Develop the ports on the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to promote regional economic growth in the Horn of Africa. (curtesy of dawn.com.news)
October 31, 2023
Horn Leaders Urged to Consider Ethiopia’s Quest for Access to Red Sea
Addis Ababa, October 31/2023 (ENA)- Leaders of the Horn of Africa nations have to consider discussing Ethiopia’s quest for having access to sea as it would increase the physical economic growth of the East African region, the American political-economic analyst Lawrence Freeman told ENA.
Prime Minister Abiy has given geographical, historical, economic backgrounds to initiate discussion about Ethiopia’s right to access sea through peaceful means.
The American analyst stated that access to sea not only reinforces the steadily growing import-export trade of the second Africa’s populous nation, but will also ensure development in the region.
For him, Ethiopia’s quest for coastal access to sea outlets “is essentially correct” as it would enable to increase physical economic growth of the people in the Horn of Africa.
“If people understand more about physical economic growth, they would understand that this is not only very reasonable, but it’s correct. If you want to raise the standard of living for 200 million people living in countries in the Horn, then you would benefit from the trade that could be increased in Ethiopia by having a port on the Red Sea.”
In this regard, the analyst urged leaders of the Horn of Africa nations to have discussion to consider Ethiopia’s quest for having access to sea.
Prime Minister Abiy has suggested potential areas like the Ethiopian Airlines, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and other offers for concession, Freeman stated.
This is perfectly reasonable for the growing Ethiopian economy, he noted.
“The Prime Minister is putting these issues on the table now. (He says) let’s discuss how we are going to bring this about. And I think that’s the approach of a statesman and I would agree with it.”
Access to port is critical to accelerate the growth trajectory of the country and contribute to regional physical economic growth.
Lawrence Freeman, a physical economist, interviewed by Ethiopian News Agency-ENA
“If we look at how we increase the physical economic growth of the people in the Horn of Africa, it is going to depend on Ethiopia. Ethiopia is going to be the dominant economic growth center. And this will benefit all the other countries.
“It’s (therefore) natural to work this out. And I believe this is now an important discussion that has been raised by Prime Minister Abiy. This will be worked out over the years ahead,” Freeman noted.
He also stressed the need for discussion about a regional economic approach since there are several ports in the Horn.
Mentioning about distorted media reports that Ethiopia is claiming access to sea using force if necessary, Freeman noted that this is a very divisive policy that has been used in Africa for hundreds of years.
“We need political leaders and statesmen who rise above this and understand that these are political operations. Some are carried out externally or internally. And the purpose is to prevent the development and sovereignty of African nations. I think the leaders of the nations in the region can sit down and discuss how the region will grow economically.”
“If we concentrate on putting forth the long-term economic growth program that benefits all the nations of the region, the leaders would come to agreement.”
We should also be able to counter those media and other internal and external enemies trying to create tensions between the neighboring countries.
There is no objective reason for countries in the Horn of Africa not to work together for common aims.
Discussions should, therefore, be considered among leaders, experts in the area, including economic experts, water experts and transportation specialists on access to the Red Sea, the analyst stated.
Freeman hopes that this can be done through discussion among sovereign leaders of nation states, including presidents and prime ministers, to deal with the problem.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
Abebe Bikila running barefoot at the 1960 Olympics in Rome. The Ethiopian native took gold in that race, crossing the finish line in a record time of 2:15:16.
October 8, 2023
On Saturday, September 23, 2023, the much-anticipated 2023 Bikila Award Celebration and Gala Dinner graced the splendid venue of Daniels Spectrum in Toronto.
Distinguished guests and luminaries gathered to make this night an unforgettable experience. Hon. Dr. Jean Augustine, an iconic trailblazer and past member of the Canadian Parliament, captivated everyone with her presence. Renowned author and Africa’s trusted Political-Economic Analyst, Dr. Lawrence Freeman, shared invaluable insights.
The mission of Bikila Award is to foster academic, professional, and business excellence and promote volunteerism among persons of Ethiopian origin, primarily through award and recognition. Bikila Award is created mainly to empower young people to reach their highest potential and to celebrate their achievements.
Bikila Award realizes its mission by undertaking various relevant activities including but not limited to:
Honoring students, professionals, businesspersons, and volunteers deserving recognition;
Creating awards, scholarships, and bursaries;
Organizing events to celebrate and communicate the achievements of community members as well as friends of Ethiopia.
The 2023 Bikila Awards MC, Guest Speakers, Award Recipients with the President of Bikila Award. Tessema Mulugeta, President, kneeling in front.
The Bikila Award www.bikilaaward.org was conceived over a decade ago, officially founded in July 2013, and conducted its first Bikila Award celebration in 2014.
This year, the Bikila Award ceremony took on special significance, given the tensions that exist in Ethiopia, today. The accomplishments of Captain Abebe Bikila, who demonstrated unique qualities of courage and determination, are well known to Ethiopians. As a historical personage, he can also function as a unifying figure for all Ethiopians, across all ethnic boundaries. For this reason, we can say unequivocally, that those responsible for this year’s Bikila Award celebration are performing an invaluable service for their homeland, Ethiopia.
