Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous nation, is experiencing a period of significant economic growth, fueled in part by its burgeoning energy sector.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), nearing completion, promises to further propel this trajectory, impacting both domestic development and regional integration.
Renowned political and economic analyst for Africa, Lawrence Freeman, offered insights into the complex interplay of demographics, energy production, and the pursuit of sea access in shaping Ethiopia’s future.
“The most important thing is that this dam can fuel economic development,” stated Freeman, emphasizing the potential for the GERD to transform Ethiopia’s industrial landscape.
He stressed the importance of rapidly expanding manufacturing capacity to produce finished goods and elevate the standard of living for Ethiopians.
“This is far more important,” he asserted, highlighting the need to translate energy potential into tangible economic benefits for the population.
Beyond its domestic impact, the GERD is also playing a pivotal role in regional integration.
Ethiopia has already begun supplying electricity to neighboring countries like Kenya and Djibouti, fostering economic cooperation and interdependence.
“The process of regional integration in the Horn of Africa is already underway,” observed Freeman, adding that such collaboration is “essential, and it’s the best way to feed those who are…[in need].”
He further emphasized the importance of regional cooperation as a countermeasure against destabilizing influences.
“We have many people of Africa, and I consider these people very dangerous fools, and the best way to counteract them is to get regional integration,” Freeman declared.
A critical aspect of Ethiopia’s economic ambitions is securing reliable access to a sea outlet.
Historically, access through Eritrea has been hampered by political tensions and conflict, leaving Ethiopia landlocked and reliant on neighbouring ports.
“It’s clear from an economic standpoint that for the Ethiopian economy to continue to expand, they should have direct access to the Red Sea,” Freeman confirmed. However, he acknowledged the complexities involved in achieving this goal, given the sovereignty of neighboring countries controlling access routes.
He suggested that successful negotiations and mutually beneficial economic arrangements will be key to unlocking Ethiopia’s sea access potential.
“The question is, how you arrange with those nations that are in the interest of Ethiopia and is in the interest of those nations,” Freeman concluded.
This pursuit of sea access reflects a long-standing aspiration for Ethiopia, offering the promise of streamlined trade and enhanced economic connectivity. Navigating the geopolitical landscape and forging agreements with neighboring countries will be crucial to realizing this ambition and further solidifying Ethiopia’s position as a driving force in the Horn of Africa’s economic development.
While the path to direct access to the sea presents challenges, Ethiopia’s continued economic growth and regional leadership suggest a future of increasing prosperity and influence within the African continent. The strategic development of the GERD and the pursuit of port access represent key components of Ethiopia’s long-term economic strategy, according to him.
Furthering the matter, Freeman accentuated that successfully navigating these complex issues will be essential for unlocking the nation’s full economic potential and fostering sustained growth and prosperity for its people.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
Read my entire article below published in the April edition of Horn Review. I discuss the urgent need to move forward with economic growth policies that are in the shared common interest of all nations of the Horn of Africa
With War Off the Table, Economic Growth for Horn of Africa is Priority #1
For more than a year, there has been constant talk of war in the Horn of Africa, involving Ethiopia. I have spoken out loudly and consistently against war mongers and scenario predictions of military conflict. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s presentation before his parliament on Thursday, March 19, where he declared: Ethiopia does not have any intention of engaging in conflict with Eritrea for the purpose of gaining access to the [Red] sea, should terminateall prattle of war. Unless there are political powers and bad actors outside and/or inside the Horn of Africa, who would actually desire such a horrific conflict.
Scenario for Somalia
For the entirety of 2024, there was continuous chatter on X and hundreds of articles predicting a potential military conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia. With the foolish October 2024 security pact between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia, this conflict could have been cataclysmic for Africa. Of course, it never materialized.
The concern was supposedly due to the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland to allow Ethiopia access to the port of Berbera in return for recognition of an independent Somaliland. The port city of Berbera that lies on the Gulf of Aden, which flows into the Red Sea, would have given Ethiopia access to one of the most strategic shipping-trade routes in the world.
However, we should take note that the actual written content of this MoU was never publicly revealed, leaving the public and the war mongers ignorant of its full substance. Also, there is a legitimate discussion of recognition of Somaliland, which has functioned as a separate political entity of Somalia for over 30 years. It is beyond the scope of this article to elucidate the history of Somalia and Somaliland. There has been widespread discussion among many African nations on the validity of recognition of Somaliland, including nations outside of Africa, such as the Unites States.
