Watch the podcast above hosted by Matthew Ehret, risingtidefoundation.net, scholar, Dr. Uchenna Ekwo, and Lawrence Freeman for a discussion of Africa’s future in a multi-polar world, conducted on October 5, 2025,
The future for Africa lies in the new dynamic of the Global South and the expansion of the BRICS. For the majority of the past century, Western nations have primarily seen Africa as a looting ground to extract natural resources, in particular fossil fuels-hydrocarbons. In the existing non-reversible multipolar world, there are now new possibilities for real economic growth, driven by investments in infrastructure, especially electricity and expansion of rail lines.
The current ruling political financial elites, presently referred to as the “rules-based international order,” are declining in their hegemony over the planet. They have lost their dominance over Africa and their policy to counter China in Africa. There policies advocated by both Democrat and Republican administrations, have failed, and will continue to fail. Presently, Ethiopia, Egypt, and South Africa are full members of the BRICS, and Nigeria Uganda and Algeria are partners of the BRICS. The BRICS, the leading institution of the Global South, whose membership of African nations will likely increase in the future.
These global tectonic shifts towards new institutions in a changing multi-polar world, offer Africa a unique opportunity to increase African agency in determining their own future. There are many good proposals for Africa’s future, such as the African Union ”Agenda 2063,” and the “African Continental Free Trade Area” agreement. However, these policies will not succeed unless there is a massive expansion of investment in critical areas of hard infrastructure, most especially electricity, and rail lines across the continent.
Democracy, peace, and prosperity will only be aspirational unless the type of infrastructure programs that I discuss in the podcast above, are implemented in a concerted way by the nations of Africa. The reality is that the development of Africa, the building of a manufacturing sector and industry, and expansion of agriculture, which will lead to an increased standard of living for the population, is the only pathway forward to achieving peace, stability, and prosperity. Policies emanating from the West have for decades either not understood this principle of physical economy or opposed it. The former is gross ignorance; the latter is pure evil. In either case, the reality, evident by their refusal to fund infrastructure projects is; the West has not supported development, i.e., true economic growth for Africa (and other underdeveloped nations).
When President Franklin Roosevelt died, so did his intention to have the “International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank) to become a financial institution to provide low interest capital for developing sector nations. I have proposed the creation of an “Africa Infrastructure Development Bank,” to provide long term, low interest credit for construction of vital infrastructure projects on the African continent. Such a new credit lending institution would be coherent with the calls by the Global South for a new financial architecture that would correspond to the multi-polar world’s commitment to create a new paradigm for economic growth.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lfreemansafrica
Proposed Africa Integrated High Speed Rail (HSR) Network
October 9, 2025
This is my second post on the 2nd International Railway Conference held in Abuja, Nigeria, September 15-16, 2025. My presentation, Railroad Expansion Imperative, Not Optional, For the Future of Nigeria and Africawas delivered on the second day of the conference. I discussed the significance of this conference from the perspective of my profession, physical economy.
On the first day of the conference, Minister of Transportation, Sen. Said Ahmed Alkaliin, and Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, (Gas), Rt. Hon Ekperikpe Ekpo, PhD, addressed the gathering of over 1,000 attendees. They highlighted the necessity for Nigeria to expand its railway system, and utilize its abundant gas reserves to industrialize Nigeria, the most populace nation in Africa. Their presentations are excerpted below.
As a physical economist, I have emphasized for decades the importance of infrastructure, in particular, energy and rail transportation. These are the two most critical categories of hard infrastructure essential for African nations to become industrialized, replete with advanced agricultural and manufacturing sectors.
Both ministers appropriately underscored at this conference, Nigeria’s intention to use its energy resources and its expanding rail system, including a high speed rail line, to achieve industrialization. As a result, Nigeria will become a pivotal nation in West Africa and advance, The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Vice President of Nigeria, Sen. Kashim Shettima-(3rd from left), Minister of Transportation, Sen. Said Ahmed Alkali-(3rd from right), with other dignitaries attending the conference.
Excerpts from Min. of Transportation
Today we meet not only to review progress, but to re-imagine the railway as a cornerstone of Nigeria’s transportation which is recognized as enabler of economic growth across jurisdictions.
This Conference seeks to assemble railway experts, industry players, and other stakeholders to share knowledge and experience across jurisdictions on emerging trends, funding opportunities, and prospects of railway services as catalyst for national development. This discussion will maximize the potential of the railway sub-sector as viable option for boosting commerce through geographical mobility and general economic growth through connectivity and collaborations.
I am glad to inform you that the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Administration has accorded special priority to transportation in recognition of the above reality credited to transportation as gateway to the nation’s economy.
In this regard, I have considered it most expedient to highlight few key achievements by the Ministry under this Administration to expand the scope of discussions during technical sections and attract useful output to enhance the transport sector, thus:
Facilitate accelerated execution of the 203km Kaduna-Kano on going rail modernization project from 15% at the inception of the Administration to 53%; and the 387 km Kano–Maradi, with extension to Dutse from 5% to 60%.
While the Kaduna-Kano project will be ready for completion and commissioning by December 2026, the Kano-Maradi project will reach Katsina by December this year and be ready for completion and commissioning by March 2027.
Successful completion of rehabilitation of Lagos-Kano Old Narrow Gauge for freight of goods from the seaports to connect to Dala Inland Dry Port to put it to use.
Attracted foreign investors for the construction of high speed rail from Abuja-Lagos, Abuja-Kano, and Abuja-Port Harcourt, to boost nation’s infrastructural development and revenue generation profile.