Both Abebe Bikila, and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, are national treasures that dwell in the hearts and minds of all Ethiopians and can serve to unite the culturally rich great nation of Ethiopia.
I had the honor and privilege of being the keynote speaker to over four hundred guests gathered to celebrate the achievements of Ethiopians.
Lawrence Freeman addressing the Bikila Award Gala Dinner, Toronto, Canada, September 23, 2023
Lawrence Freeman’s Presentation:We Live For the Future
I am honored and happy to be with you tonight.
Captain Abebe Bikila is known for his courage and determination to succeed, as demonstrated in his victory in the Olympic marathon in 1960 in Rome, Italy; without his shoes. I am a long distance hiker and backpacker on the mountains of the East Coast of the United States, hiking several hundred miles a year. However, I could not do it without a sturdy pair of hiking boots.
Our World Has Indelibly Changed
Over the course of the last month, the world has been transformed. Not instantly, but in potential. This emphatically includes changes for Ethiopia and Africa as well. Africa and the Global South are moving in a new direction that we have not seen for several decades. The call for a New Just Economic World Order, prevalent in the 1970s and 1980s, has been taken up again in a new form.
Let Me Explain.
First, at the 15th Summit of the BRICS, from August 22nd to 24th, it was decided to add 6 additional nations to become new members in January of 2024. This has transformed political-economic relations among nations on our planet. The BRICS in its embryonic form creates a new potential for development, especially among what we call the Global South or the South-South nations. As a result, the world, implicitly our universe, will never be the same, and there’s no going back to the way it was before.
We witnessed just last week, at the Group of 77 plus China, meeting in Cuba, a continuation of this new direction by the Global South. These multi-polar institutions are committed to cooperating in the mission to develop their nations and provide a better quality of life for their citizens.
There is now an undeniable alternative emerging to the dominance of the Western institutions, with their perverted geopolitical zero-sum doctrine of only winners and losers. The old order no longer unilaterally controls the world with their so called, international rules-based order. Of special importance for Africa, two of the new BRICS members are: Egypt and Ethiopia.
The second major event occurred earlier this month, on the eve of the Ethiopian New Year. It is when the reservoir of water contained by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reached the level of 42 billion cubic meters of water in its fourth filling. This is a milestone for Ethiopia, for the Horn of Africa, and for the entire African continent. Over the course of the next two years the reservoir will reach the capacity to hold 74 billion cubic meters of water and 11 additional turbines will be installed. Thus, the GERD in 2025 will have, with 13 operating turbines, an installed capacity to generate 5,150 megawatts of power, yielding an estimated 16,000 MW hours of electricity. This changes everything for the people of Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam-GERD. Ethiopia’s transformative infrastructure project.
What I have identified are: new potentials for development of Ethiopia and Africa. This means there will be many new possibilities for families to improve the quality of life and raise their standard of living for themselves and their children. With this new injection of power from the GERD, more Ethiopians will have access to electricity. It will also enable manufacturing and agriculture to expand and allow Ethiopia’s economy to begin the path towards industrialization. Ethiopia’s GERD is already exporting electricity to neighboring nations and this will increase when the GERD is completed.
The GERD, like Abebe Bikila is a national unifying symbol for Ethiopia.
New Prospects For Ethiopia With BRICS and GERD
These new potentials will present a new geometry for Ethiopia. A developing, economically expanding nation will require more and more young people to apply themselves in advancing their economy to higher levels of productivity. To increase the productive powers of labor we require new scientific discoveries. New technologies created from these new discoveries will enable society to advance to a higher mode of economic production. This will place a premium on engineering and scientific research. The youth of Ethiopia will become an essential segment of the labor force, driving the development of their nation and securing a prosperous future for a growing population.
As a physical economist I understand that without the material improvement of life for the people of a nation, there will be no peace or stability. That said, the essence of a nation’s policy should be on the development of the minds of its population, especially its youth.
Only human beings are endowed with the potential of creativity. Creative thought is not reproducible by computers or so-called Artificial Intelligence. The human mind alone is capable of discovery, of hypothesizing and testing new physical principles of the universe. That means each mind of each human being is vital for a nation’s future. Each human being is sacred because it possesses a mind-soul. Contrary to the foolishness of pseudo economists, it is the human mind that is the source of all wealth for society.
The GERD for example, a marvelous engineering structure between two mountains, which I visited in December 2022, is a perfect example of humankind’s creative intervention on the physical universe.
Therefore, every nation should have a twofold interconnected policy for its citizens, which is:
To ensure an improving standard of living for the population, freeing its citizens from the daily insecurities of providing food, income, and housing. With the material necessities of life secured, the nurturing of the creative imagination of each child becomes society’s primary responsibility.
These young woman are the future.
It Is All About The Future
Ethiopia with a 115 million people, and the African continent with its population of 1.5 billion (and growing), can have a bright future employing all these potentially creative minds in contributing to the betterment of society.
