In my interview above with OBN (11/6/2023), I discuss the importance of understanding the concept of physical economy to competently analyze the future of the Horn of Africa. Sadly, the vast majority of Africans, like Americans, do not chose to look into the future. It is only by knowing what physical economic inputs are necessary to sustain an expanding population 20-40 years into the future that one can determine the best policies of their nation in the present. Claims of “my nation first” or “my ethnicity first,” express a short sighted mentality that is detrimental to the interests of the nations of the region. Full economic integration of the Horn of Africa, driven by investments in infrastructure, is the most reliable path to achieving peace, stability, and economic growth, and avoiding conflict.
NO WAR in the Horn of Africa! Peace, cooperation, & economic development is interest of all nations. Don’t be manipulated into war by the geopolitical motivated rules-based international (dis) order. See articles on this subject on my website: https://t.co/w9DATr3sldpic.twitter.com/zXaT7KyfSj
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
In his new article, Ethiopia needs a reliable seaport and a navy, Ken Opalo provide a great deal of useful information on the necessity for Ethiopia to have access to a sea port to continue its progress towards of industrializing its economy. It is imperative for all the nations in the Horn and East Africa to understand, it is in their self interest for Ethiopia, East Africa’s largest and fastest growing economy, to have access to a reliable port. A prosperous Ethiopia benefits the African continent.
Ethiopia’s economic case for reliable and cost-effective seaport access is strong. In order to secure its economic future, the country must minimize or completely erase the economic costs associated with being landlocked. Overall, landlocked countries tend to be 20% less developed than they would be if they had access to the sea. This is partially due to cost of trade, with transportation costs being between 50%-262% higher for landlocked countries.Subscribe
Given the significant economic costs associated with being landlocked, it is a no-brainer that for Ethiopia to achieve its ambitious developmentalist agenda — which will necessarily require export-oriented industrialization and improved agricultural productivity — it needs to have more control over trade-related costs and policy (or procure stability on both fronts from its neighbors). According to the Ethiopian government, transportation costs gobble up 16% of the value of international trade (which seems really high). Foreign trade currently amounts to 24% of GDP, and needs to grow by orders of magnitude. With an annual output of US$127b, Ethiopia is already Eastern Africa’s biggest economy (Kenya is second at US$113b) but with lots of low-hanging opportunities for even bigger trade-driven output.
His careless bluster notwithstanding, Abiy has significant leverage over Djibouti (population 1.1m). Ethiopia is Djibouti’s leading revenue generator, ahead of the naval base leases by China, France, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Italy, and Japan. Ethiopian trade reportedly generates more than US$1b each year for the Djiboutian economy. Rents from foreign military bases estimated to be at least US$120m per year. The service sector accounts for nearly 80% of Djiboutian GDP (US$3.5b in 2022), much of it related to ports and logistics. Ethiopia accounts for upwards of 85% of all cargo passing through Djibouti.
Source: World Bank data
II: The economic case for securing reliable seaport access
As shown below, over the last decade Ethiopia has quintupled its industrial output and is quickly catching up with its regional neighbors. If these trends are to continue and if Ethiopia is to attract both domestic and foreign investments into its manufacturing sector, the state must guarantee investors that they will be able to access global markets at reasonable prices. The same goes for investments in the agricultural sector, which still has a commanding share of exports. Agriculture accounts for nearly 38% of GDP (including 50% of manufacturing production), 80% of employment, and about 90% of forex earnings.
Ethiopia’s planned rail network (see below) reflects the country’s industrialization agenda (the same goes for the overall transport masterplan, including road infrastructure). The proposed lines are all designed to serve specific industrial parks. Currently the main rail network (red) terminates at Djibouti City (Doraleh Multipurpose Port), with a planned alternative route to the opposite side of the Gulf of Tadjoura (in Tadjoura). While the rail network will certainly serve domestic production and distribution of goods once completed, an equally important objective should be to guarantee high-enough international traffic volumes to pay for its construction and ongoing maintenance.
As revealed by the planned railway network below, Ethiopia’s seaport options are largely limited to Djibouti — which is cause for believing that Abiy’s comments, if he really meant them and was not just carelessly thinking out loud that he is the latter day Ras Alula Abanega, were a negotiating tactic vis-a-vis Djibouti. Given its importance for Ethiopia’s maritime trade, is also likely that Djibouti is Addis Ababa’s first choice for the location of the planned naval base.
Ethiopia’s industrial parks are in Jimma, Hawassa, Adama, Dire Dawa, Bole Lemi, Debre Birhan, Semera, Kombolcha, Bahir Dar, and Mekelle. Source: Wikipedia
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
Develop the ports on the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to promote regional economic growth in the Horn of Africa. (curtesy of dawn.com.news)
October 31, 2023
Horn Leaders Urged to Consider Ethiopia’s Quest for Access to Red Sea
Addis Ababa, October 31/2023 (ENA)- Leaders of the Horn of Africa nations have to consider discussing Ethiopia’s quest for having access to sea as it would increase the physical economic growth of the East African region, the American political-economic analyst Lawrence Freeman told ENA.
Prime Minister Abiy has given geographical, historical, economic backgrounds to initiate discussion about Ethiopia’s right to access sea through peaceful means.
The American analyst stated that access to sea not only reinforces the steadily growing import-export trade of the second Africa’s populous nation, but will also ensure development in the region.