Lawrence Freeman with Minister Uba Maihari Ahmadu, Ministry of Regional Development, discussing economic development plans for North East Nigeria
Make the Railway an Economic Tool, Not Just an Asset: The focus must shift from construction alone to ensuring rail corridors serve agriculture, industry, mining, and commerce.
Around the world, railways have always been more than a transport mode. They are nation builders and Engines of Economic Transformation:In Europe, railways enabled industrial revolution.In China, they powered urbanization and export growth.In Africa, railways are emerging as the backbone of regional integration.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents an enormous opportunity. But without efficient logistics, our businesses cannot compete. That is why Nigeria’s Kano–Maradi corridor is more than a railway project, it is a gateway to West Africa’s markets, opening access for Nigerian goods into Niger Republic and beyond.
As we modernize our railways, we are also positioning Nigeria as a logistics hub for West and Central Africa.
Let us envision a Nigeria where:
Our ports are seamlessly connected to factories by rail; Our highways are relieved of endless trucks; Our youth are employed building and running trains; Our neighbors see Nigeria as the hub of African rail logistics.
This is not a dream. It is a future within our grasp if we work together. Ladies and Gentlemen, the railway is the track of Nigeria’s future linking our economy, uniting our people, and securing our place in Africa and the world.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, (Gas), Rt. Hon Ekperikpe Ekpo, PhD
Excerpts from Min. Petroleum Resources, (Gas)
This conference is historic, not only because it brings together some of the brightest minds in infrastructure and transportation, but also because it unveils Africa’s most ambitious rail project: a 4,000 kilometer high-speed rail network capable of reaching speeds of up to 350 kilometers per hour. This bold initiative will redefine connectivity across Nigeria and Africa, opening new frontiers for trade, investment, and industrial growth.
Nigeria’s story of development is incomplete without acknowledging her natural endowments. With over 209 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves and a potential upside of more than 600 trillion cubic feet, Nigeria is rightly positioned as the Gas Capital of Africa, and among the top ten globally.
For decades, our economy relied on crude oil as its mainstay, while gas resources were underutilized. Gas has been repositioned as the centerpiece of Nigeria’s economic strategy — transforming it from a by-product of oil into the foundation of our industrial and economic future.
Gas is more than an energy resource; it is the engine of industrialization. It powers manufacturing, fertilizer production, petrochemicals, power generation, and clean cooking. Importantly, it also provides a sustainable and affordable energy solution for capital-intensive infrastructure like railways.
British built, old narrow gauge railway system now being refurbished.
High-speed rail requires clean, reliable, and cost-effective power. Nigeria’s abundant gas resources provide that strategic solution. By expanding gas-powered electricity and fueling logistics, industries along rail corridors — including fertilizer plants, petrochemicals, material production, and compressed natural gas hubs can flourish. This will transform rail-connected cities into vibrant centers of industry, commerce, and competitiveness, while strengthening Nigeria’s role under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
These opportunities align perfectly with the Renewed Hope Agenda, which prioritizes industrialization, job creation, poverty reduction, sustainable development, and infrastructure expansion.
As Nigeria leads Africa in pioneering high-speed rail, we must remember that the true engine of this transformation is energy. With our vast natural gas reserves, Nigeria can power her railways, light up industries, create new jobs, and unlock fresh opportunities for her people. This is not just about energy transition — it is about building a bridge to Nigeria’s industrial and economic prosperity.
Let us, therefore, embrace the synergy between energy and infrastructure. With visionary leadership and unwavering commitment, we can transform Nigeria into a hub of innovation, productivity, and inclusive growth.
May this conference mark the beginning of a new chapter for railway development and economic transformation in Nigeria and across Africa.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lfreemansafrica
Horn of Africa Digest interview with Lawrence Freeman and African Renaissance Television Services (ARTS) on August 28, 2025
September 8, 2025
One the eve of the official inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, learn everything you need to know about the GERD, geopolitically, culturally, historically, and economically, by watching this informative discussion by Ethiopian experts and myself.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
Watch my interview (click on above) from August 23, with podcaster Amanda Akalonu, host of The Amanda Show, from Nigeria.
August 25, 2025
Many western historians, and analysts, when discussing contemporary Africa, overlook the long waves of history that have contributed to the challenges facing nations in the continent of Africa, including poverty. There is no way of ignoring the effects of over half a millennium of forced deportations, slavery, oppression, and manipulation against the African people.
In truth, poverty in Africa today has its roots in the early 1400s, when the Portuguese forced over two hundred Nigerians into slavery. For the next 600 years slavery ripped apart the culture and identity of African societies. This was followed by the notorious Berlin Conference of 1884-1885, which divided the continent according to the imperial wishes of the European colonizers. The liberation movements of the 1960s did not completely achieve the freedom they fought for. In addition to coups and assassinations directed by the Western financial-political oligarchy, the newly independent African nations, fell under the control of the Western financial institutions and their commodity conglomerates. Through their actual “debt-trap” and the imposition of the infamous structural adjustment programs, they controlled the economies of these nations, preventing them from achieving economic sovereignty. China’s emergence as a friend and investor in the last twenty-five years has brought a new potential for development.
