In my thirty minute discussion on OBN, with Addis Assefa, I outline the fundamental national interests of Ethiopia and how to achieve them.April 10, 2026.
June 21, 2026
The government of Ethiopia has two primary obligations to its citizens. One, to adopt policies that lead to a continuous improvement in the standard of living of the entire population. Two, to safeguard and preserve the integrity of Ethiopia as a nation state, emphasizing the quality of Ethiopian citizenship as opposed to a so called ethnic-nationalist identity.
The vulnerabilities to the Ethiopian state, like any nation, emanate from lack of economic development of its society. Poor people become desperate people, and desperate people can be manipulated to act against the interest of their nation. Therefore, government must initiate policies and programs that significantly reduce, if not eliminate poverty, and substantially raise the wages of its citizens. A national development agenda that is inclusive of all regions and ethnicities of Ethiopia is the best method for achieving Ethiopia’s two fundamental national interests. If citizens perceive that their government is pursuing efforts to improve their lives they will respond supportively.
The creation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the GERD, is not only a singular accomplishment for Ethiopia and its people, but for all of Africa. It indicates the potential of Ethiopia to address other economic and societal challenges. It provides desperately needed electricity, not only to Ethiopia but to other nations in East Africa. While Addis Ababa has been transformed over the last decade, other regions of Ethiopia require the same attention and infusions of infrastructure. Agriculture has vastly improved, especially in wheat production, through farm collectives and the expanded use of irrigation. Manufacturing has increased, but Ethiopia, like every nation who desires to achieve economic sovereignty, requires a robust indigenous manufacturing sector.
Ethiopian diaspora correctly supported the government of Abiy Ahmed in its two year war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). If this regime-change war initiated by the TPLF had been successful, the nation of Ethiopia would have been destroyed, leaving behind warring ethnic fiefdoms. Victory by the government of Ethiopia was existential. Following the peace agreement, Ethiopian diaspora in the U.S., with the vast majority of their allies, have lined up in support of one or another of ethnic nationalist groups, who are once again involved in regime change.
Watch my thirty minute discussion above, to understand the best approach for Ethiopia to realize its true national interests
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
Watch my thirty-eight interview with Worku Asfaw, on November 11. 2025.
November 21, 2023
In this penetrating interview, I discuss Ethiopia’s plight to achieve access to a port on the Red Sea, avoiding war at all costs. We must proceed to create a peaceful solution. That requires that African nations do not internalize the dangerous dogma dominating Western thinking that the world is a “zero-sum game.” African nations should not emulate the West’s diseased ideology of the so called “rules-based international order.” Instead, we should elevate our thinking to a higher domain of mutual economic cooperation that benefits all nations. Nations should no longer get trapped into reacting to the past, to colonial legacies, and instead to create a vision for development for 20-40 years into the future. We should recognize that all nations share a common interest, in which nations understand that the “benefit to the other is a benefit to thy self.” This approach focuses on promoting physical economic growth to all the nations in the region, to lift up millions of Africans suffering from poverty. Poverty is the great destabilizer of African nations, which must be eliminated to create conditions for durable peace and stability.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
Read my entire article below published in the April edition of Horn Review. I discuss the urgent need to move forward with economic growth policies that are in the shared common interest of all nations of the Horn of Africa
With War Off the Table, Economic Growth for Horn of Africa is Priority #1
For more than a year, there has been constant talk of war in the Horn of Africa, involving Ethiopia. I have spoken out loudly and consistently against war mongers and scenario predictions of military conflict. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s presentation before his parliament on Thursday, March 19, where he declared: Ethiopia does not have any intention of engaging in conflict with Eritrea for the purpose of gaining access to the [Red] sea, should terminateall prattle of war. Unless there are political powers and bad actors outside and/or inside the Horn of Africa, who would actually desire such a horrific conflict.
Scenario for Somalia
For the entirety of 2024, there was continuous chatter on X and hundreds of articles predicting a potential military conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia. With the foolish October 2024 security pact between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia, this conflict could have been cataclysmic for Africa. Of course, it never materialized.
The concern was supposedly due to the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland to allow Ethiopia access to the port of Berbera in return for recognition of an independent Somaliland. The port city of Berbera that lies on the Gulf of Aden, which flows into the Red Sea, would have given Ethiopia access to one of the most strategic shipping-trade routes in the world.