For him, Ethiopia’s quest for coastal access to sea outlets “is essentially correct” as it would enable to increase physical economic growth of the people in the Horn of Africa.
“If people understand more about physical economic growth, they would understand that this is not only very reasonable, but it’s correct. If you want to raise the standard of living for 200 million people living in countries in the Horn, then you would benefit from the trade that could be increased in Ethiopia by having a port on the Red Sea.”
In this regard, the analyst urged leaders of the Horn of Africa nations to have discussion to consider Ethiopia’s quest for having access to sea.
Prime Minister Abiy has suggested potential areas like the Ethiopian Airlines, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and other offers for concession, Freeman stated.
This is perfectly reasonable for the growing Ethiopian economy, he noted.
“The Prime Minister is putting these issues on the table now. (He says) let’s discuss how we are going to bring this about. And I think that’s the approach of a statesman and I would agree with it.”
Access to port is critical to accelerate the growth trajectory of the country and contribute to regional physical economic growth.
Lawrence Freeman, a physical economist, interviewed by Ethiopian News Agency-ENA
“If we look at how we increase the physical economic growth of the people in the Horn of Africa, it is going to depend on Ethiopia. Ethiopia is going to be the dominant economic growth center. And this will benefit all the other countries.
“It’s (therefore) natural to work this out. And I believe this is now an important discussion that has been raised by Prime Minister Abiy. This will be worked out over the years ahead,” Freeman noted.
He also stressed the need for discussion about a regional economic approach since there are several ports in the Horn.
Mentioning about distorted media reports that Ethiopia is claiming access to sea using force if necessary, Freeman noted that this is a very divisive policy that has been used in Africa for hundreds of years.
“We need political leaders and statesmen who rise above this and understand that these are political operations. Some are carried out externally or internally. And the purpose is to prevent the development and sovereignty of African nations. I think the leaders of the nations in the region can sit down and discuss how the region will grow economically.”
“If we concentrate on putting forth the long-term economic growth program that benefits all the nations of the region, the leaders would come to agreement.”
We should also be able to counter those media and other internal and external enemies trying to create tensions between the neighboring countries.
There is no objective reason for countries in the Horn of Africa not to work together for common aims.
Discussions should, therefore, be considered among leaders, experts in the area, including economic experts, water experts and transportation specialists on access to the Red Sea, the analyst stated.
Freeman hopes that this can be done through discussion among sovereign leaders of nation states, including presidents and prime ministers, to deal with the problem.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
My colleague, PD Lawton, presents a thorough report on the creation of an industrial park in South Africa that will benefit the entire region-(read below). This directed economic development coupled with a comprehensive trans-continental rail transportation network and accessible electricity will transform the African continent. This is the method to end poverty and hunger across Africa.
Musina-Makhado Special Economic Zone (MMSEZ) is a proposed industrial park in South Africa, designated with tax incentives as a special economic zone (SEZ). It is an initiative of the Limpopo Province provincial government and the flagship project of the SADC Industrialization Strategy in conjunction with the African Union Agenda 2063. The aim is to promote industrialization through mineral beneficiation and value addition in agriculture and mineral resources. The manufacturing sector will produce processed metals such as steel, petro-chemicals and plastic production (processing of oil) as well as OEM`s (original equipment manufacturing) which is producing component parts for other industry sectors. Petro chemicals are needed to produce fertilizers. In 2022, South Africa imported US$1.51 billion worth of fertilizer. The security of food supply depends on synthetic fertilizer.
This economic hub is vital for a number of critically important reasons. It will serve as a catalyst for economic growth for the entire SADC region .Achieving of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals on poverty reduction cannot be achieved without African economies manufacturing on an industrial scale including in that processing of agricultural products and processing of mineral resources which is known as mineral beneficiation.”
The African Free Trade Agreement inaugurated in January 2021,remains theoretical without operational SEZs in every region and connected by modernized high tech integrated infrastructure as epitomized by the African Integrated High Speed Railway Network which has been designed to connect economic corridors across the continent by high speed electrified railway.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
Chen Mingjian, Chinese ambassador to Tanzania, speaks at an international symposium to mark the 10th anniversary of China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on Aug 25, 2023.(PHOTO / XINHUA)
(BRF2023) Interview: BRI greatly contributes to Africa’s infrastructure development, says U.S. expert
Source: Xinhua, Editor: huaxia
October 24, 2023
Staff members work on the fiberglass production line of Jushi Egypt in Suez, Egypt, June 26, 2023. (Xinhua/Wang Dongzhen)
Speaking of the groundless accusations and malicious attacks by some U.S. politicians on the Belt and Road Initiative, Freeman, an American expert on Africa, said claims that China conducts the so-called “debt trap diplomacy” have been repeatedly proven false by Western experts.
by Xinhua writers Deng Xianlai and Xu Yuan
WASHINGTON, Oct. 24 (Xinhua) — Lawrence Freeman, an American expert on Africa, said in a recent interview with Xinhua that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has made important contributions to improving global political and economic relations since its inception a decade ago, especially on the African continent.
He believes that the severe shortage of electricity is the most intractable infrastructure problem facing Africa, which not only exacerbates poverty, but also “kills” Africans.
“This is not a metaphor,” Freeman said, because without electricity, industrial and agricultural production and basic infrastructure such as hospitals would be impossible. China is actively working with many African countries to address this issue, he added.