The elimination of poverty and hunger in Africa, which is eminently feasible within a generation, requires:
Massive investments in hard infrastructure, particularly electricity and a high-speed transcontinental railroad system
Prioritizing the expansion of its miniscule manufacturing sector
Modernizing its agricultural sector with increased mechanization and the application of irrigation
Bringing into existence Industrialized economies
In my interview, we discussed in particular, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, and China’s input. We also identified the failure of the foreign policy of the Wests’ rules-based order to understand the essential need of physical economic development for Africa.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
My presentation in the podcast above, was focused on the significance of Ethiopia’s completion of the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD). I provide my reasoning that the GERD, which will be officially inaugurated in September, can be considered the most momentous accomplishment for Africa since the liberation from colonialism. The GERD, generating 5,150 megawatts, will be the largest hydro-electric dam in Africa, and one of the largest in the world. On a continent that is starving for electricity, the GERD stands out as a singular accomplishment by an emerging nation addressing its power deficit. This infrastructure marvel, self-funded by the Ethiopian people, up-ends the negative narrative about Africa. This massive, unique structure, generating much needed electricity, can help serve as a model for other nations.
The failure of Western governments, institutions, and media, to publicize this success by Ethiopia, speaks volumes. It exposes their failure to understand the invaluable economic worth of “infrastructure led development,” by an African nation.
It remains unclear how President Trump’s administration will respond to the announcement of the GERD’s completion. At times, in both of his
Presidencies, he has supported Egypt’s false narrative that alleges the GERD will reduce the flow of the Nile River to Egypt. The U.S. has significant financial and geopolitical interests in supporting Egypt in its allegations against Ethiopia’s GERD. Let us hope that President Trump has the vision to comprehend the multi-dimensional contributions of the GERD for Ethiopia and the entire African continent.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
Lawrence Freeman standing next to Eng. Ephrem Kiden on his right, and Tesfahun Gobezay, State Min of Communications, on his left in May 2025, in front of the nearly completed GERD
July 24, 2025
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: A Legacy of Shared Vision & Unified Purpose of Four Ethiopian Leaders
By Dr Birhanu Lenjiso, Oromiya, Ethiopia
1. Introduction
The Nile River, the world’s longest river stretching over 6,650 kilometers, is a lifeline for eleven riparian states, with Ethiopia contributing approximately 85% of its waters through the Blue Nile and other tributaries. Despite this significant contribution, Ethiopia’s access to Nile waters has been curtailed by colonial-era agreements, notably the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, which allocated the majority of Nile waters to Egypt and Sudan while sidelining upstream states like Ethiopia. The treaties that perpetuated an inequitable status quo, prompted Ethiopia to pursue the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as a means to reclaim its rightful share of the Nile’s resources.
Initiated in 2011, the GERD is a 5,150 megawatt MW hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile, near the Ethiopian-Sudanese border. Beyond its technical specifications, the GERD embodies Ethiopia’s aspirations for energy security, economic development, and regional influence. The project’s realization is a testament to the vision and resilience of four Ethiopian leaders: Emperor Haile Selassie, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Each leader navigated unique challenges, financial constraints, political instability, and diplomatic pressures, to advance the GERD, transforming it into a symbol of Ethiopian unity, sovereignty, and prosperity.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under construction
This article examines the historical context of Nile water usage, the pivotal roles of four Ethiopian leaders in advancing the GERD, and the dam’s implications for Ethiopia’s unity, sovereignty, and prosperity. The article underscores how the GERD transcends its role as a hydroelectric project to embody Ethiopia’s resilience, collective purpose, and vision for a prosperous future.
2. Historical Context: Nile Water Use and Ethiopia’s Marginalization
The Nile River’s geopolitics have long been shaped by colonial powers, whose treaties favored downstream states at the expense of upstream contributors like Ethiopia. The 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty granted Egypt veto power over upstream Nile projects, while the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement allocated 55.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of water annually to Egypt and 18.5 bcm to Sudan, leaving no share for Ethiopia despite its role as the primary source of Nile waters. These agreements, negotiated without Ethiopia’s participation, entrenched a legacy of inequity.
Egypt’s historical dominance over the Nile was not solely diplomatic. Reports suggest Egypt employed covert strategies to maintain control, including leveraging influence within the Ethiopian Orthodox Church to undermine work culture, funding opposition groups, and sponsoring regional conflicts to destabilize Ethiopia. These tactics are aimed to prevent Ethiopia from pursuing large-scale projects on the Nile and to reinforce Egypt’s monopoly over the river’s resources.
Ethiopia’s marginalization persisted through much of the 20th century, exacerbated by internal challenges such as civil wars, famines, and political instability. Despite these obstacles, Ethiopian leaders recognized the Nile’s potential to drive national development. The GERD, envisioned as a transformative project, emerged from decades of aspiration to harness the Blue Nile for hydroelectric power, irrigation, and economic growth.
3. The Contribution of the Four Leaders to the GERD
The GERD’s journey spans over half a century, with four Ethiopian leaders playing critical roles in its conceptualization, initiation, and completion. Their contributions reflect a shared vision and unity of purpose, overcoming formidable domestic and international challenges.
3.1 Emperor Haileselassie (1930–1974): Laying the Foundation
Emperor Haileselassie, Ethiopia’s longest-serving leader, recognized the strategic importance of the Blue Nile for Ethiopia’s development. During his reign, marked by relative stability compared to later periods, Haileselassie sought to modernize Ethiopia and assert its sovereignty over its natural resources. In the 1950s, he turned to the United States for technical expertise, commissioning the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to conduct a comprehensive study of the Blue Nile. In 1964, the Bureau proposed a massive dam at the Guba site, near the Ethiopian-Sudanese border, with the potential to generate significant hydroelectric power and support irrigation.