Human beings, unlike all other animals, are uniquely capable of thinking about the future. Animals only exist in the here and now. We human beings are fundamentally different. Although we physically live in the present, we act for the future.
Qualified leaders think one to two generations into the future with a vision for their nation. Mothers and fathers think about what actions they can take in their lifetimes that will contribute to a better future for their children and grandchildren. Competent economists and economic planners focus on investments in technological awakenments today that will result in an increase in the productivity of the society tomorrow.
The world is entering a new epoch. We can create a new paradigm with new multi-polar institutions committed to development. We now have a new potential future in front of us if we have the wisdom and willpower to realize it. Let us have the same determination to reach our objective for a better humanity, that Abebe Bikila had in winning the 1960 Olympic marathon.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com.
After pressing play, the discussion begins in eight minutes with opening remarks of Lawrence Freeman.
Over the course of the last three weeks, two major developments have occurred that potentially will transform the quality of life for Ethiopia, and all the nations we now refer to as, The Global South. I’m referring to two singular events. One, the 4th filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the eve of the Ethiopian New Year. Two, the 15th BRICKS Summit (August 22-24) in Johannesburg South Africa, that added six new nations, which included Egypt and Ethiopia. These two developments occurring over a span of approximately three weeks have now changed Ethiopia, have changed Africa, and have actually changed the world.
As of January 2024, the BRICS will expand from its current five members; Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, to eleven nations by adding; Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Argentina. The world, the physical universe we live in, has changed; and our planet will never go back to the way it was before. The newly expanded BRICS, with its own Development Bank, is in its embryonic stage of becoming an alternative political-economic institution to the so called, rules-based international order. Ethiopia’s GERD is now irreversibly poised within the next two years, to inject 5,150 megawatts of power to the African continent.
On Sunday, September 10th, an extensive detailed examination of the significance of the 4th filling of the GERD was discussed on Twitter (see link above) by a panel of experts, which included myself.
Briefly. The GERD reservoir now contains 42 billion cubic meters (bcm) of water, just 7 bcm short of the requirement to fill the dam. During the course of the rainy season the water level will increase another 25 bcm to obtain its full capacity of 74 bcm once the walls are raised another 25 meters to reach the height of 645 meters above sea level.
With the addition of eleven more turbines operating at 400 megawatts (MW) each, to the current two turbines operating at 375 MW each, the GERD is projected to generate approximately 16,000 megawatt hours of electricity. This will enable Ethiopia to provide electricity to its population, expand its manufacturing sector, industrialize its economy, and export electricity to neighboring nations in the Horn of Africa. Resulting in a complete transformation of the Ethiopian economy and its society. This dam will have no negative effect on the downstream nations. The GERD is a dam for development of Ethiopia, the Horn of Africa, and the entire Nile Basin. The African continent will benefit, and now has a model for other nations to follow.
By listening to our conversation, you will learn a great deal about the current stage of development of the GERD and its potential for Ethiopia.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com.
Dr. Ergogie, Minister of Women and Social Affairs, standing fourth from right, in front of the conference hall.
June 8, 2023
Ethiopia’s Ministry of Women and Social Affairs (MoWSA) organized a two day conference, May 23-24, held in the Nelson Mandela Plenary Hall, at the African Union Commission, Addis Ababa. The theme of the deliberations was, Social Protection for Nation Building in Ethiopia. As part of Ethiopia’s effort to reduce poverty, and expand economic growth, additional social protection programs are necessary to provide for the vulnerable portions of the population.
The several hundred attendees were welcomed by H.E. Dr. Ergogie Tesfaye, the highly qualified Minister of MoWSA. The conference was key noted by H.E. Demeke Mekonnen, Deputy Prime Minister, and Minister of Foreign Affairs.
The conference concluded with a Call Of Action with five central objectives, of which I highlight the first, the third and the fifth.
1. Policy Framework and coordination
1.1 Revise the social protection policy and strategy to ensure alignment with the national Ten Years Development Plan, relevance for meeting the current needs of the most vulnerable, and ambition to progressively build a universal social protection system.
1.2 Establish a Social Protection Council to guide, coordinate and oversee the implementation of the social protection policy, strategy, and programming.
3. Coverage and inclusion
3.1 Progressively expand coverage of social protection, ensuring the inclusion and protection of those most in need, including informal workers, people with disabilities, internally displaced people, and refugees.
3.2 Enhance nutrition, protection, and gender sensitivity within social protection programming, and ensure greater access to social services, including community-based health insurance.
5. Jobs and economic inclusion
5.1 Ensure a more inclusive economy and labor market, by increasing access to decent jobs, incomes, and entrepreneurship opportunities for volunteer groups.
5.2 Adopt a government led harmonized framework for the delivery and design of economic inclusion/self-employment/graduation programs for better impact at scale.
Below is an edited version of my remarks, delivered in the afternoon plenary session on May 23, 2023.
Lawrence Freeman addressing the conference on May 23, in the Nelson Mandela Plenary Hall, African Union Commission
“Human Creativity is the Source of Wealth and Why Social Protection is Necessary”
I am honored to be here today.