Belt and Road projects in Africa cover energy, ports, airports, roads, railways, schools and other aspects, Freeman said, and it is a proven fact that China’s involvement in Africa’s infrastructure construction and economic and social development “is right now irreplaceable.”
As an expert on Africa, Freeman has advised many governments in sub-Saharan Africa on economic development policies and has witnessed several Belt and Road projects on the continent.
“One economic minister in Africa once told me: ‘If you take China out of Africa, there is no substitute that would step in,'” he said.
For years, Freeman has been vehemently advocating for the African Union’s visionary Integrated High Speed Train Network, which is a flagship project of the AU’s “Africa 2063 Agenda” adopted in 2015 and, when finished, would connect African capitals and commercial centers. As such, Freeman is particularly impressed by the several high-standard railways China helped build on the African continent.
This photo taken on Aug. 21, 2023 shows the Karuma dam at Karuma Hydropower Plant in Kiryandongo, Uganda. (Photo by Hajarah Nalwadda/Xinhua)
In 2016, Freeman attended the ceremony marking the inauguration of the Addis Ababa-Djibouti electrified railway — an early harvest project of China-Africa production capacity cooperation — in Addis Ababa, capital city of Ethiopia. And his decades-long dream of taking a train in Africa was realized on a Chinese-built railroad in Nigeria.
“Of the 30 years I’ve been traveling to Africa, I finally got a ride on a railroad in 2021,” Freeman said, adding it was on the railway linking Abuja — the Nigerian capital — and Kaduna, a northern metropolis and a major transportation hub in the country.
“I’ve driven that route on a poorly paved road,” Freeman recalled. With the completion of the Abuja-Kaduna railway, “I could sit back on a train … It was comfortable, it was smooth … I enjoyed every second of it because I’ve been waiting for decades to take a train in Africa.”
Speaking of the groundless accusations and malicious attacks by some U.S. politicians on the Belt and Road Initiative, Freeman said claims that China conducts the so-called “debt trap diplomacy” have been repeatedly proven false by Western experts.
“China is not intervening into domestic affairs (of countries along the Belt and Road),” he said. “China lends money with no conditionality.”
“Yet we have ignorant people in the U.S. government, in the State Department, in the Congress who repeat this” (false rhetoric) about China’s Africa policy, Freeman said.
Some U.S. diplomats and members of Congress have repeatedly discredited China’s Africa policy, throwing out “unfounded or ignorant attacks on China” despite “having access to knowing better” what the reality is, he noted.
“They’re repeating something that is known to be untrue. So that is no longer ignorance. That’s deliberate disinformation,” Freeman said.■
Also read: “BRI provides solid platform for global cooperation” chinadailyhk.com
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
Discussion between Lawrence Freeman and Rasheed Muhammad on October 2, 2023
October 14, 2023
Watch my one hour dialogue above for a no-holds barred provocative conversation. We discussed the underlying causes for the social-political-moral-economic collapse of the ”rules-based order,” which is threatening the world today.
Western leaders are incompetent, to be diplomatic, and dangerous to be frank. The essence of their geopolitical ideology that drives U.S. and Western policy, is the false view that our planet and we human beings are unchanging. This leads the foolish followers of this perverted ideology to view political relations between nations in terms of winners and losers in a “zero-sum” mentality.
However, as we discuss in the interview above, at the inner core of this belief structure is a Malthusian conviction that there are too many people in the world. Thus, population reduction, eliminating human beings, is at the root of their creed. Their anti-economic growth policy towards the developing sector, now referred to as the Global South, is an extension of their racist and imperialist view, that people of color should be eliminated first. Under the (popular) deception of protecting our planet, this arrogant Caucasian pollical-financial elite, demands that the Global South not be allowed to develop their own abundant natural resources to produce electricity. The absence of electrical power, and other categories of vital infrastructure on the African continent, kills Africans every day. This absolute refusal to allow, and assist nations to develop their economies, nakedly exposes their view, that the “lower class” of poor people living in less developed nations are expendable.
The Western dominated “rules based order” refuses to understand that economic development is the most fundamental human right. Rather, they are predisposed to “regime-change” against any leader who resists their diktats. Tragically, the U.S. has lost the vision of developing Africa since the death of President John Kennedy. All honest and informed Africa experts know there is no meaningful US-Africa policy, except to counter China. Despite many visits by Biden administration officials to Africa, there is no concrete commitment to real economic development.
Another important portion of our discussion centered on education. The failure of U.S. elected officials, from both parties, to sound the alarm about the crisis of public education in the U.S., should be considered an impeachable offense. Children should be taught how to read from first to third grade, and from fourth grade on, they read to learn. The majority of children in the U.S. have not mastered basic reading skills by the time they enter fourth grade. This is the equivalent of a five-alarm fire and no leader in the U.S. has pulled the handle in the fire alarm box. U.S. failure to adequately address the education of our youth, forbodes ill for the U.S. twenty years from now, when these children are grown-up, and expected to lead our country. And yet, local, and federal governments consistently ignore the glaring needs of teachers and their students.