Emperor Haileselassie with foreign engineers initiating hydroelectric dams
Despite this visionary step, Haileselassie’s ambitions were thwarted by financial constraints and geopolitical pressures. Ethiopia lacked the resources to fund such a mega-project, and Egypt’s opposition, backed by its regional influence, posed a significant barrier. Therefore, the Emperor was forced to shelf the study, but he remained steadfast in his belief that the dam would one day be built. He preserved the U.S. design, entrusting it to future generations with the conviction that Ethiopia’s “children” would fulfill his vision. The downfall of the Emperor in 1974, followed by decades of civil war and political turmoil under the Derg regime, but his foresight laid the intellectual and technical groundwork for the GERD.
3.2 Prime Minister Meles Zenawi (1995–2012) Revived the Dream
The dream of the dam lay dormant on the shelf through decades of civil war and political instability until Prime Minister Meles Zenawi revived it. In 2011, Meles laid the cornerstone for the GERD, announcing an ambitious project based on a modified version of the 1964 U.S. design. With a projected capacity of 5,150 MW, the GERD aimed to address Ethiopia’s chronic energy shortages, power industrialization, and position Ethiopia as a regional energy hub.
Ethiopian Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi
Meles’s leadership was characterized by bold decision-making and a commitment to self-reliance. To circumvent reliance on external funding, which could invite foreign interference, Meles mobilized domestic resources through public contributions, bond sales, and government reallocations. Therefore, GERD is fully financed by the Ethiopian people and government. Meles also navigated Egypt’s vocal opposition, which included diplomatic protests and threats of military action. His strategic foresight ensured the project’s momentum, but his untimely death in 2012 left its future uncertain.
3.3 Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn (2012–2018) Sustained the Momentum
Following Meles’s death, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn inherited the GERD amid a challenging political and economic landscape. Hailemariam faced internal dissent, economic pressures, and intensified diplomatic tensions with Egypt and Sudan. Despite these obstacles, he sustained the project’s progress through leadership and diplomatic engagement, including the 2015 Declaration of Principles, signed by Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan, which committed to cooperation and equitable use of Nile waters.
Hailemariam’s tenure saw significant construction milestones, including the completion of key structural components. His ability to maintain national support for the GERD, despite domestic unrest and external pressures, underscored the project’s role as a unifying force. Hailemariam’s steady leadership ensured that the GERD remained a national priority, paving the way for its completion under his successor.
3.4 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (2018–Present) Brought the Vision to Fruition
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, amid a period of political reform and social transformation. Recognizing the GERD’s significance as a symbol of Ethiopian sovereignty and development, Abiy brought renewed energy to the project. His hands-on approach included regular site visits, public campaigns to sustain national support, and efforts to secure additional funding. Under Abiy’s leadership, the GERD reached critical milestones, including the first and second fillings of the reservoir in 2020 and 2021, respectively, and the commencement of power generation in 2022.
Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed
Abiy faced heightened diplomatic challenges, as Egypt escalated its objections through international forums such as the African Union, the United Nations, and the Arab League, while seeking mediation from the United States and the European Union. Despite accusations of unilateralism and threats of conflict, Abiy’s administration navigated these tensions through a combination of diplomacy and resolve, emphasizing Ethiopia’s right to develop its resources. The GERD’s completion under Abiy’s leadership marked a historic achievement, reinforcing Ethiopia’s sovereignty and regional influence.
4. The Implications of GERD for Ethiopian Unity, Sovereignty, and Prosperity
The GERD transcends its role as a hydroelectric dam, embodying Ethiopia’s aspirations for unity, sovereignty, and prosperity. Its implications are multifaceted, reshaping Ethiopia’s national identity and regional standing.
4.1 Unity
The GERD has galvanized Ethiopian society, fostering a sense of collective purpose across ethnic, religious, and political divides. Public contributions to the project, including bond purchases and grassroots fundraising, reflect widespread national ownership. The dam’s significance as a symbol of resilience and self-reliance has unified Ethiopians, particularly during periods of political instability. Leaders leveraged the GERD to rally public support, reinforcing its role as a unifying national project.
4.2 Sovereignty
By asserting control over the Blue Nile, the GERD challenges the historical inequities imposed by the outdated colonial treaties. Ethiopia’s decision to self-finance the project, despite international opposition, underscores its commitment to sovereignty and autonomy. The dam’s completion signals Ethiopia’s emergence as a regional power, capable of shaping Nile geopolitics and advocating for equitable resource sharing among riparian states.
4.3 Prosperity
The GERD promises transformative economic benefits, including energy security, industrialization, and regional energy exports. With a capacity of 5,150 MW, the dam will address Ethiopia’s energy deficit, powering homes, industries, and infrastructure. Its potential to generate revenue through electricity exports to neighboring countries positions Ethiopia as a regional energy hub, fostering economic growth and poverty reduction. The dam also supports agricultural development through regulated water flows, enhancing food security and rural livelihoods.
5. Challenges and Future Prospects
Despite its achievements, the GERD remains a focal point of regional tensions. Egypt’s concerns about water security necessitate ongoing diplomatic efforts to ensure cooperation. The African Union-led negotiations, initiated under Abiy’s leadership, offer a framework for resolving disputes and promoting equitable Nile water use. Ethiopia’s commitment to the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), which seeks to replace colonial treaties with a fair allocation system, underscores its role as a leader in regional water governance.