However, we should take note that the actual written content of this MoU was never publicly revealed, leaving the public and the war mongers ignorant of its full substance. Also, there is a legitimate discussion of recognition of Somaliland, which has functioned as a separate political entity of Somalia for over 30 years. It is beyond the scope of this article to elucidate the history of Somalia and Somaliland. There has been widespread discussion among many African nations on the validity of recognition of Somaliland, including nations outside of Africa, such as the Unites States.
It should be emphasized that despite all the threatening remarks by Somalian officials, to date, there has been no official recognition by Ethiopia of Somaliland. In fact, the opposite occurred. Ethiopia and Somalia have officially announced their intent for increased cooperation. Both leaders, Sheikh Mohamud, President of Somalia and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia, signed an official communique issued on February 27, 2025, which stated in part:
The two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening cooperation for mutual benefit. Recognizing the deep historical ties between their peoples and the shared border that connects them, they emphasized the importance of building trust through enhanced diplomatic, economic, and social cooperation.
Ethiopia and Somalia are independent nations with a common destiny and a shared vision for regional stability and prosperity. In this spirit, both leaders expressed their commitment to implementing strategic infrastructure projects to ensure sustainable development, economic integration and strengthen people-to-people ties.
Leaders of Ethiopia and Somalia Reaffirm Their Commitments to Strengthen Cooperation. Mogadishu, Somalia
Will Tigray Lead to War With Eritrea
Following a two year bloody war (11/2020-11/2022) by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a peace settlement was reached in Pretoria, South Africa. This year there are reports of the potential for a new war in Tigray between two warring TPLF factions. If accounts are accurate this intra-TPLF conflict could possibly result in the defense forces of Eritrea and Ethiopia fighting each other. Another war in the Horn of Africa would be catastrophic for Africans living in this region and must be prevented at all costs.
The Tigray Interim Administration headed by former deputy of the TPLF, Getachew Reda, is supported by the Ethiopian government. The dissident TPLF faction is led by Debretsion Gebramichael and allegedly backed by Eritrea, although the government of Eritrea denies this emphatically. Read: Rising Tensions in Tigray Risk Regional Conflict
If these two national armies and two opposing TPLF militias engage in combat, almost two and a half years after the last war in Ethiopia, it would be devastating not just for Ethiopians but for the entire region. Yet, dozens, if not hundreds of articles have flooded the media predicting this very scenario.
Peace vs War
The cessation of fighting and the ending of war does not equal peace. True peace and stability emanate from a higher domain of statecraft. Below are the two guiding principles for creating a durable peace.
In Europe during the first half of the 17th century, eight million people died in the Thirty Years War, which ended with the famous 1648 Treaty of Westphalia.
Article 1 of the treaty stipulated: …That this Peace and Amity be observ’d and cultivated with such a Sincerity and Zeal, that each Party shall endeavour to procure the Benefit, Honour and Advantage of the other;
Article 2 stipulated: That there shall be on the one side and the other a perpetual Oblivion, Amnesty, or Pardon of all that has been committed since the beginning of these Troubles…
Nations of the Horn of Africa must move forward from the crimes and wars of the past, and design policies that are in their self-interest and in the interest of the other.
Pope Paul VI in 1967, wrote in his famous encyclical Populorum Progressio-“The Development of People”-that the new name for peace is development. The concept of economic development has disappeared from the thinking of all U.S. leaders. For the last six decades, since the death of President John Kennedy, no American official has promoted a policy for real physical economic growth in Africa. Contrary to what most NGOs and so called democracy advocacy groups peddle for Africa, economic development is an essential human right.
Therefore, any true statesperson should be able to understand, that the way to bring durable peace and stability for the region of the Horn, is to design an economic program that benefits the common interests of all the peoples of the region: the elimination of poverty and hunger.
At the age of seventy-four, I am amazed that I am the only American specializing in African Affairs, who understands these two principles. I must also admit that I have encountered few Africans who share my outlook. Yet, it is transparently obvious, that by creating a common shared interest among nations for a more prosperous future, can we as wise men and women, journey on the only true path to peace.