The important subject of our dialogue that bears directly on a nation’s political-economic future goes beyond the common notion of education. Creativity, the potential of creative mentation, which is innate in every child, is the antidote to the warped geopolitical “zero-sum game” mind-set. Human beings, uniquely endowed with the power to hypothesize and discover the principles (not rules) that govern our physical universe, and create the conditions for the development of our planet. Nothing is fixed or static, potential growth is omnipresent. There is no “zero-sum.” With the intervention of humankind, our universe develops and expands. All nations have the same common shared goals for their citizens: satisfying their material needs and nurturing their creative imagination. Once this distinctive quality of human beings is understood, the entire edifice supporting the dogmas of Malthusianism and the “rules based order” crumbles.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
Abebe Bikila running barefoot at the 1960 Olympics in Rome. The Ethiopian native took gold in that race, crossing the finish line in a record time of 2:15:16.
October 8, 2023
On Saturday, September 23, 2023, the much-anticipated 2023 Bikila Award Celebration and Gala Dinner graced the splendid venue of Daniels Spectrum in Toronto.
Distinguished guests and luminaries gathered to make this night an unforgettable experience. Hon. Dr. Jean Augustine, an iconic trailblazer and past member of the Canadian Parliament, captivated everyone with her presence. Renowned author and Africa’s trusted Political-Economic Analyst, Dr. Lawrence Freeman, shared invaluable insights.
The mission of Bikila Award is to foster academic, professional, and business excellence and promote volunteerism among persons of Ethiopian origin, primarily through award and recognition. Bikila Award is created mainly to empower young people to reach their highest potential and to celebrate their achievements.
Bikila Award realizes its mission by undertaking various relevant activities including but not limited to:
Honoring students, professionals, businesspersons, and volunteers deserving recognition;
Creating awards, scholarships, and bursaries;
Organizing events to celebrate and communicate the achievements of community members as well as friends of Ethiopia.
The 2023 Bikila Awards MC, Guest Speakers, Award Recipients with the President of Bikila Award. Tessema Mulugeta, President, kneeling in front.
The Bikila Award www.bikilaaward.org was conceived over a decade ago, officially founded in July 2013, and conducted its first Bikila Award celebration in 2014.
This year, the Bikila Award ceremony took on special significance, given the tensions that exist in Ethiopia, today. The accomplishments of Captain Abebe Bikila, who demonstrated unique qualities of courage and determination, are well known to Ethiopians. As a historical personage, he can also function as a unifying figure for all Ethiopians, across all ethnic boundaries. For this reason, we can say unequivocally, that those responsible for this year’s Bikila Award celebration are performing an invaluable service for their homeland, Ethiopia.
Both Abebe Bikila, and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, are national treasures that dwell in the hearts and minds of all Ethiopians and can serve to unite the culturally rich great nation of Ethiopia.
I had the honor and privilege of being the keynote speaker to over four hundred guests gathered to celebrate the achievements of Ethiopians.
Lawrence Freeman addressing the Bikila Award Gala Dinner, Toronto, Canada, September 23, 2023
Lawrence Freeman’s Presentation:We Live For the Future
I am honored and happy to be with you tonight.
Captain Abebe Bikila is known for his courage and determination to succeed, as demonstrated in his victory in the Olympic marathon in 1960 in Rome, Italy; without his shoes. I am a long distance hiker and backpacker on the mountains of the East Coast of the United States, hiking several hundred miles a year. However, I could not do it without a sturdy pair of hiking boots.
Our World Has Indelibly Changed
Over the course of the last month, the world has been transformed. Not instantly, but in potential. This emphatically includes changes for Ethiopia and Africa as well. Africa and the Global South are moving in a new direction that we have not seen for several decades. The call for a New Just Economic World Order, prevalent in the 1970s and 1980s, has been taken up again in a new form.
Let Me Explain.
First, at the 15th Summit of the BRICS, from August 22nd to 24th, it was decided to add 6 additional nations to become new members in January of 2024. This has transformed political-economic relations among nations on our planet. The BRICS in its embryonic form creates a new potential for development, especially among what we call the Global South or the South-South nations. As a result, the world, implicitly our universe, will never be the same, and there’s no going back to the way it was before.
We witnessed just last week, at the Group of 77 plus China, meeting in Cuba, a continuation of this new direction by the Global South. These multi-polar institutions are committed to cooperating in the mission to develop their nations and provide a better quality of life for their citizens.
There is now an undeniable alternative emerging to the dominance of the Western institutions, with their perverted geopolitical zero-sum doctrine of only winners and losers. The old order no longer unilaterally controls the world with their so called, international rules-based order. Of special importance for Africa, two of the new BRICS members are: Egypt and Ethiopia.
The second major event occurred earlier this month, on the eve of the Ethiopian New Year. It is when the reservoir of water contained by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reached the level of 42 billion cubic meters of water in its fourth filling. This is a milestone for Ethiopia, for the Horn of Africa, and for the entire African continent. Over the course of the next two years the reservoir will reach the capacity to hold 74 billion cubic meters of water and 11 additional turbines will be installed. Thus, the GERD in 2025 will have, with 13 operating turbines, an installed capacity to generate 5,150 megawatts of power, yielding an estimated 16,000 MW hours of electricity. This changes everything for the people of Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam-GERD. Ethiopia’s transformative infrastructure project.
What I have identified are: new potentials for development of Ethiopia and Africa. This means there will be many new possibilities for families to improve the quality of life and raise their standard of living for themselves and their children. With this new injection of power from the GERD, more Ethiopians will have access to electricity. It will also enable manufacturing and agriculture to expand and allow Ethiopia’s economy to begin the path towards industrialization. Ethiopia’s GERD is already exporting electricity to neighboring nations and this will increase when the GERD is completed.