Looking ahead, the GERD’s success will depend on Ethiopia’s ability to manage domestic and international challenges. Sustaining national unity, addressing environmental concerns, and fostering regional cooperation will be critical to maximizing the dam’s benefits. The GERD’s legacy will likely inspire other upstream Nile states to pursue similar projects, reshaping the geopolitics of the Nile Basin.
6. Conclusion
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam stands as a testament to Ethiopia’s enduring vision for equitable access to the Nile River and its transformative potential for national development. From Emperor Haileselassie’s foundational efforts to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s completion of the project, the GERD reflects the shared vision and unity of purpose among four Ethiopian leaders. Their contributions, spanning decades of adversity, have transformed the GERD into a symbol of Ethiopian unity, sovereignty, and prosperity. As Ethiopia navigates the challenges and opportunities of the GERD, the dam’s legacy will continue to shape the nation’s identity and its role in the Nile Basin, heralding a new era of prosperity and regional cooperation.
͏Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam near completion. An engineering marvel built by the Ethiopian people.
June 13, 2025
My visit to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on May 16, 2025, was truly a wonderful experience. I was filled with happiness and optimism that this magnificent water-power infrastructure complex was nearly finished. The GERD is to be inaugurated in September, becoming the largest hydro-electric dam in Africa and seventeenth in the world. Construction was initiated a little over a decade ago and will be completed at a cost of almost five billion dollars, funded by the Ethiopian people themselves. It will have the capacity to generate 5,150 megawatts (MW) of electricity by capturing the flow of the Blue Nile emanating from Lake Tana. Having first visited the GERD in December 2022; I was able to examine the progress over the last two and half years.
This marvelous accomplishment is not only a monument of the forward thinking, determination, and hard work by the Ethiopian people, but it serves as an example of future possibilities for all nations of Africa.
The full depth, and beauty of this man-made breathtaking edifice is hard to describe in words. The length of the dam is 1,780 meters, almost a mile. The height of the dam is 145 meters, 645 meters above sea level. Behind the main dam, just a few miles from the Sudanese border is the saddle dam, whose length is 5.2 kilometers and 50 meters high. Combined, they have a storage capacity of 74 billion cubic meters of water-60 million acre feet ,with a surface area of 1,874 square meters-724 square miles.
The GERD truly is a dam for development of the nations of the Nile Basin and beyond.
The author and Tesfahun Gobezay, Government Communication Services, State Minister, looking at the GERD’s huge reservoir
GERD Already Providing Electricity
The GERD has already begun the process of economic integration for East Africa by exporting electricity to its neighbors. Ethiopia is providing 80 MW to Djibouti, 200 MW to Kenya, 100 MW to Sudan, and is soon expected to sell 100 MW to Tanzania.
As more electricity is generated from the GERD and added to Ethiopia’s national grid, more power will be available for its economy and population, plus additional export of electricity to neighboring nations. Ethiopia’s urban centers have almost 100% electrification, while 45% of the population still lacks access to electricity, mainly in the rural areas. The goal of the government is to reach 100% access by the end of this decade. It is estimated that Ethiopia presently has the capacity to generate 7,000 MW of electricity including the partially completed installed capacity of GERD’s 2600 MW. The GERD when all units are completed will increase that amount to 9,630 MW, making Ethiopia the second largest producer of electricity in sub-Saharan Africa, only behind South Africa, which has the solitary nuclear energy plant on the continent. However, there are estimates that Ethiopia has the potential to generate 45,000 MW of electricity.
When I explored the GERD in 2022, it had the capacity to produce 750 MW of electricity. Then, only two water ways were completed, delivering water from the reservoir at a flow rate of 330 cubic meters per second, which rotated each turbine 125 times per minute across a magnetic field, generating 375 MW. A great deal has changed over the last two plus years. All thirteenwaterways, which are 8.5 meters wide, are fully constructed, as are all thirteen turbines. Seven turbines with the capacity of 2,600 MW are presently generating electricity; five turbines at 400 MW each and two at 300 MW. On the day that I was viewing the GERD, over 1,800 MW of electricity was being generated and transferred to the national grid. Over the months ahead six more turbines will be tested and brought online, bringing the total number of functioning turbines to thirteen.
The author standing in front of five of the thirteen completed waterways that deliver the water to the turbines.
Egypt and Sudan Unharmed
Downstream, 2,670 kilometers-1,658 miles from the GERD, on the White Nile, is the Egyptian High Aswan Dam. For over a decade, Egypt has opposed the construction and operation of the GERD, claiming it would reduce the flow of water to its Aswan Dam, which produces electricity, control floods, and provides water for farming. It should be noted that the Egyptian population enjoys virtually 100% access to electricity. The GERD is strictly a hydro-electric dam; thus, all the water passes through, traveling north to Sudan where the Blue Nile joins the White Nile in Khartoum, and continues its journey to the Mediterranean Sea. The Egyptian government alleged that the filling of the GERD would reduce the volume of the Nile River to Sudan and the Aswan Dam. This did not happen. Yet, Egypt continues to protest the GERD’s operation even though the GERD will provide a continuous flow of water downstream that will prevent flooding and drying up of the White Nile. Additionally, the GERD has been constructed to provide a larger volume of Nile River water to the Aswan Dam than it would receive otherwise. Therefore, given that the Egyptian argument is fallacious, we should look to historical geopolitical motivations for its protestation. Why would Egypt attempt to prevent Ethiopia from utilizing its own water source to develop its own nation and other nations in need of electricity?