The Ministry of Women and Social Affairs, under the leadership of Dr. Ergogie, is addressing a critically important topic. As a physical economist, I will add my unique view of the issue that is being discussed in this two day conference.
Why is it important to care, protect, and develop each citizen of the nation, especially the youth? It is more than just a moral and cultural imperative: it is essential for economic growth. And economic growth is fundamental to the peace, prosperity, and stability of a nation. Poverty and hunger are the enemies of peace and democracy.
Contrary to what you may have heard; free trade, supply and demand, the invisible hand of the marketplace, are not the cause of economic growth. The source of all wealth is the individual, more precisely the human mind. The mind is the creator of wealth, through its power to discover new scientific principles embedded in the universe.
Only human beings-every human-is born with the innate potential of creativity. It is from that power of the human mind that new technologies and inventions are introduced into the economic process. Through the introduction of more advanced technologies, we increase the productive powers of labor to produce more wealth with equal or less effort.
Thus, the elected government is responsible, nay obligated, to protect and care for all of its citizens. Governments must provide for the material necessities of life AND nurture the creative power of the individual. Government must make an extra effort to provide for those most in need, especially our children, because these creative minds must be developed to become productive members of our society and economy. They are the future.
The most vulnerable are no less precious as potential contributors to the production of wealth for their nation. Therefore, it is not an option, but a necessity to care and develop each child, and each citizen.
President Franklin Delano Roosevelt understood that every member of society is important, and he initiated innovative programs to provide care for people of the U.S. “from the cradle to the grave.” The cornerstone of this became the Social Security system of the United States.
Economic growth is indispensable to build a nation. This requires the contribution from all of its citizens. I recognize that economic development is a human right. Unfortunately, the United Nations does not. However, the African Union does recognize “social protection and an adequate standard of living” is a human right. Also, the African Charter, article 22, stipulates that economic development, is in fact, a human right.
Lawrence Freeman, giving Dr. Egogie, a new book on the Grand Ethiopian Renassiance Dam, “How It Happened” by Dr. Dereje Tessema,
From my standpoint, not only is economic development a human right, but electricity is a human right, because without power, economies cannot prosper, and the people of that society will have a diminished standard of living. There will be no growth, no progress for society, without electricity, and without vital infrastructure.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam-GERD, which I visited in December of 2022, will produce 5,150 megawatts of power when completed. The functioning of the GERD will advance the nation, improve the lives of the citizens of Ethiopia, and will help drive economic development in the East Africa region. The GERD will contribute to peace and stability throughout the Horn of Africa and the Nile Basin.
Now let me return to where I started in my presentation. The GERD is a creative act of humankind, a human intervention into the physical environment (physical universe) to capture-create the power of electricity from a river that has been flowing for five million years. Thus, as I emphasized at the beginning of my remarks, the construction of the GERD proves that human creativity is the source of wealth for society.
Thank you very much.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
Watch the 60 minute video above. On April 13, 2023, Dr. Brook Hailu, of Nahoo tv, interviewed me on the weekly broadcast, Voice of The Diaspora . We had an extensive discussion on the GERD, Ethiopia, Africa, geopolitics, and human crieatvitiy in economics. With the creation, and self financing of the GERD, Ethiopia is breaking through the mentality that African nations will always be poor and underdeveloped.
Watch the 20 mimute video below. Lawrence Freeman, was the lead presenter in the book launch of a new book on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam-GERD, at . Georgetown University, Washington DC, on April 29, 2023
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
Lawrence Freeman, delivering the opening presentation at the launch of a new book on the GERD, written by Dereje Tessema.
May 7, 2023
Below are my remarks at the book launch at Georgetown University, Washington, DC on April 29, 2023
We discussed the contribution by author Dereje Tessema, in his new I unique book: How This Happened: Demystifying The Nile, History and Events Leading to the Realization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (amazon.com/HOW-this-HAPPENED-Demystifying-Realization)
In my brief presentation (see below), as the lead presenter, I reviwed the history of the battle in the Nile Basin of colonialism versus economic development, and the positive role of the United States in identifying the GERD, sixty years ago.
Greetings!
It is an honor to be here with all these distinguished panelists and for me to speak on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam–The GERD. Here we are, discussing this new fascinating book on the GERD, 12 years after the first brick was laid by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi on April 11, 2011.
I had the wonderful opportunity to visit the GERD and get a tour by the deputy project manager in December of 2022 on my last visit to Ethiopia.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under constrcution
It was a magnificent sight. You have this huge scientific engineering marvel–a great infrastructure project built between two mountains over the Blue Nile-the Abbay River. The water has been flowing through this area into the White Nile from lake Tana for approximately 5 million years. And The Ethiopians, to their credit, realized that they can make this lazy river do some actual work. They understood that the Abby could be exploited for the benefit of humankind by making this unproductive river produce electricity for Africa. Electricity, in my view, as a physical economist, is the most vital category of hard infrastructure that Africa is lacking. Africans suffer every day from a gross deficiency in electricity. The Ethiopians by 2025, when all 11 turbines are projected to be functioning, will add 5,150 megawatts of electricity to their grid. This will be the biggest new injection of electricity on the African continent.