The GERD, like Abebe Bikila is a national unifying symbol for Ethiopia.
New Prospects For Ethiopia With BRICS and GERD
These new potentials will present a new geometry for Ethiopia. A developing, economically expanding nation will require more and more young people to apply themselves in advancing their economy to higher levels of productivity. To increase the productive powers of labor we require new scientific discoveries. New technologies created from these new discoveries will enable society to advance to a higher mode of economic production. This will place a premium on engineering and scientific research. The youth of Ethiopia will become an essential segment of the labor force, driving the development of their nation and securing a prosperous future for a growing population.
As a physical economist I understand that without the material improvement of life for the people of a nation, there will be no peace or stability. That said, the essence of a nation’s policy should be on the development of the minds of its population, especially its youth.
Only human beings are endowed with the potential of creativity. Creative thought is not reproducible by computers or so-called Artificial Intelligence. The human mind alone is capable of discovery, of hypothesizing and testing new physical principles of the universe. That means each mind of each human being is vital for a nation’s future. Each human being is sacred because it possesses a mind-soul. Contrary to the foolishness of pseudo economists, it is the human mind that is the source of all wealth for society.
The GERD for example, a marvelous engineering structure between two mountains, which I visited in December 2022, is a perfect example of humankind’s creative intervention on the physical universe.
Therefore, every nation should have a twofold interconnected policy for its citizens, which is:
To ensure an improving standard of living for the population, freeing its citizens from the daily insecurities of providing food, income, and housing. With the material necessities of life secured, the nurturing of the creative imagination of each child becomes society’s primary responsibility.
These young woman are the future.
It Is All About The Future
Ethiopia with a 115 million people, and the African continent with its population of 1.5 billion (and growing), can have a bright future employing all these potentially creative minds in contributing to the betterment of society.
Human beings, unlike all other animals, are uniquely capable of thinking about the future. Animals only exist in the here and now. We human beings are fundamentally different. Although we physically live in the present, we act for the future.
Qualified leaders think one to two generations into the future with a vision for their nation. Mothers and fathers think about what actions they can take in their lifetimes that will contribute to a better future for their children and grandchildren. Competent economists and economic planners focus on investments in technological awakenments today that will result in an increase in the productivity of the society tomorrow.
The world is entering a new epoch. We can create a new paradigm with new multi-polar institutions committed to development. We now have a new potential future in front of us if we have the wisdom and willpower to realize it. Let us have the same determination to reach our objective for a better humanity, that Abebe Bikila had in winning the 1960 Olympic marathon.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com.
“In Africa, injustice looms large, marked by poverty, warfare, and famine. Despite post-WWII political gains, economic independence, a vital component of true freedom as envisioned by Pan African leaders like Kwame Nkrumah, Patrice Lumumba, and Haile Selassie, remains elusive.
After decades of restrictive IMF and World Bank loans, poverty, hunger, and conflict persist throughout the continent. While many attribute this to Africa’s governance challenges, in reality, a deliberate imperial agenda has hindered the continent’s development in all political, economic, and security sectors.
Coups against neo-colonialism
But much has changed in the past few years. The growing clout of Eurasian institutions that fully embrace Global South countries as valuable, integral, and equal members – the BRICS+ and Greater Eurasian Partnership are examples – offer hope that old neo-colonial shackles will be broken and that Africa can enjoy an unfettered renaissance.
The rise of a new global pole to challenge the old unipolar order has had a notable impact across sub-Saharan West Africa which, in recent years, has seen a surge in military coups shifting power away from regimes that had long prioritized the interests of western corporations.
These coups occurred in Chad (April 2021), Mali (May 2021), Guinea (September 2021), Sudan (October 2021), Burkina Faso (January 2022), Niger (July 2023), and Gabon (August 2023) – all resource-rich countries with abnormally poor living conditions.
In Gabon, over 30 percent of its people live on less than $1 per day, while 60 percent of its regions have no healthcare or clean drinking water despite the abundance of gold, diamonds, manganese, uranium, iron ore, natural gas, and oil – mostly monopolized by French corporations like Eramat, Total and Ariva.
Despite its abundance of rare earths, copper, uranium, and Gold, 70 percent of Malians still live in abject poverty. Similarly, Sudan, with its riches in oil, fertile soil, and water, has 77 percent of the population living below the poverty line.
In uranium-rich Niger, which provides over 35 percent of the fuel for France’s nuclear industry (accounting for 70 percent of France’s energy basket), mainly under the control of France’s Orano, only 3 percent of Nigerians have access to electricity. In the “former” French colony of Chad, that number is only a little higher at 9 percent, and a still-unacceptable 20 percent in Burkina Faso.
While Altanticists desperately seek ways to keep their talons embedded into the African continent and its abundant riches, a much healthier security paradigm has emerged in recent years from Eurasia…”
Sustainable security means economic development
“The fight against the destructive effects of imperialism may seem daunting, especially when viewed solely through the lens of military affairs. But the growing influence of major multipolar institutions offers an important, consensus-based, strength-in-numbers way forward.
The BRICS+, for instance, has made sure to add new members strategically. Last month, the organization grew from five to 11 members, which today include three geostrategic African nations of Egypt, South Africa, and Ethiopia, and major West Asian energy powerhouses Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE with extensive interests across Africa.