The Blue Nile Basin, which supplies 80% of the water to the White Nile, is rich with potential for development. According to a survey conducted by the United States Department of the Interior between 1957 to 1964, there are at least three more sites in the Blue Nile Basin where hydro-electric dams can be built.
One of the thirteen constructed turbines
Ethiopians Should Be Lauded
The significance of this accomplishment by the Ethiopian people over many years and successive governments is not fully understood by most people. Even the majority of world leaders fail to comprehend what has been achieved with the construction of the GERD. Lake Tana, and the meandering Blue Nile that finds its way to the White Nile, have been around for millions of years. It took the creativity and ingenuity of the Ethiopian people to exploit this geographical reality for the benefit of society’s existence.
Therefore, I will emphasize again what I have previously stated on numerous occasions.
The GERD is a potent demonstration of the power of human creativity, and humankind’s harmony with the physical universe. All infrastructure is the product of human intervention. We human beings alter the physical universe by creating improvements. This noetic-creative process of the mind is actually transforming our planet, and implicitly the universe, for the advancement of humankind.
My humble suggestion to the government of Ethiopia is: the day the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is officially inaugurated, should be known as GERD Day, to be honored along with Adwa Day. These two accomplishments, one on the battlefield, the other in engineering, represent a uniquely unifying identity of all Ethiopians, who have lived, who are living, and who are yet to be born.
The amount of electricity being generated by the GERD on the day of my visit.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
During my visit to Ethiopia (5/12-5/25), I did a comprehensive interview with “Horn Review” in which I reviewed Ethiopia’s current policy on agriculture, manufacturing, and infrastructure. I emphasized the importance of the completed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and the need to replace the false identity of ethnic nationalism with the superior conception of citizenship of the Ethiopian nation.
Please watch my forty-five minute interview. I believe you will find it edifying.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
The 11th Beijing Xiangshan Forum September 12-14, 2024. Photo: VCG
September 19, 2024
I was invited to participate in the 11th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, held this year between September 12-14. With over a thousand guests and dozens of panels of scholars and experts, the conference provided a unique opportunity for open dialogues on critical strategic issues.
The title of the three day conference was: Promoting Peace for a Shared Future. It was co-sponsored by the China Association of Military Sciences (CAMS), and the China Institute for International strategic Studies (CIISS). I spoke on a panel entitled: Peace Building in Africa and Prospects for China-Africa Security Cooperation
Below is a slightly edited version of my delivered remarks.
Let Economic Development Ensure Peace and Security
Lawrence Freeman, Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, and Global Strategist, USA
September 13, 2024, Beijing, China.
Greetings. It is a pleasure to be with all of you today, at this conference.
I have been involved in Africa for 35 years. For the last three decades I have traveled throughout sub-Saharan Africa dozens of times. I have seen poverty. I have been in conflict areas. My approach is always to propose solutions that can alleviate the cause of instability and insecurity.
Poverty Is A Factor
For example. In my many trips to Nigeria, and in collaboration with the previous government of President Muhammadu Buhari, I advocated for a mega water infrastructure project called Transaqua. It would bring water from the Congo River to refurbish Lake Chad through a canal that would connect in the Central African Republic, to the Chari River, which releases its water into Lake Chad. The project was designed to recharge Lake Chad to its previous 1963 level of 25,000 square kilometers, from its now shrunken level of 1,500 to 2,000 square kilometers.
The conception of the project was not just to refurbish the lake in the Sahel region of Africa, via a gravity canal of 2,400 kilometers connecting the Congo River to the Chari River. It was designed to establish a super economic zone of commercial activity among all the nations of the Lake Chad Basin and the Great Lakes. Transaqua would expand Irrigation, hydro-electric power, manufacturing, and farming, causing an improvement in the economy of a dozen nations. This would drastically reduce the atrocious level of poverty of thirty million or more Africans, who are trying to eke out an existence around Lake Chad. This region is a recruiting ground for Boko Haram. Transaqua, when realized, would significantly impact Northern Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, among other nations. This new level of increased economic activity resulting from Transaqua, would lead to a reduction in poverty. ChinaPower was also involved in this project and participated with me at the February 2018 Abuja conference, to “Save Lake Chad.”
Motshekga Matise Angelina, Minister of Defense for South Africa, addressing the Third Plenary Session
Extreme poverty and hunger are a significant factor in causing Insecurity and instability in African nations. A hungry and impoverished people become a desperate people, and a desperate people can be manipulated to act against their government, which they blame for not satisfying their primary material needs.
Pope Paul VI in 1967, wrote in his famous encyclical Populorum Progressio-“The Development of People”-that the new name for peace is development. The deceased Pope and I agree on this fundamental concept, with the addendum that I as a student of physical economy, know how to drive economic growth. I am well known in parts of Africa for insisting that economic development is an essential human right. China has demonstrated through its domestic and foreign policy thatit too, understands this conception.
If we look at the Sahelian nations, we see the effects of their abysmal condition of life. There have recently been coups in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali, where the people suffer from horrific living conditions. For these three nations, per capita use of electricity ranges from 87 kilowatt hours (kWh) to 150 kWh, and access to electricity from 19% to 53% of the population. For comparison, per capita electricity consumption in the U.S. is 11,267 kWh, and access to electricity is 100%.