2018 A Lost Moment
Prime Minister Abiy shocked the world, and Africa especially, when he ended two decades of a “state of war” between Eritrea and Ethiopia. He ceremoniously arrived in Eritrea’s capital, Asmara, on Sunday July 8, 2018, greeted by Eritrean President, Isaias Afwerki. For this, Abiy Ahmed was given the Nobel Pease Prize in 2019. President Isaias arrived in Addis Ababa one week later on July 14, for his first visit to Ethiopia in over 20 years. In twenty-five months, the war in Ethiopia erupted, with Eritrea’s military joining with Ethiopia’s National Defense Force to defeat the rebel TPLF. Since then, relations between the two nations dramatically changed.
On July 9, 2018, the two heads of state signed the Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship between Eritrea and Ethiopia, in Asmara. Their joint agreement read in part:
Conscious that the peoples of Ethiopia and Eritrea share close bonds of geography, history, culture, language, and religion, as well as fundamental common interests;
2. The two governments will endeavor to forge intimate political, economic, social, cultural and security cooperation that serves and advances the vital interests of their peoples;
3. Transport, trade, and communications links between the two countries will resume; diplomatic ties and activities will restart;
5. Both countries will jointly endeavor to ensure regional peace, development, and cooperation…
What was needed after the signing of the 2018 agreement was: immediate implementation. A Grand Design for the development of the Horn of Africa anchored by Ethiopia and Eritrea should have been prepared and discussed. It should have included sharing of increased energy production, port access for Ethiopia to the Red Sea, expanded agricultural production and irrigation, and expansion of new roads and rail transportation systems connecting the two nations and extending to Djibouti, Somalia, and Somaliland.
The ability to act (or not) resolutely with pith and urgency can be decisive in determining the future. We must recognize that the failure to put “shovels in the ground,” after the signing of the 2018 agreement, before the start of the war in Tigray, was a mistake that cannot be repeated. Establishing shared-common economic benefits from collaboration between Eritrea and Ethiopia is pivotal for peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.
By Lawrence Freeman, Researcher on Africa Development Policy
Below is the complete April edition of Horn Review
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
Eritrea’s strategic location in the Horn of Africa (courtesy of dehai.org)
January 12, 2025
The following article, Eritrea Is the North Korea of Africa: America Must Act, is a naked call for regime-change against the nation of Eritrea. The author advocates for the incoming administration of President Trump, to support so called democracy movements to overthrow the government of President Isaias Afwerki. If the Trump administration were to follow this perilously foolish advice, it could result in igniting a catastrophic destabilization of the Horn of Africa that would affect the entire continent. Potentially hundreds of thousands of Africans could die from military combat, starvation, and disease, with even more Africans becoming refugees. This is a dangerous trap being set for President Trump, which he must reject. If he does not, the people of the most populous continent will hate him, and U.S.-African relations will be severely damaged for decades.
With this essay, Michael Rubin is exposing himself as a reckless fool, and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), as a treacherous ally of the incoming administration, threatening the stability of East Africa. Both Rubin and AEI reveal themselves as tools of the West’s rules-based order.
Reject Madness
Look at a map! Look at the nations contiguous to Eritrea and its neighbors in the East African region. Hundreds of millions of Africans could be affected by such an irresponsible action as regime-change.
Sudan-48 million people, is experiencing a horrible internal war, threatening to destroy the nation of Sudan, sending millions of Sudanese fleeing into neighboring nations. Ethiopia-125 million people, after surviving a two year war that killed hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians (2020-2022) is suffering internal strife as the government continues to battle ethnic-nationalists over the last two years. South Sudan-11 million people, has been virtually a failed state since its independence in 2011. Somalia-18 million people, the government is struggling to achieve stability, battling al Shabaab for nearly two decades. Kenya with 55 million people, Uganda with a population of 46 million, and Djibouti with one million, would not be immune from an externally motivated removal of President Afwerki. It is sheer madness for Rubin and AEI to encourage regime-change in such a turbulent region. Either Rubin and AEI have no understanding of the dynamics of this region, and/or they are completely oblivious regarding the ill-fated consequences their proposal for U.S. sponsored regime change.