For me it was exceptionally exciting to visit the GERD. Because it confirmed to me: that humankind, through the exercise of our uniquely human creative imagination, intervenes upon the physical universe, to improve the conditions of life for us human beings. This understanding of human creativity is the underpinning of my philosophy about the universe and the foundation of my economic thinking.
The Ethiopian people and successive Ethiopian governments should be congratulated for self-funding and constructing the GERD. It does not just benefit Ethiopia, but the GERD enhances the entire Nile Basin, including Egypt and Sudan.
One of the most interesting features in this book, among many, is the several hundred year history of the White and Blue Nile River Basins. The key issue which I believe characterizes this 300 year conflict is: the right to utilize the resource of the Blue Nile for the development of the Ethiopian nation and its people. This history is relevant to the efforts today, by some, to prevent the dam from reaching its full productivity; though I am convinced the anti-GERD campaign will not be successful.
Colonial Mentality Over the Nile
As part of their imperialist policy, the British were obsessed with the Nile River Basin, as part of their plans to control indirectly or directly the entire eastern spine of Africa from Egypt to South Africa. Through their control of Egypt, nominally part of the Ottoman Empire, first through Pasha Muhammad Ali and then later his nephew, Khedive Ismail, and finally the outright conquering of Egypt militarily at the end of the 1800s, the British believed that they owned the Nile. Though several battles were waged by the Egyptians against Ethiopia, the Egyptians like the Italians years later at Adwa, were unable to militarily defeat and conquer Ethiopia. The British in their attempt to be the overlord of the entire Nile River Basin, were intent not to allow Ethiopia to develop its own productive capabilities, which most definitely would involve utilizing the water from Lake Tana.
The author, Dereje Tessema, presenting his conception and motivation for wrting his book: How This Happened: Demystifying The Nile, History and Events Leading to the Realization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) .
There were over two dozen treaties and official diplomatic exchanges from 1891 to 2015 concerning the Nile that affected Ethiopia. I will highlight only a few.
As early as the 1891 protocol between the United Kingdom and Italy, Britain made very clear that it would recognize Italy’s control of the northern part of Ethiopia, which is now Eritrea, in return, the Italian government would agree not to obstruct the flow of water from the Atbara River that is one of the three main tributaries, that supply 85% of the water into the White Nile. In 1899 the British with the Egyptians created the Anglo Egyptian Condominium ,which effectively allowed the British through Egypt to govern Sudan. This was another step in the process of the British attempt to have control over the entire Nile River system. It is interesting to note that it was also in 1899 that the British began the construction of the Aswan Low Dam that was completed in 1902. This of course was replaced several decades later by the larger High Aswan Dam.
In the 1902 Anglo Ethiopia Treaty to delineate the borders between Sudan and Ethiopia, the British included a demand that Emperor Menelik II, could not obstruct the flow of any water into the Nile by building anything across the Blue Nile, Lake Tana, or the Sobat River. The British intended never to allow Ethiopia to utilize the Blue Nile for the benefit of its people. The British did not want an independent, developing nation disrupting their plans for the Nile Basin. Rather, they envisioned, utilizing Lake Tana to as a large rain fed storage area, releasing water during the dry season for the agriculture-irrigation schemes in the downstream nations of Egypt and Sudan.
In the 1920s, prior to Mussolini’s invasion in 1935, Britain made clear to the Italians that it would be happy to have Lake Tana controlled-protected from Ethiopia’s utilization by a nation friendly to Britain.
The 1929 Water Agreement between the British, Egypt and Sudan, codified Egypt’s so called natural and historical rights to the Nile. The agreement allocated 48 billion cubic meters of Nile water to Egypt and 4 billion to Sudan–less than 1% of the total 52bcm. The agreement also gave Egypt the right to prevent construction of any project on the Nile that would reduce the flow of the Nile water to Egypt. Ethiopia was not part of this agreement and was not in attendance even though it was an independent sovereign nation that provided the majority of Nile water joining the White Nile under the Khartoum- Omdurman bridge.
Ethiopian Ambassador, Seleshi Bekele, speaking at the book launch. To his right, is retired US Ambassador, David Shinn.
The 1959 Water Agreement between the Republics of Sudan and Egypt increased the water allocations for both countries. Egypt would now receive 55.5 billion cubic meters of water, and Sudan would receive 18.5 bcm. The agreement also allowed Egypt to construct the Aswan High Dam and for Sudan to construct the Rosaries dam, on the Blue Nile, which I visited many years ago. This new water agreement also stipulated again that no other construction could be built on the Nile, implicitly the Blue Nile as well. Essentially this agreement gave Egypt and Sudan veto power against the right of Ethiopia to erect its own dam on its own sovereign territory. Again, Ethiopia was not a participant to this agreement. To my knowledge, Ethiopia has not been a party to any official water agreement with Sudan and Egypt regarding the rights to develop the Blue Nile Basin, even during the negotiations in the Trump administration.