This criminal paucity of electricity, the low productivity of subsistence farming, and the absence of a manufacturing capability have contributed to the coups in these Francophone nations. The conditions of life for almost half the population of the 220 million people living in Nigeria is equally ominous. Approximately one hundred million desperate people in Nigeria live in abject poverty, which can become a source of potential conflict and insurgency against the Nigerian government. This combustible element of poverty could lead to the destabilization of all of West Africa, as a result of tens of millions of Nigerians migrating across the region.
These examples typify the threats to peace that nations experience throughout Africa. Without a significant transformation of the living standards of the African people, peace and security will always remain elusive.
Peace: A Shared Mission of Development
Many years ago, I presented a proposal at a conference on Africa, held at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), across the street from the U.S. State Department. My proposal was: that China and the United States, the two economic superpowers, would agree to a joint mission to end hunger and poverty in Africa. For me, it was an elementary and obvious initiative. It would simultaneously perform two strategic tasks. One, to breakout of the mind-set of the West’s “rules-based international order,” with its zero-sum axiom, which is gripping the planet, and wrongly views China as an enemy. Two, to alleviate the misery of almost 450 million Africans living in extreme poverty today. The African continent not only has the largest number of people living below the extreme poverty line of $2.15 per day, but it is the only region on the planet where such poverty is increasing.
It is in the common interest of China, the United States, and the African nations to partner on policies to develop the underdeveloped African economies. This requires nurturing robust manufacturing and agricultural sectors, within an economy spearheaded by massive infrastructure expansion, especially in the generation of electricity and the extension of cross-continental railroads. Africa, with almost 20% of the world’s population, has a mere 2% of global energy production. Look no further for the primary cause of insecurity in African nations.
Lawrence Freeman talking with fellow panelist at the Seminar on China-Africa Security
The African continent is projected to have a population of 2.4 billion people by 2050, a mere quarter of a century from now. It is projected that one out of four people living will be residing on the African continent. Think of the African continent with the purchasing power of billions of consumers and nascent industries. This will make Africa the center of world commerce for all other industrialized nations.
Chinese President, Xi Jinping, was scientifically correct when he stated at the 9 FOCAC summit, that modernizing China and Africa with its combined population of 2.8 billion people will transform the world.
However, there is a deeper more profound underlying principle involved with my proposal, which can be extrapolated to all nations.
Freeman presenting his paper at the Xiangshan Forum seminar on China-Africa Security Cooperation
We Are All Noble Human Beings
All economic wealth is generated from human beings, contrary to the myth of Adam Smith, and the foolish followers of the so-called freedom of the marketplace. To be more precise, wealth is created by the human mind. All human beings, regardless of birthplace, ethnic identity, or religion, are endowed, uniquely, with the capacity for creative reason. It is through this human power of creative mentation, which no other species possesses, that discovery of new physical principles of the universe is possible. From these creative discoveries, humankind has continually transformed the universe to successively higher levels of development. Discovery by human beings of new scientific principles creates new technologies. New modern technologies transform existing modes of economic production, and actually redefine what we conceive of as natural resources. Thomas Malthus’ anti-scientific belief of a fixed limit of our planet’s potential material wealth, has never existed in our universe, no matter how many times this dogma is regurgitated.
We know with absolute certainty that human beings, with their creative minds, are the true source of wealth. This is contrary to those, who like the British Imperialist, Cecil Rhodes, falsely believe wealth is found beneath the surface. Therefore, the primary responsibility of governments is to initiate and design policies, domestic and foreign, which nurture the creativity of each individual in an expanding population. Thus, the self-interest of every nation is exactly the same: fostering creativity of its own population, and the citizens of all other nations. This is a true shared common mission for civilization to progress into the future.
To enhance stability and security in African nations, requires thoughtful governments to collaborate in raising the material standard of living of those societies. Long-term, low interest loans for infrastructure is vital for energizing economic growth. Elevating the conditions of life is an indispensable prerequisite for establishing a culture dedicated to fulfilling the creative potential of each citizen.
I confidently proffer that this is the pathway to permanent peace.
The prejudices from the Western worldview could lead the world into a much more serious global war, said Lawrence Freeman at #BeijingXiangshanForum. He added that development, rather than militarization and hostile or prejudicial notions, will lead to peace.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, and also publishing on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World.”
China is hosting the 9th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit in Beijing on September 4th through September 6th. FOCAC conferences have occurred every three years since the year 2000 bringing together leaders and representatives from the African continent with their Chinese counterparts. These discussions cover all aspects of economic, political, and social relations between China and the African nations. There is no doubt, despite all the naysayers and propaganda attacks against China alleging an ulterior motive, this is a true friendship, an important feature of China’s foreign policy. China has outflanked the Western governed “rules-based international order,” creating a bond between the two giant populated regions of the world. FOCAC is unique. There is no such comparable forum between African nations and the United States or Europe.
Geopolitical Limitations
The West, led by the United States, has continually attacked China with false claims, trying to create a wedge between China and Africa. They have accused China of being the new colonial power in Africa, which is completely false. They have accused China of “debt-trap” diplomacy, which has been proven erroneous again, and again. There has not been a single project in Africa taken over by China, or any assets seized by China, because of the inability of African nations to pay their loans. Despite all these attempts to malign China, the China-Africa relationship has substantially grown in this century. China eclipsed the United States in trade with Africa in 2009. China-Africa trade has zoomed up to approximately $282 billion, while United States trade with Africa has shrunk to less than $50 billion.
From the combination of FOCAC, and the creation in 2013 of the Belt and Road, China has contributed to massive infrastructure expansion across the continent. In summary, this includes installation of over 25 gigawatts of electricity generation capacity, constructing and upgrading over 10,000 kilometers (kms) of railways; 100,000 kms of highways; over 60,000 kms of submarine cables; almost 1,000 bridges; 100 ports; and over 100 health facilities and schools.