Eritrea’s coastline that borders the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, is a strategic trade route, which the rules-based order wants under the control of a more pliable leader than President Afwerki, who is deemed too independent.
President of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki (courtesy of shabait.com)
The article is filled with assertions and only one sighted source, Eritrea’s ambassador to South Sudan. Comparisons are made to Zimbabwe, which was also a target of failed attempts at regime-change; North Korea, one of the nations listed in the “axis of evil”; and Saddam Hussein, whose nation was invaded by the West, which led to the creation ISIS. Of course, Russia and China are not left out of Rubin’s diatribe. Although Eritrea has been subject to various sanctions over the decades, Rubin and AEI advocate additional sanctions, empowering and funding opposition groups for the removal of Eritrea’s President.
Rubin encourages pressuring allies of Eritrea, and invites the involvement of the National Endowment of Democracy, notorious for instigating regime-change across the globe, and judged by many to be an asset of the CIA. Rubin writes:
The State Department should make clear to the United Arab Emirates that it should cease its partnership with Africa’s most destabilizing state, one which is increasingly a partner for China. It might also convene, perhaps in conjunction with the National Endowment for Democracy, a “Future of Eritrea” project to identify and assess the areas of greatest need upon Isaias’ exit.
Human Development, Not Rules
It should be clear to any honest observer that overthrowing the government of Eritrea is not in the interests of Eritreans, nor the over three hundred million Africans living in East Africa-one third of the continent’s population. To deliberately inflict such harm and hardship on an African population that is already suffering from extreme poverty, is evil.
Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki, left, and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed talk during the inauguration of the Tibebe Ghion Specialized Hospital in Bahir Dar, northern Ethiopia, Nov. 10, 2018. (courtesy of voanews.com)
The core of the problem with Rubin and AEI, is their perverted worldview. More accurately, their demented belief structure, which is anti-human. Their diseased ideology views the world as composed of zero-sum relationships in a static universe. Only winners and losers, or victors, and victims exist according to this worldview. Or, as the saying goes, “you are either with us or against us.” Neither human beings, nor the physical universe, are organized in this fixed structure. Rather, it is change, transformation, development, negative entropy, and human creativity, which actually governs the human race and our universe. The ideological obsession of the rules-based order mind-set, which steers the actions of both U.S. political parties, and the self-destructed Biden administration, is the real danger to the wellbeing of the people of our planet. Not Afwerki, Mugabe, Hussein, China, Russia, and North Korea.
If we know, as we readily should: human beings are the only species endowed with the power of creative mentation, and nations are composed exclusively of humans. Thus, it is elementary that all foreign policy should be governed by the principle of development for the human race, not the so called rule of order dictated by Western institutions. U.S. policy has been driven by the insistence of imposing its so called rules and structures of democracy on the Global South. Ignoring that the most important principle is the promotion of life, which necessitates economic growth. When other nations, such as China, form a bond with African nations grounded in economic development, they are attacked by the rules based order and labeled a dangerous enemy. Chinese President, Xi Jinping, has been vilified, for among other strategies, his 2013 initiation of the Belt and Road Initiative and continuation of the successful, Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.
In the last six decades, only U.S. President John Kennedy has shown a genuine concern for collaborating with African leaders to promote economic development.
Rather than initiating programs and visions to foster economic growth in the Horn of Africa, as I have for the last decade, U.S. governments had fueled the flames of conflict. Most egregiously: 1) the Biden administration’s de facto support for the Tigrayan army’s attempt to militarily remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from his elected leadership of Ethiopia; 2) Biden’s refusal to support the most important project for economic growth in East Africa, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Victims of regime-change. Libya President, Umar al Qaddafi and Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein. (courtesy googlenews.com)
Not to be out done by Biden, the adherents to the rules-based order are proposing that the new Trump administration, should ignite the Horn of Africa, with U.S. support for Eritrea regime-change. How will that help Africans living in that region? It will not! Did the U.S. supported regime-change and assassination of President Gaddafi help the people of Libya and North Africa? Did the overthrow and murder of Saddam Hussein help the Iraqi people and the Middle East?
President-elect Trump has said that he rejects unnecessary foreign interventions by the U.S. If so, he should dismiss this murderously insane scheme, and work with me to bring peace and prosperity to the region through economic integration of the Horn of Africa.