Then there’s China’s Global Security Initiative, unveiled in April 2022, which represents far more than just a non-western security doctrine. It embodies a fundamentally different paradigm, which at its core, places paramount emphasis on economic development as the foundation for long-term strategic peace.
Beijing has not only endorsed the objectives of the African Union’s Africa Agenda 2063 in words, but has done more than any other country in realizing those ambitious goals which call for “unity, self-determination, freedom, progress and collective prosperity pursued under Pan-Africanism and African Renaissance”…
Over the past decade, China has advanced a policy of rail development, connectivity and building up industrial capacities, training, and skill building across partner nations. During that time, trade with Africa has risen to $282 billion in trade in 2022, marking an 11 percent increase over the previous year—a figure more than four times that of the US, which recorded $63 billion in trade with Africa in 2022.
During that same 10-year span, Chinese companies have won $700 billion in contracted projects to build energy systems, transportation grids, manufacturing hubs, ports, telecommunication, aerospace, aviation, finance, and a myriad of soft infrastructure.
Despite the challenges posed by western interventions, China has been able to build 6000 kilometers of rail, 6000 kilometers of roads, 20 ports, 80 large power facilities, 130 hospitals, and 170 schools on the continent.
While some western “democracies” resort to the threat of military intervention, punitive sanctions, or assassinations in post-coup Niger, China assumed the role of peace broker and re-emphasized its commitment to continue all projects in Niger, including the crucial 2,000-kilometer pipeline designed to export crude oil from the Agadem fields to the Port of Seme in Benin.
This pipeline, currently three-quarters finished, will boost Niger’s oil output by 450 percent upon completion.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com.
The addition of Ethiopia with over 115 million people, and Egypt with over 105 million people strengthens Africa’s hand in BRICS , says Lawrence Freeman.
For almost three decades, Lawrence Freeman, an American Political Economic analyst for Africa has been voicing critically against the west’s approach towards its economic relation with the developing world especially Africa. After creating his website entitled, www.lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.comhe has been lobbying for economic interventions that liberate Africa from poverty and has been suggesting ways that African policy makers should adopt in order to sustainably address the economic problems of Africa. During his latest interview with The Ethiopian Herald in connection with the BRICS summit in South Africa, he said that he is happy to see one of his dreams, for which he fought for about a generation, has come true. Enjoy reading the detail!
September 26, 2023
The interview below is reprinted from Pan African Visions
Question: How The BRICS Alliance Challenges The Old Order
Lawrence Freeman: The addition of Ethiopia with over 115 million people, and Egypt with over 105 million people strengthens Africa’s hand in BRICS , says Lawrence Freeman. For almost three decades, Laurence Freeman, an American Political Economic analyst for Africa has been voicing critically against the west’s approach towards its economic relation with the developing world especially Africa. After creating his website entitled www.laurencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, he has been lobbying for economic interventions that liberate Africa from poverty and has been suggesting ways that African policy makers should adopt in order to sustainably address the economic problems of Africa. During his latest interview with The Ethiopian Herald in connection with the BRICS summit in South Africa, he said that he is happy to see one of his dreams, for which he fought for about a generation, has come true. Enjoy reading the detail!
Question: How do you see the course that BRICS has passed through so far?
Freeman: The BRICS now has already emerged and is now accelerating its institution as an alternative to the western view of the world, and the Western political economic system that gives now called a new rules based international order. And that unipolar Western domination is now ending. And the BRICS is a very strong, emerging alternative. And as you know, an additional six countries have been invited to join the BRICS beginning 1st of January 2024. And of those six countries, Ethiopia is one of those countries, and Egypt is another. And therefore, out of the 11 nations, that will be BRICS members three of them will now be from Africa. So, this is very good news for Ethiopia, for Africa, and for the World Development.
Question: Two more African countries are now invited to join BRICS. How do you see the representation of Africa in the bloc?
Freeman: What is clear now is the addition of Ethiopia, which is over 115 million people, and Egypt, which is over 105 million people. You’ve now two very important countries added to the bloc, the second and third most populous countries of the African nations, and together with the existing member of South Africa.
So this is a very powerful representation, because these countries represent very significant pillars of the African continent.
Now, Ethiopia has been a leading nation in terms of driving economic development, not only in the country of Ethiopia, but really implicitly for the whole continent. Because of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is going to produce 5,150 megawatts within two years. This dam will also lead to a great development in the Horn of Africa, East Africa, and Nile Basin nations.
Egypt has also been expanding its economy. It’s building nuclear power plants. It has built industrial complexes along the Nile River. And so these two additions, plus South Africa, which is the most industrialized nation on the continent, these three represent a very significant force for change and economic development in Africa. And the BRICS now has made it clear that they’re going to build the New Development Bank (NDB), which was set up after the BRICS; the NDB is going to be increasing its lending and 30% of its new lending will be in local currencies. So what we’re seeing is the domination of the dollar and the domination of the rules based order are now being said really weakened.
And we’re already in or approaching to the post unipolar Western dominated world. And BRICS is going to be one of the most central institutions in making those kinds of dynamic changes for world economic development. And of course, for Africa, with the level of poverty that exists on the continent, this could be a game changer.
Question: Do you think there will be a confrontation with other contending blocs now that BRICS is expanding by more than double?