Potential of Blue Nile Basin
Two years before the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Water agreement, Ethiopia officially severed itself from the colonial mentality regarding the Nile, by informing Egypt, on September 23, 1957, that Ethiopia will utilize it water resources for irrigation and hydropower. Quoting the diplomatic note (Part I, Chapter 3, page 50):
Ethiopia has the right and obligation to exploit its water resources for the benefit of its present and future generations of its citizens and must, therefore reassert and reserve now and for the future, the right to take all the measures in respect of its water resources.
Reflecting the better period of United States, when our foreign policy reflected our commitment for development in Africa, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and the U.S. Department of the Interior, signed an agreement with the Ethiopian government to investigate the land and water resources of the Blue Nile River Basin. The project began in 1958, was completed in 1963, and its findings were published in 1964. The report was seven volumes and referred to as the Nile Report. Quoting Dereje (page 54 of the same chapter of his book):
The author signing his new book at the conclusion of the event.
The purpose of this program was to: a) investigate the land and water resources of the Blue Nile River Basin; b) assist in the establishment of an appropriate administrative and engineering organization within the Imperial Ethiopian Government; and c) train Ethiopian personnel in the various disciplines as appropriate.
The other major study of the Blue Nile Basin, was The Abbay River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan, initiated in 1994 and completed in 1998. Dereje documents that in the twentieth century there have been more than 18 feasibility studies of the Nile and Blue Nile River Basin, investigating potential projects for irrigation and hydropower.
The 1957-1964 Nile Report examined the potential of 32 irrigation and energy projects in the Blue Nile River Basin, which are listed in this book on pages 259-260. Four potential dam sites were proposed that could provide sufficient electrical power to satisfy domestic consumption and export to other nations in East Africa. The study identified four potential hydropower projects described on pages 262-266. One of the four hydro-power sites, that the Nile Report called the Border Dam, is today, known as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
The author celebrating with his family.
In Conclusion
As we are assembled here today discussing the contribution of this new treatise on the GERD by Dereje , we should remember what Emperor Haile Selassie said in the 1960s, when he was unable to secure funding for the various irrigation and hydropower projects identified in the 1957-1964 Nile Report. (Quoting from Part V, Chapter 17, page 334): Emperor Selassie said:
We don’t have the capacity to build a dam on the Abbay at this time. Friendly countries will not support this endeavor for fear of antagonizing Egypt. However, the future generations will build it using its own resources. Keep the study safe.
We are less than two years away from celebrating the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with GERD DAY, my proposal for a new national Ethiopian holiday.
Topic: Book Launch and Panel Discussion-How this Happened: Demystifying the Nile-History and Events Leading to the Realization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Date: Saturday, April 29, 2023 Time: 2:00-5:00 PM EST Venue: In person – Georgetown University, Intercultural Center (ICC), DC (Public parking is available at the Southwest Garage. Use 3611 Canal Road as the address for GPS direction to the parking garage. Sign posts will be available to direct guests to the Center) Virtual: Zoom Link (Registration Required) https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_HjSqlMAsQBK72cadz3XCNw Abstract Competition over limited resources, including freshwater management and use, was and continues to be a source of conflict. Unresolved, these issues could affect political relations between riparian states and may exacerbate existing tensions, increase regional instability, and provoke social unrest. The 2018 research by the European Joint Research Center shows that the Nile is the second riskiest basin next to the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin in terms of hydro political issues arising. Eleven riparian states with a total population of over 530 million (2022 UN population report) share the river marking the Nile as the second densely populated basin, next to the Ganges River basin. In his latest book How this Happened: Demystifying the Nile – History and Events Leading to the Realization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (Gashe Publishing 2023), Dereje Tessema, a research fellow at the Nile House and adjunct facility at Georgetown University, discusses events that started thousands of years ago, culminating in the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). In this six part book he documented the geo- and hydro-politics, diplomacy, international water law, treaties, and agreements. He also provided an overview of the science of the Nile River, the relationship of riparian countries to the river, the project management aspect of the dam, and finally, a recount of his trips from the two sources to the mouth of the Nile River.This panel discussion is designed to give the book launch event participants the opportunity to hear from experts, policy makers, and scholar-practitioners on these five domains.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
I will be a featured speaker, along with many specialists, at this book launch on April 29, at Georgetown University, in Washington, D.C.This new book is treasure trove of information regarding the history, science, and geography related to the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The GERD is not only a game changer for Ethiopia, but also for the whole African continent. It demonstrates that African nations do not have to remain economically backward and underdeveloped. That they can make sovereign decisions to pursue policies for the development of their nation that will benefit their people.
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Click on link below for schedule and speakers’ profiles
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam-GERD, built on Ethiopia’s Blue Nile River will be completed in 2025 with an installed capacity to generate 5,150 megawatts of electricity. This will not only provide increased access of electricity to the Ethiopian population, but supply much needed energy to the nations of the Horn of Africa as well.