As is the case with other African nations, I do not support all of Eritrea’s policies. However, thoughtful people of good will, should be able to understand the extreme harm that regime-change against the current Eritrean government would cause on the African continent. We should act, free from prejudice and the colonial past, to recognize the evil of the rules-based order, and unequivocally defend Eritrea from their assault on Africa..
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, and also publishing on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World
What is needed in the Horn of Africa, is statesmen, who understand physical economy. Meddlers and people who talk of war are not thinking clearly. You have millions of poor Africans living in this region. In some areas for decades. What is needed is physical economic growth. Instead of people reacting with old grudges, we need calm thoughtful discussion on how to eliminate poverty in this impoverished poor region of Africa. We do not need an inflow of military armaments and soldiers. We need scientists, engineers, agronomists, hydrologists, and manufacturers. Instead of spending on weapons, we should extend credit for massive investments in infrastructure.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, and also publishing on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World.”
Watch Lawrence Freeman’s interview with Addis Assefa, OBN Horn of Africa, April 23, 2024
May 4, 2024
In this interview, I presented the fallacy of thinking by the so called rules-based international order, demonstrated in their G7-Foreign Ministers Statement. The G7 statement fails to articulate any policy promoting economic development for the nations of Africa. Rather, it shamefully, merely lists the concerns and the condemnations of the G7 for several African nations.
Major topics discussed included:
The involvement of forces outside the region meddling in the affairs of the Horn of Africa for geopolitical control; usurping the authority of sovereign African nations.
The absence of motivation for any nation in the Horn of Africa to initiate military engagement with neighboring nations.
The ongoing process of regional economic integration in the Horn of Africa.
The potential for increased physical economic growth in the region resulting from the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland for port access.
The lack of a policy by the G7 rules-based order to promote physical economic growth.
The use of “climate change” to prevent African nations from using their sovereign natural resources to produce electricity for the purpose of improving the standard of living for their citizens.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, and also publishing on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World.”
Below are excerpts from my interview with ETHIOPIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION The Voice of Pan-Africanism. For the entire article by Wegayehu Muluneh, read: Ethiopia’s Evolving International Relations
Excerpted sections follow:
According to Lawrence Freeman, the most significant accomplishment for Ethiopia in foreign policy was joining the BRICS. As of January 1st, 2024, Ethiopia has become one of ten nations that comprise the BRICS, and also one of three nations on the African continent that belonged to the BRICS. Freeman believes this solidifies Ethiopia’s diplomatic position as a leading nation in sub-Saharan Africa, East Africa, and the Horn of Africa.
The analyst underlined that the formation of the BRICS and its growth institutionally over the last decade is extremely important, because the western-dominated political and financial institutions are suffering in terms of their control of the world’s politics and finances. This gives an opportunity for developing nations or emerging nations like Ethiopia to have their own institution and promote their own policies, independent of the dictates of the western geopolitical financial elite.
Lawrence Freeman said Ethiopia’s influence in Africa in general and in East Africa in particular will grow as the BRICS itself continues to become a weightier institution providing an alternative to the western political financial establishment. Whilst, this puts Ethiopia in an important and unique position on the African continent and also globally.
Ethiopia’s economic growth also instantly linked with activities the nation has carried out on its foreign relations. Prior to the emergence of COVID-19 and the onset of the war in northern Ethiopia in November 2020, Ethiopia was one among a few African and world nations with fastest growing economies. This of course was slowed down by the above-mentioned causes, Freeman explained. “However, we should expect that Ethiopia has the potential to become a leader once again in economic growth in Eastern Africa and the African continent.”
Freeman elaborated that the near completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will advance Ethiopia’s economy over the years ahead. The diplomatic activities that Ethiopia has been doing on the global stage while constructing the Dam, Africa’s flagship project, has been significant. The completion of GERD is a game changer to boost Ethiopia’s say and diplomatic bargain in the region and beyond. The GERD with only two turbines operating is already strengthening Ethiopia’s export of clean energy to Sudan, Kenya, and Djibouti. As the GERD reaches its complete potential of 5,150 megawatts, it will not only supply more energy to Ethiopia but also expand export of electricity to neighboring nations in Eastern Africa. Thus, the GERD and Ethiopia have already started causing the most demanded regional economic integration, which will expand and provide a potential model for regional economic integration.