Such vital categories of hard and soft infrastructure were never built by the “rules-based order” in the half century in which the West dominated trade with Africa.
China-Africa Partner for Growth
The 9th FOCAC is the first summit following the disruptions caused by Covid-19. The theme of this conference is Joining Hands to Advance Modernization and Build a High-Level China-Africa Community with a Shared Future. This theme is not new. China and Africa have a history of cooperation, which continues to develop.
Soon after the 8th FOCAC in Dakar, Senegal in 2021, China released an outline of future China-Africa cooperation, China Africa Vision 2035. In this policy paper, China outlines the key categories of cooperation for the development of the African continent. They include expansion of infrastructure, and growth in the manufacturing sector in order to achieve poverty reduction of poverty. See excerpts below.
Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa-PIDA’s Energy Impact” from the African Union’s vision statement, . (courtesy of limn.net)
2.3Advancing integrated cooperation. China actively participates in the development of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). China-Africa infrastructure cooperation is upgraded as China supports the development of African railway, highway, shipping, port, airline and communications network based on multiple cooperation models. The two sides establish diversified arrangements for trade and investment facilitation to elevate China-Africa cooperation on trade and investment facilitation to a new level.
3.2 Expanding production capacity cooperation. China will help Africa develop “Made in Africa” brands and integrate into global industrial and supply chains by assisting Africa to develop its manufacturing sector. China supports Africa in building and improving technical standard system for quality infrastructure. China will share experience with Africa to help Africa upgrade and enhance the competitiveness of its manufacturing sector, invigorate the private sector, and create more jobs in the private sector.
5.2Notable achievements in poverty reduction cooperation. China and Africa continue to share experience in job creation and poverty reduction in various ways. China supports Africa in enhancing poverty reduction capacity, improving education, water and power supply and other public utilities, advancing urbanization, and achieving inclusive growth. With solid progress, the humanitarian exchange serves as a humanitarian bridge between China and Africa.
Achieving Economic Growth
For those of us who comprehend the true history of modern economic development, it is beyond dispute that infrastructure, especially electricity, and manufacturing are essential to achieve measurable physical economic growth. I have made the case repeatedly that without electricity (infrastructure), no nation is capable of economic growth. Read: Africans Fight Back Against Green Energy Poverty Policy of the West.
There has been much justified insistence that African nations should no longer allow their resources, especially critical minerals, to be simply extracted with little or no benefit to their economy. Now, nations are determined to create additional wealth through processing and manufacturing of their own resources into valuable finished products. However, this is impossible without abundant and accessible energy!
Without manufacturing capability, a nation will always be enslaved to those who produce and sell finished goods at their controlled prices. Essential categories of hard and soft infrastructure provide a platform for an economy to grow. A manufacturing sector produces the necessary physical wealth to maintain an expanding society and increases the productivity of the agricultural sector as well. The lack of these crucial elements has prevented African nations from developing modern industrial economies. China understands these rudimentary economic concepts from its own experience and has provided important contributions to many African nations to assist in their development. Investment in these economic categories is still insufficient, but no other nation, including the entire advanced sector has matched China’s involvement.
China’s vision for Africa in 2035 is coherent with their own plans for their economic future. The third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China adopted plans to achieve a modern-prosperous socialist economy by 2035. Read: China’s Reform to Advance Modernization
Western nations should be emulating China’s commitment to prosperity and eliminating poverty, not maligning it. There has been much chatter by African specialists, in recent days, predicting a reduction of China investment, leading into this week’s FOCAC Heads of State Summit. They claim that China will no longer be loaning money for big projects, and that the shine has come off the Belt and Road, due to the slowdown of the Chinese economy. China is accused of overloading African nations with unpayable debt, even though China is a minority holder of African debt. The International Monetary Fund reports that China has just six percent of sovereign debt of African nations and only seventeen percent of their external debt.
Acting On The Future
It is projected that Africa’s population will be near 2.5 billion people in a mere twenty-five or so years. By then Africa will have approximately one quarter of the planet’s population, the largest labor force, and over a billion young people, according to current projections. Consequently, the African continent will become the focal point for trade and commerce throughout the world, creating a new strategic reality.
For those of us who proceed from a knowledge of the future, know, that designing policy to eliminate poverty and hunger across Africa is of the upmost strategic importance. For this reason, an important agenda item for FOCAC would be, to assess the total infrastructure needs of the African continent as an interconnected whole. And from that analysis, identify those crucial infrastructure projects that would have the most immediate effect on advancing the current mode of economic production. Infrastructure affects all aspects of production of consumer and capital goods. More advanced infrastructure platforms introduce new technologies into an economy, resulting in an increase in productivity. China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated last week that infrastructure development is a priority in its relationship with Africa.
Through massive investments in infrastructure, China has transformed its economy. It has more than doubled average life expectancy from 33 years in 1960 to 78 years in 2021, on par with the U.S. During recent decades, China has lifted almost three-quarters of a billion of its people out of poverty. Yet, economic misery in Africa continues to increase, with approximately half a billion Africans suffering from abject poverty today. While this demographic achievement of China’s successful infrastructure driven economic growth, is deliberately ignored by the arrogant “rules-based order” it is nonetheless a modern economic miracle. A knowable miracle that can be applied for the development of African nations
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, and also publishing on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World.”