January 16, 2023
On December 19, 2022, I was given a VIP tour of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, known as the GERD. It was an exciting and joyful experience for me to examine this massive infrastructure project constructed by an emerging sub-Saharan African nation. It is proof that humankind is capable, nay obliged, to intervene upon the physical universe for the betterment of the human race i.e., progress for our civilization. The GERD, when completed, will generate from its thirteen turbines a total of 5,150 megawatts (MW) of electricity for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. The GERD is a dam for development. Already, with just 750 MW being produced from two of the GERD’s functioning turbines, Ethiopia is already exporting electricity to Djibouti, Kenya, and Sudan. Additionally, Ethiopia has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with South Sudan to sell electricity.
Upon completion, the GERD will be the largest hydro-electric dam on the African continent and the seventh largest in the world. For this accomplishment, the Ethiopian people and their leadership should be praised for initiating such a grand endeavor over a decade ago, that is today contributing to the transformation of the African continent.
The GERD left, author being briefed the Deputy Project Manager
A Source of Pride
The GERD is located at the Guba district in the Benishangul-Gumuz regional state of Ethiopia, 20 kilometers (km) (13 miles) upstream from the Sudan border, a driving distance of 729 km (453 miles) from Addis Ababa. Construction began in 2011 to capture the hydro-energy potential of the Blue Nile, a winding river of 1,450 km (910 miles) flowing down from Lake Tana, nestled in Ethiopia’s dense range of mountains. The Blue Nile, which joins the White Nile in Sudan under the bridge connecting Khartoum and Omdurman, provides over 80% of the volume of Nile waters that flow north through Egypt to the Mediterranean Sea. Ethiopians, refer to the Blue Nile, which contains 70% of the country’s river systems, as Abay River. “’Abay’ is derived from the Ge’ez word for ‘great’ to imply that it is ‘the river of rivers’.”*
The Ethiopian people self-financed the $5 billion cost of the GERD. No international loans were issued by Western financial institutions. Nor did China provide any financial assistance, contrary to those maligning China’s relationship with Ethiopia and with Africa. As a result, the GERD is sovereignly owned by the Ethiopian people. It is a well-deserved source of pride and national identity, much like the victory of Menelik II against the invading Italian army at Adwa, on March 1, 1896. Recognizing this accomplishment, I have suggested that upon completion of the GERD, Ethiopia should establish a new holiday that will be called, “GERD Day.”
The author standing in front of a painting of the completed GERD pointing to the Amharic words that mean “Our Pride.”
Humans Create Wealth
Standing at the top of the dam’s wall, the GERD, erected between two mountains, with its vast reservoir, is resplendent in its beauty. However, it is more than simple splendor. The GERD is a potent demonstration of the power of human creativity, and humankind’s harmony with the physical universe. All infrastructure is the product of human intervention. We human beings alter the physical universe by creating improvements. This noetic-creative process of the mind is actually transforming our planet, and implicitly the universe, for the advancement of humankind . It is the lack of infrastructure that is killing Africa and harming my United States as well.
The modern form of Lake Tana is estimated to be 5 million years old. Therefore, it is reasonable to estimate, that the Blue Nile, which emanates from Lake Tana’s waterfalls, is millions of years old as well. Thus, the Blue Nile has flowed into the White Nile, unexploited for millennium, before creative Ethiopians willfully decided to make this “lazy river” do some work i.e., produce energy for the progress of civilization.
The GERD situated between two mountains over the Blue Nile River
Given the staggering paucity of energy in sub-Saharan Africa, this injection of 5,150 MW is essential to preserve human life, which depends on energy for all its productive activity. The GERD will significantly improve Ethiopians access to electricity, which is currently estimated at 50%. Energy from the GERD will contribute to powering the industrialization of Ethiopia and will also benefit the greater Horn of Africa.
It is all but impossible for any visitor to the GERD not to marvel at this engineering achievement, but for me, it has additional significance. As a physical economist, I understand the vital role that infrastructure performs in a successful economy. Unlike simple financial transactions, services, and even tourism, all of which macro economists include in computing the GDP of an economy, hard infrastructure is unique. It inserts value by enhancing the productive process, which results in the creation of additional wealth for society. Infrastructure, a physical input, increases productivity, enabling the economy to expand (produce more tangible wealth) at a faster rate during the ensuing production cycle. All economies function on and within a given integrated infrastructure platform. A more technologically advanced platform creates more wealth and profitability for the entire economy/society. An economy without energy, a density of paved roads, and railroads per area, is doomed to create misery and death for its population.
Thus, the GERD, a human intrusion into nature, not only produces desperately needed energy, but raises Ethiopia’s infrastructure platform to a more advanced level that will permeate the entire productive process of the economy.
The author examining the control panel above, and in front one of the operating turbines below.