With its electricity potential Ethiopia has the potential to become a major economic powerhouse on the continent. Thus, Ethiopia is expected to emerge as one of the most dynamic economies in the world.
Reflecting on Ethiopia’s audacious step towards regional relations, Freeman commended Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s motivation and courage in 2018 of settling past grievances over land with Eritrea, which won him the Nobel Peace Prize. However, there is no reason for anyone who understands the region, to claim that Ethiopia’s policies towards achieving a port that would give the nation access to the Red Sea, is a cause for war in the Horn of Africa. This is blatantly untrue and those who are participating in this war-mongering event may have ulterior motives for promoting this kind of scenario. War should not be on the table because it is in no country’s interest.
Ethiopia doesn’t need war to access seaports that it can develop to expand its export-import trade. Hailing the recent agreement signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland, Freeman said the agreement will enhance regional integration. The agreement speed up the growth Ethiopia’s landlocked economy by providing access to Red Sea ports, potentially boosting trade and fostering closer economic ties in the Horn region, he added.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
In my interview above with OBN (11/6/2023), I discuss the importance of understanding the concept of physical economy to competently analyze the future of the Horn of Africa. Sadly, the vast majority of Africans, like Americans, do not chose to look into the future. It is only by knowing what physical economic inputs are necessary to sustain an expanding population 20-40 years into the future that one can determine the best policies of their nation in the present. Claims of “my nation first” or “my ethnicity first,” express a short sighted mentality that is detrimental to the interests of the nations of the region. Full economic integration of the Horn of Africa, driven by investments in infrastructure, is the most reliable path to achieving peace, stability, and economic growth, and avoiding conflict.
NO WAR in the Horn of Africa! Peace, cooperation, & economic development is interest of all nations. Don’t be manipulated into war by the geopolitical motivated rules-based international (dis) order. See articles on this subject on my website: https://t.co/w9DATr3sldpic.twitter.com/zXaT7KyfSj
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
In his new article, Ethiopia needs a reliable seaport and a navy, Ken Opalo provide a great deal of useful information on the necessity for Ethiopia to have access to a sea port to continue its progress towards of industrializing its economy. It is imperative for all the nations in the Horn and East Africa to understand, it is in their self interest for Ethiopia, East Africa’s largest and fastest growing economy, to have access to a reliable port. A prosperous Ethiopia benefits the African continent.
Ethiopia’s economic case for reliable and cost-effective seaport access is strong. In order to secure its economic future, the country must minimize or completely erase the economic costs associated with being landlocked. Overall, landlocked countries tend to be 20% less developed than they would be if they had access to the sea. This is partially due to cost of trade, with transportation costs being between 50%-262% higher for landlocked countries.Subscribe
Given the significant economic costs associated with being landlocked, it is a no-brainer that for Ethiopia to achieve its ambitious developmentalist agenda — which will necessarily require export-oriented industrialization and improved agricultural productivity — it needs to have more control over trade-related costs and policy (or procure stability on both fronts from its neighbors). According to the Ethiopian government, transportation costs gobble up 16% of the value of international trade (which seems really high). Foreign trade currently amounts to 24% of GDP, and needs to grow by orders of magnitude. With an annual output of US$127b, Ethiopia is already Eastern Africa’s biggest economy (Kenya is second at US$113b) but with lots of low-hanging opportunities for even bigger trade-driven output.
His careless bluster notwithstanding, Abiy has significant leverage over Djibouti (population 1.1m). Ethiopia is Djibouti’s leading revenue generator, ahead of the naval base leases by China, France, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Italy, and Japan. Ethiopian trade reportedly generates more than US$1b each year for the Djiboutian economy. Rents from foreign military bases estimated to be at least US$120m per year. The service sector accounts for nearly 80% of Djiboutian GDP (US$3.5b in 2022), much of it related to ports and logistics. Ethiopia accounts for upwards of 85% of all cargo passing through Djibouti.