Freeman: There is the danger of the West, taking measures against the BRICS, they have been organizing against the BRICS consistently. In fact, I found it very revealing that even days before the BRICS summit, which was the 22nd 23rd, and today to 24th, the whole western establishment in Western media was talking about how unimportant the BRICS summit was, and how it was much to do about nothing. And of course, they were just expressing their fear. Because if you ask China and other countries, they will tell you that they need oil. But they’re not just taking oil, they are building infrastructure and expanding the markets.
And the West has basically lost a level of its thinking capability, because rather than adjusting itself to these new developments; they’re trying to maintain the old developments. If, these BRICS countries, that are now growing to 11 increase the trade among themselves, if they’re increasing the investment among themselves, if they are building important infrastructure, manufacturing capabilities, and expand their markets, that each one of them can be selling to the other then it is given that the thing is going to be more and more dominated outside of the dollar, it’s going to be conducted in local currencies. So, if the West, my United States, was more intelligent, we would be oriented toward also being part of the changes but the geopolitical mindset have always been on top and is in control, and the hegemony is preventing the west from thinking clearly.
The BRICS is a reality; just like the Belt and Road Initiative is a reality. It’s not going to be put back in the bottle, as we say. And it’s a potential for real growth, and energy for infrastructure and energy for manufacturing development projects.
Development is the most important aspect of Africa’s relationships with the BRICS, says Lawrence Freeman.
It would be beneficial to all the countries involved, and the sooner the West, and the Secretary of State Blinken and President Biden and others wake up to this new reality, the better the world would be. We are facing a dangerous situation in Niger, West Africa, which I know well, is a sign of the same dynamic that you’re having. West African countries are rejecting colonialism; the French control over their economy, and are also rejecting military intervention. The coups are driven by the fact that the country is poor. One has to know the fact that there is only 3% of the Niger population accessing electricity. Less than 50% of the African continent has electricity access. Development is the most important aspect of the relationships with the BRICS. And the West does not or refuses to understand this vivid fact.
Question: How should African countries work in collaboration with BRICS as an alternative source of finance, market?
Freeman: One good thing is, they’re now going to be capable of having access to loans from the BRICS New Development Bank, and the NDB set up in 2015. So now this NDB is going to increase its loan portfolio. And it means that these countries may have an opportunity to get these loans. Now, these loans do not contain the conditionality that the IMF and World Bank attaches with. And the mindset of the BRICS, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, is the global south has to be developed.
The BRICS has already represented about a third of the GDP worldwide, about 40% of the global population. So, both those figures are going to increase. So, the reality is that the African nations are joining a new dynamic in a world that is going to offer them with the new opportunities. Don’t forget, Africa is suffering; people are dying every day, because of a lack of electricity, and a lack of manufacturing capability. Those two things had been denied to the nation’s economies of Africa, this now gives an opportunity to change. But the West has never wanted to see this kind of economic development, in manufacturing, in particular, and electricity. Those two things are addressed along with a plan for high speed integrated rail, which I’ve also written about it on my website, those things will change or transform the African continent, and this is the way to eliminate poverty.
And if you eliminate poverty, you can eliminate instability. The reason is a lack of security in many countries, especially on the Sahel is because there’s no development, because people live like beasts, forced to live that way without the basic qualities of life. And so if you transform that, you can transform the entire political economic security situation. So, Egypt is all the way up in the north of the continent. It has an effect on the whole Sahel region. Ethiopia is right there in the center of East Africa, is the largest economy in East Africa. This could obviously affect a number of countries, Kenya, Djibouti and Sudan. And then you have South Africa in the very tip in the south. And if we expand the relationships, if we build the high speed railroads, if we expand the electricity, if we build manufacturing centers, we can see a whole different Africa.
Now, the BRICS, can’t do that overnight. But as they expand their lending capability, and also complementary is the Belt and Road Initiative, over a period of time, we can see a significant change in the lives of Africans and that their material standard of living. So now, three of the 11 nations of the BRICS are African nations, because that’s already a very sizable bloc within the BRICS itself. So I’m very optimistic about the potential and I’m very happy and excited for Ethiopia, because Ethiopia, if it gets this kind of new economic relations with the BRICS, then more of the desire and potential of Ethiopian economy can be realized, which is what I’ve been advocating for over 10 years.
Question: What kind of challenge do you expect for the newly invited countries in the course of joining BRICS?
Freeman: They will become official members of BRICS in about four months. And what we need to do for Ethiopia, especially all the countries involved in Africa, is long term low interest. What I mean is 2% to 3% long term interest rates on 15 year loans, government backed loans, or government supported loans for infrastructure. We need to be building an additional 1000 gigawatts of power on the continent. We need to have a high speed rail system that connects every port, every major city, every major industrial center, and every major agricultural center, connects the continent so that we can do the merger of Africa. Failing to have this infrastructure and have this manufacturing capability is the biggest weakness which is observable now. And only 13% to 15% of trade from African countries is among African countries, they’re exporting 85%. The African countries are importing 40 billion and plus dollars’ worth food commodities. The fact is that there is no reason for Africa to become self-sufficient in food. But Africa also needs the infrastructure, and it needs manufacturing.
So there’s a lot of potential, how aggressively would the BRICS proceed, I don’t know. But if they’re going to proceed as aggressively as possible, in effect, Africa can become a different place. All in all, the changes that are going on in West Africa are really part of the same process. The rules based order is no longer, hegemonic. The world is not unipolar. And therefore, that gives us potential for transformational change in Africa.
Question: How do you think developing countries including Africa maintain their ties with the west in the middle of the possible rift that could happen between BRICS and the other blocs?
