye kept Ethiopia from being dismantled and is taking the nation to prosperity and unity. Ethiopia has taken the first step towards a genuine liberation under Dr. Abiye’s Leadership.

    • Thank you for your comments. I have been a supporter of the inviolability of the sovereign nation-state.
      I hope you will subscribe to my blog.

  2. We are grateful to the author of this article understanding our Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was not fighting a civil war, analogous to President Lincoln, he was forced to make decisions that would determine the very existence of Ethiopia

  3. As a former professor for two years in Adis Abbaba, I have acquired a good understanding and a great respect for Ethiopia as a country and as a culture.
    As a specialist in ethno-politics and geopolitics I admire the Ethiopian people, its calm demeanor and its tolerance and its traditions.
    Ever since I left St. Mary’s University of Adis I have followed with real interest Ethiopia’s economic and political developments. I am proud in particular of the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile which will help greatly the country’s modernization. I was also saddened by Egypt’s threats regarding the dam and wonder if Cairo had a hand in the Tigray conflict. Other than that, very good and informative article. Prof. Dr. Nicholas Dima, USA.

    • Thank yo for your comments. If you find any intelligence on the possible role of Egypt in the Tigray conflict, please inform me. It is disconcerting that Egypt did not express support to PM Abiy in this conflicts.
      Please subscribe to my blog.

  4. Thank you for bringing this well written analysis to the international community. I believe the world will start understanding the truth.

    • Thank you for your comment.
      For me, supporting the sovereignty of Ethiopia is obvious.
      Please subscribe to my blog.

  5. Simply, you get it! By far the most succinct and honest take on the prevailing security issue in Ethiopia vis-à-vis the greater Horn.

    • Yes, Ethiopia plays an important role with its economic policy and providing security in the Horn. If Ethiopia is destabilized, it hurts all of Africa.

    • Thank you very much fir your comments. I appreciate Ethiopia’s economic policy and its people.
      I hope you subscribe to my blog.


  6. Thank you very much for such well informed professional account of the background to the law enforcement operation in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. I hope the world would understand us sooner than later.

    We are proud of our beloved Prime Minister, His Excellency Dr. Abiy Ahmed for saving Ethiopia. Long live Ethiopia and God bless the heroes and the heroines of this great nation. I will definitely subscribe to your blog.

  7. “……Prime Minister Abiy is an Oromo, and is the first non-Tigrayan to become prime minister since 1991…”
    I think you have mistaken to say PM Abiy is the first non-Tigrayan to become PM since 1991 as his former PM Hailemaryam Dessalgen is non-Tigrayan prime minister served the country from 2012-2018

  8. God bless you sir, You wrote a wonderful article. Hopefully this help some foreign powers to open the reality and see the real issue at hand!

  9. Thank you for your valuable analysis. You have an eagle eye of current Ethiopian conflict with terrorist TPLF.
    Much respect sir.

  10. especially at a very critical moment most people either deny the truth or end up in confusion.
    Sir! you are a champion emerging from the darkeners and tell the true story to the world with examples.
    much appreciated!!!

    • Thankyou. It is what I have been doing for decades, and I will continue. Ethiopia performs an important role in Africa.
      If you can,please subscribe to my blog.

  11. How can you call the DERG a fascist-communist regime?
    Although both Fascism and Communism —as well as Nazism— are dictatorial regimes, there is no comparison between them even in terms of the number of people killed. It seems you know absolutely nothing about Fascism, and I suggest you should duly gather enough information before writing such foolishness. Fascism, unlike Communism, was devised as a democratic movement based on the “Carta del Carnaro” written by the trade unionist Alceste de Ambris to which the poet and war hero Gabriele D’Annunzio added his skills. The “doctrine of Fascism” was based 99% on the “Carta del Carnaro”. Till the “leggi razziali” of 1936, Fascism was mostly democratic.

    • I ive you credit. The designation of the Derg as a fascist dictatorship was technically wrong. However, from an Ethiopian perspective, the term fascist is colloquially used to mean a repressive non-representative government (like the Italian invaders). The author should have been more selective and accurate in the words used to describe the deg. But in essence you get the meaning … I hope. You sound like a learned individual.

      • The main issue discussed in the article is the fact that the TPLF is an existential threat to the sovereignty of Ethiopia. Whether the Dergue was fascist or not doesn’t merit any discussion as it was a brutal regime. I applaud Lawrence’s argument in making the historical parallelism between President Lincoln’s decision and that of PM Abiy’s; preserving the integrity of their resepective countries.

  12. Thank you for revealing the truth to the world, as the corrupt TPLF is still working hard on misinformation campaigns against it’s own country.

  13. I’m happy to see that there are few people who could be able to skip the very deceptive disinformation for which many have became victims.
    Many thanks mr. Freeman for telling the truth.

    • Thank you for your kinds words. I try to be honest, when others are not.
      I hope you can subscribe to my blog.

  14. @Lawrence,
    At this time of deliberate & concerted media and pundits campaign against the interest of Ethiopia, to subvert the truth, regarding the ‘Law and order enforcement operation’ by FDRE in Tigray region, this is rare to find in-depth analysis!! Thank you very much for covering the whole scenarios and events leading to the current crisis and keeping alternative resolutions/suggestions in perspective!!

    • Thank you. I hive been involved in Africa for a long time and do indeed provide a unique analyses.
      Please subscribe to my blog.

      • Dear Lawrence, thank you very much! I already subscribed/confirmed subscription on the site!!
        Moreover, I recently shared this article’s link/URL with a number of networks and individuals on FB, Twitter, Al Jazeera English, The Economist online as this holistic coverage of the context. I also shared on Twitter with US New Ham. State congresswoman who recently conveyed a biased message on thanksgiving referring to genocide on Tigray people!! I am glad that you have knowledge of Africa’s situation and committed to offering unique analyses!

  15. Protecting the nation-state at all cost is key in so far the nation state is doing justice to all parts that formed it.

    • Yes, it is a constant process of perfecting the nation-state to fulfill its obligations.
      Please subscribe to my blog

  16. For those who lack the knowledge of this very important issue at hand, I am hoping the above analysis will give you an insight what is going on in that part of the old world. I appreciate your bringing up the situation to the world to see. Thanks

    • Protecting the the concept of the nation-state is worth fighting for in Ethiopia.
      I hope you subscribe to my blog.

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