Source: World Bank data
II: The economic case for securing reliable seaport access
As shown below, over the last decade Ethiopia has quintupled its industrial output and is quickly catching up with its regional neighbors. If these trends are to continue and if Ethiopia is to attract both domestic and foreign investments into its manufacturing sector, the state must guarantee investors that they will be able to access global markets at reasonable prices. The same goes for investments in the agricultural sector, which still has a commanding share of exports. Agriculture accounts for nearly 38% of GDP (including 50% of manufacturing production), 80% of employment, and about 90% of forex earnings.
Ethiopia’s planned rail network (see below) reflects the country’s industrialization agenda (the same goes for the overall transport masterplan, including road infrastructure). The proposed lines are all designed to serve specific industrial parks. Currently the main rail network (red) terminates at Djibouti City (Doraleh Multipurpose Port), with a planned alternative route to the opposite side of the Gulf of Tadjoura (in Tadjoura). While the rail network will certainly serve domestic production and distribution of goods once completed, an equally important objective should be to guarantee high-enough international traffic volumes to pay for its construction and ongoing maintenance.
As revealed by the planned railway network below, Ethiopia’s seaport options are largely limited to Djibouti — which is cause for believing that Abiy’s comments, if he really meant them and was not just carelessly thinking out loud that he is the latter day Ras Alula Abanega, were a negotiating tactic vis-a-vis Djibouti. Given its importance for Ethiopia’s maritime trade, is also likely that Djibouti is Addis Ababa’s first choice for the location of the planned naval base.
Ethiopia’s industrial parks are in Jimma, Hawassa, Adama, Dire Dawa, Bole Lemi, Debre Birhan, Semera, Kombolcha, Bahir Dar, and Mekelle. Source: Wikipedia
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
Celebrate Ethiopia’s March 1, 1896 Victory at Adwa- A Victory For Africa and All Nations
Lawrence Freeman
February 28, 2022
This year’s celebration of the victory at Adwa, 126 years ago, has special significance. Although the war against the TPLF has largelybeen won, Ethiopia is under attack both from within and externally. The draconian House Resolution 6600, already voted up by a bi-partisan majority on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, threatens to eliminate Ethiopia’s right to be a sovereign nation. If this resolution were to be passed by the U.S. Congress, Ethiopia for the first time in its existence would become a colony under the domination of the “human rights imperialists.” Let us be clear: this resolution could only be passed by the U.S. Congress, if Speaker of the House, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, backed by the Biden administration desired it.
Let us now also celebrate, in the same spirit of Adwa on February 20, 2022, when 375 megawatts of electricity for development were generated by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Let Adwa Day and GERD Day serve to unite all Ethiopians citizens of a great nation, without regard to ethnicity. Human beings are not defined by their geography or their ethnic lineage, but rather by their sacred power of creativity, endowed by the Creator. A sovereign nation-state is not a compendium of ethno-nationalities. It is composed of citizens who identify with, and support the principles, ideals, and aspirations of their nation in the present and for the future.
Therefore, I say: Happy Adwa Day-Happy GERD Day
Celebrate Ethiopia’s March 1, 1896 Victory at Adwa: Ethiopia is Fighting Another Battle Today to Protect its Sovereignty
This edited article below was first published in the March 2017. If you read the headlines of the European press following Italy’s defeat on March1, 1896, you will see that this battle shook the foundations of European Imperialism to its core.
Today, Ethiopia is engaged in another battle for its sovereignty, no less vital than the Battle at Adwa 125 years ago. The Ethiopian nation-state is a physical unitary reality that embodies an essential concept of national identity, which transcends ethno-nationalism. Unfortunately, there are times when it is necessary to wage war to preserve the nation state, which represents the interests of all Ethiopians. Without a functioning sovereign nation-state, society cannot provide for its citizens and for future generations. In the spirit of the victory at Adwa, all Ethiopians should unite in pursing their shared common interest: the development of Ethiopia. When all Ethiopians, from all ethnic backgrounds join together to ensure the economic progress of their single homeland, then the preconditions will exist to end ethnic conflict and marginalization. The victory at Adwa belongs to and exist inside all Ethiopians. One Ethiopia! One Ethiopian identity!