Freeman: I suggest African countries have to understand this. There is no reason and there’s no benefit to attacking the West, head on. What these countries will be doing is that they will maintain their relations with the West. But they will not be forced to submit to the conditionalities of the West. And they want to drive out the last vestiges of colonialism. So, you have the French controlling 14 countries’ economies in Francophone Africa to a new form of colonialism. We have 1500 French troops in Niger, we have 1200 American troops. We have six bases in just Niger alone, that we’ve helped build. We’ve spent billions and billions of dollars on the so called counterterrorism.
What we now have to do is we have to spend billions and billions of dollars on development. So the African countries will say, we are open to working with everybody.
We will work with the West, we will work with the Global South. But we’re going to only work in ways that build our nations.
Lawrence Freeman backs calls by South African International Relations and Cooperation Minister Naledi Pandor for African countries to prioritize investment that also boosts local production
You had a very interesting statement from Naledi Pandor, who is the equivalent of foreign minister of South Africa last month when she met with her counterpart from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, [ And she said do not accept any investment that does not include manufacturing in your own country, and I agree with her 110%, then there should not be. The African nations now also have to expand their energy. And that means they should burn and use their natural resources. That means coal; that means oil; that means gas; that means hydro. And it means expanding nuclear energy, with the help of Russia, China and India will help in this regard. And they have to be and they’re not going to accept the dictates of the bank, the Western banking system that says, No, we’re not going to lend you money, unless you stop burning fossil fuels. And the African countries have said clearly, we are going to go ahead and burn our fossil fuel because we need energy to keep our people have a fulfilling life. So I don’t think the Asian countries in general are not going to be confrontational, but they no longer have to submit to the dictates of the rules based order.
Question: What do you think the countries of the West should do to maintain their relations with BRICS and developing countries?
Freeman: This is a very interesting question I’ve been writing and speaking about this. The problem that the West has, take the United States, for example, is that it is dominated by a geo political ideology. And this ideology says that the world is fixed, doesn’t grow. And therefore, the only way for superpowers to exist, they have to be on top, they have to be in control, called the zero sum game, everything has to add up to zero. So if I’m on top, you’re going to be on the bottom. If I am on the bottom, then you’re going to be on top. And this mentality is completely destructive. Now that mentality, that ideology, which is perverse, in my view, is under attack, because the reality of the universe we live in, has changed as you and I have been discussing.
So now, the world as a result of this BRICS summit and the changes in the BRICS configuration is a new factor in reality. It cannot be changed back in the west now, either they have to become aware of that and reflect on your policies and change their policies to pro development policies for these emerging markets, or the West will be left out of it or gets to military confrontation. So , can the West adjust? Can the West, think? Can people like the Secretary of State Blinken and Biden, think and reflect that the policy they’ve been advocating has failed? I don’t know if they’re going to do that. But that’s what they have to do. If they want to remain relevant in the world, and not push the world to military confrontations or impossible nuclear wars we’re seeing with Ukraine and Russia, whether they will actually have the ability to rethink and understand the errors of the ways is a very interesting question are going to see over the next several months, but the reality has changed, and that fact, can no longer be denied as much as the media would like to.
Now the 11 nations in the BRICS are representing larger and larger portions of the world economy in the world’s population, a large percentage of those almost 30% now of African nations, this represents a new reality. This represents a new dynamic. As we speak, the world has already changed. So now we have a new potential. And it is up to leaders of these African nations, and leaders of the BRICS, and leaders of other global south nations, to make these new realities, new potentials come about to realize that and to organize them around a new paradigm of economic order for development. And that is something very exciting. Something I’ve been fighting for 30 years, and I’m very happy to see the progress we’re making. And the reality has now changed as of today.
Thank you very much for your time!
You’re most welcome!
Culled from the September Issue of PAV Magazine and published Courtesy Of ZEKARIAS OLDEMARIAM, THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SATURDAY 26 AUGUST 2023
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com.
Ms. Ronchin does a service for Africa by publishing this story on August 30th (originally in Italian), one month after the coup in Niger. The obviously complete failure by France, the United States, and Western institutions, to nurture real economic development and provide security for Sahelian nations has led to a succession of coups. From my vantage point as a physical economist, these drastic changes in leadership are understandable, though by themselves they will not provide a solution. Unfortunately, more coups may be on the way.
Take the case of Niger. With almost half its people living in abject poverty, only 3% of the population having access to electricity, and the youth seeing no future as a Francophone nation, should anyone be surprised of the anger directed at the Western backed government? Niger is home to multiple miliary bases for drone deployments and to house 1,100 U.S. troops and 1,500 French forces.
The relevancy of Transaqua* is that, if this great water-energy-agricultural infrastructure project had been implemented, as I have advocated for 30 years, the conditions life in the nations of the Lake Chad Basin would have undergone an economic transformation. Had there been progress over recent decades in constructing Transaqua, Niger today, would be a completely different nation. If the U.S. had deployed the over $500 million it spent on military training and building drone bases on developmental infrastructure, such as electricity, the coup in Niger could have been averted. Sadly, the concept of development has vanished from the comprehension of the U.S. President, Congress, and State Department.
Although, it would appear to be miraculous, America is still capable of following in the footsteps of our most pro-African president, John F Kennedy, who unlike his immediate predecessors and those who came after him, had a true vison for the development of Africa. **
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com.