A Scientific-Engineering Wonder
The height of the dam is 145 meters and is 645 meters above sea level. Its length is 1,780 meters. The reservoir surface area is 1,874 km squared, and will hold 74 billion cubic meters of water. When the water level in the reservoir reaches a height of 640 meters above sea level, it will start flowing into the power generation structure of the dam. There will be 13 independent waterways supplying water to the turbines below through installed pipes, 8.5 meters wide. This directed water flow will rotate the turbines, producing a maximum of 400 MW of electricity per turbine. The water from the reservoir will descend by gravity 123 meters from the head (where the water enters) to the turbines below, at a flow rate of 330 cubic meters per second. These two parameters determine the potential electrical power that can be generated through rotating the turbines 125 times per minute across a magnetic field. U.S. based General Electric (GE) is supplying 5 of the 13 turbines. Presently there are two GE made turbines producing 375 MW each, which has added 500 MW of electricity to Ethiopia’s national grid. This has enabled Ethiopia to export 275 MW of electricity to its neighbors; 75 MW to Djibouti, 100 MW to Sudan, and 100 MW to Kenya. Both these turbines went into operation in 2022. The additional 11 turbines will produce 400 MW each, yielding a total output of 5,150 MW, with average annual energy production about 16,692 gigawatt hours, generated from the GERD.
Building new pipes above to carry water to new turbines being built below
The GERD Is For Africa
The GERD will insert over 5,000 MW of renewable electricity into an African sub-continent starved for power. With its already existing sources of energy, the GERD will make Ethiopia second to South Africa in generation of electricity in sub-Saharan Africa. While this amount of additional electricity is desperately needed, my calculations are that to transform African nations into modern industrialized economies, a minimum of 1,000 gigawatts of power has to be added to national grids. It would be wise for more African nations to emulate Ethiopia’s bold visionary initiative. This is the pathway for poverty and hunger to be finally eliminated on the continent.
There is no danger to downstream nations from the GERD. Ethiopia has extended the time it will take to fill the GERD’s reservoir beyond the original plan of 3 to 4 years, in order to mitigate any substantial reduction in the flow of the Nile River. Annual fillings will continue until achieving completion. Ethiopia is making every effort to maintain the flow of the Blue Nile while this huge reservoir is being filled yearly during the June and July months of the rainy season. After 3 fillings (2020-2022), the reservoir now holds 22 billion cubic meters of water. Sudanese officials report no noticeable decrease in the water levels of the Nile traveling through their nation.
The author being interviewed by Ethiopian News Agency
The GERD will regulate the flow of the Nile, preventing both deadly flooding in Sudan, and the dwindling of the Nile during drier seasons. The GERD will have three spillways with a discharge capacity of 19,000 cubic meters per second to prevent flooding of the Nile. At the higher altitude of the GERD’s reservoir, evaporation, which can account for 10% of the Nile’s total volume of 84 billion cubic meters, will be reduced. Due to the size and depth of the GERD’s reservoir, there will also be a reduction in the transfer of sediments from the Blue Nile.
The drainage area of the Nile Basin includes 11 African nations whose total population is over 400 million and growing, with Egypt and Ethiopia accounting for over half of the people. A long term development plan that provides for the well-being of the people residing in the nations of the Nile Basin, should be established. However, we must be cognizant that the waters of the Nile River are not sufficient to provide for the expanding population of the region. Other alternatives must be sought.
For future generations of the Nile Basin nations to prosper, we should create the equivalent of a second Nile River through nuclear powered desalination. Nuclear power plants can be built along the Mediterranean and Red Sea coasts. This would deliver millions of tons of fresh water and provide thousands of megawatts of electricity to the Nile Basin nations. Application of nuclear energy, would also crucially upgrade the infrastructure platform of a large section of the African continent by introducing advanced nuclear technologies. Many pessimists will complain that this is impractical and will never happen. In response to these naysayers, I say: let us aspire to the same audacious optimism of Ethiopia when they conceived of creating the GERD where only mountains and the Blue Nile existed.
*Wikipedia
Schematic diagram of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
Watch my hour long presentation from October 3. I discussed that the future of our planet in this century will be dependent on the African continent with its projected population of 2.4 billion and 1 billion youth by the year 2050. Either we set in motion NOW policies to develop African nations and realize the potential of 1 billion young creative minds, or we fail to do so, which will lead to more misery, and instability. The whole world will suffer from insecurity on the the African continent.
Past African giants like Cheikh Anta Diop and President Kwame Nkrumah understood what was required to develop the nations of Africa: infrastructure, energy, industry, and science. Africa suffers from an deliberate policy of imposed economic under-development, which must be overcome, not only for the sake of Africa, but for the very future of our planet.
The United States has adopted an anti-development, geo-political ideology that opposes development in Africa. For example, why hasn’t the Biden administration praised Ethiopia for the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that will generate 6,200 megawatts of electricity for the Horn of Africa? I am sure that Presidents Franklin Roosevelt and John Kennedy would have supported Ethiopia’s drive for development, if they were alive today.
All this and more, including quotes from Diop and Nkrumah, is presented by myself in this video, which I believe will stimulate further discussion on the future of Africa.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
Topic: Book Launch and Panel Discussion-How this Happened: Demystifying the Nile-History and Events Leading to the Realization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam 