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam GERD is a dam for development. It belongs to all Ethiopians and their posterity. (Courtesy wgnradio.com)
Victory at Adwa- A Victory for Africa
Lawrence Freeman
March 1, 2017
The battle of Adwa is probably the most renowned and historic battle in Ethiopian history. This celebrated victory by the Ethiopian army helped define the future of their nation, as one of only two non-colonized countries in Africa. The defeat of a European colonial empire by an African country, following the “Scramble for Africa” after the 1884-1885 Berlin conference a decade earlier, is not only a source of enduring pride and nationalism for Ethiopians, but also an inspiration to other Africans, who took up the fight for independence six decades later. Some historians suggest that this victory also led to the idea for the Pan-African movement. As a result, it is no surprise that on May 25, 1963, Ethiopia under the rule of Emperor Haile Selassie was a founding member of the Organization of African States-OAS.
Adwa, also known as Adowa, and in Italian Adua, was the capital of the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia. A late comer to grabbing territory in Africa, Italy began colonizing Somaliland and Eritrea in the 1880s. It was from the vantage point of Eritrea from where Italy launched its campaign against Ethiopia. The immediate pretext of the invasion was a dispute of Article 17 of the 1889 Treaty of Wuchale. Italy insisted that the treaty stated that Ethiopia had to submit to its imperial authority, thus effectively making Ethiopia a colony of the Kingdom of Italy. The Ethiopians resisted Italy’s military enforcement of its version of the treaty, leading to the outbreak of war in December 1894, with the Italian imperialists occupying Adwa and moving further south into Ethiopian territory.
On March 1, 1896, King Menelik II, who, commanded a force of over 70,000, defeated the Italian army, killing 7,000 of their soldiers, wounding 1,500, and capturing 3,000 prisoners, routing their enemy, and forcing them to retreat back to their colony of Eritrea. It has been speculated that, if Menelik had pursued the retreating Italian troops, and driven them off of the continent, it might have prevented a second Italian invasion.
On October 3, 1935, Italy led by fascist dictator Benito Mussolini, launched its second military incursion into sovereign Ethiopia territory. Five years later in 1941, Ethiopia once again drove the Italian invaders out of their country. The 1896 defeat of a European nation, considered an advanced country, by Ethiopia, viewed as a backward Africa country, led to riots on the streets of Italy and well deserved consternation in the capitals of European powers.
Without taking the time now to review the ninety years of Ethiopian history following this famous battle, the military defeat of Ethiopia’s dictatorial Derg Regime in 1991 brings us to the beginning of contemporary Ethiopia. When the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front-EPRDF assumed control of the government in 1991, it was led by the now deceased, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who initiated the economic policies that have guided Ethiopia for over 25 years. In Ethiopia’s Developmental State, the government comprehended that the state itself performed an indispensable role in fostering economic development. This is what distinguishes Ethiopia today from all other sub-Saharan African nations.
The state is not “a night watchman,” but rather an active participant promoting economic growth for the benefit of its people. Ethiopia is a poor country with a population approaching one hundred million, not endowed with rich mineral or hydrocarbon resources, and repeatedly struck by drought. Yet it has emerged in recent years with a rapidly growing economy.
In collaboration with China, Ethiopia operates the first electrified train in sub-Saharan Africa, traveling 750 kilometers in seven hours from Addis Ababa to Djibouti, establishing a port to export Ethiopia’s products. Their highway system consisting of toll roads, highways, and all weather roads will connect their light manufacturing industries to the port in Djibouti via their new rail line. As a result of coherent policy planning in energy infrastructure, the Gibe III hydroelectric power plant has now added 1,872 of megawatts to the country’s electricity grid, and over the next two years, the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) will add an additional 6,000 megawatts, making Ethiopia the second largest producer of power in sub-Saharan Africa, behind South Africa. The next step to develop the Horn of Africa is for Ethiopia, Sudan, and Kenya to extend their rails lines to become the eastern leg of an East-West railroad. Thus, would transform Africa by connecting the Gulf of Eden/Indian Ocean with the Atlantic Ocean, creating an economic corridor that would literally revolutionize the economic power of the continent; contributing to the ending of poverty, hunger, and war.
One cannot deny the success of Ethiopia’s unique path of development, nor can one omit the vital role contributed to this process by Ethiopia’s successful resistance to foreign occupation; thus, never having to suffer the dehumanizing effects of colonialism.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton.