It should be emphasized that despite all the threatening remarks by Somalian officials, to date, there has been no official recognition by Ethiopia of Somaliland. In fact, the opposite occurred. Ethiopia and Somalia have officially announced their intent for increased cooperation. Both leaders, Sheikh Mohamud, President of Somalia and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia, signed an official communique issued on February 27, 2025, which stated in part:
The two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening cooperation for mutual benefit. Recognizing the deep historical ties between their peoples and the shared border that connects them, they emphasized the importance of building trust through enhanced diplomatic, economic, and social cooperation.
Ethiopia and Somalia are independent nations with a common destiny and a shared vision for regional stability and prosperity. In this spirit, both leaders expressed their commitment to implementing strategic infrastructure projects to ensure sustainable development, economic integration and strengthen people-to-people ties.
Leaders of Ethiopia and Somalia Reaffirm Their Commitments to Strengthen Cooperation. Mogadishu, Somalia
Will Tigray Lead to War With Eritrea
Following a two year bloody war (11/2020-11/2022) by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a peace settlement was reached in Pretoria, South Africa. This year there are reports of the potential for a new war in Tigray between two warring TPLF factions. If accounts are accurate this intra-TPLF conflict could possibly result in the defense forces of Eritrea and Ethiopia fighting each other. Another war in the Horn of Africa would be catastrophic for Africans living in this region and must be prevented at all costs.
The Tigray Interim Administration headed by former deputy of the TPLF, Getachew Reda, is supported by the Ethiopian government. The dissident TPLF faction is led by Debretsion Gebramichael and allegedly backed by Eritrea, although the government of Eritrea denies this emphatically. Read: Rising Tensions in Tigray Risk Regional Conflict
If these two national armies and two opposing TPLF militias engage in combat, almost two and a half years after the last war in Ethiopia, it would be devastating not just for Ethiopians but for the entire region. Yet, dozens, if not hundreds of articles have flooded the media predicting this very scenario.
Peace vs War
The cessation of fighting and the ending of war does not equal peace. True peace and stability emanate from a higher domain of statecraft. Below are the two guiding principles for creating a durable peace.
In Europe during the first half of the 17th century, eight million people died in the Thirty Years War, which ended with the famous 1648 Treaty of Westphalia.
Article 1 of the treaty stipulated: …That this Peace and Amity be observ’d and cultivated with such a Sincerity and Zeal, that each Party shall endeavour to procure the Benefit, Honour and Advantage of the other;
Article 2 stipulated: That there shall be on the one side and the other a perpetual Oblivion, Amnesty, or Pardon of all that has been committed since the beginning of these Troubles…
Nations of the Horn of Africa must move forward from the crimes and wars of the past, and design policies that are in their self-interest and in the interest of the other.
Pope Paul VI in 1967, wrote in his famous encyclical Populorum Progressio-“The Development of People”-that the new name for peace is development. The concept of economic development has disappeared from the thinking of all U.S. leaders. For the last six decades, since the death of President John Kennedy, no American official has promoted a policy for real physical economic growth in Africa. Contrary to what most NGOs and so called democracy advocacy groups peddle for Africa, economic development is an essential human right.
Therefore, any true statesperson should be able to understand, that the way to bring durable peace and stability for the region of the Horn, is to design an economic program that benefits the common interests of all the peoples of the region: the elimination of poverty and hunger.
At the age of seventy-four, I am amazed that I am the only American specializing in African Affairs, who understands these two principles. I must also admit that I have encountered few Africans who share my outlook. Yet, it is transparently obvious, that by creating a common shared interest among nations for a more prosperous future, can we as wise men and women, journey on the only true path to peace.
2018 A Lost Moment
Prime Minister Abiy shocked the world, and Africa especially, when he ended two decades of a “state of war” between Eritrea and Ethiopia. He ceremoniously arrived in Eritrea’s capital, Asmara, on Sunday July 8, 2018, greeted by Eritrean President, Isaias Afwerki. For this, Abiy Ahmed was given the Nobel Pease Prize in 2019. President Isaias arrived in Addis Ababa one week later on July 14, for his first visit to Ethiopia in over 20 years. In twenty-five months, the war in Ethiopia erupted, with Eritrea’s military joining with Ethiopia’s National Defense Force to defeat the rebel TPLF. Since then, relations between the two nations dramatically changed.
On July 9, 2018, the two heads of state signed the Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship between Eritrea and Ethiopia, in Asmara. Their joint agreement read in part:
Conscious that the peoples of Ethiopia and Eritrea share close bonds of geography, history, culture, language, and religion, as well as fundamental common interests;
2. The two governments will endeavor to forge intimate political, economic, social, cultural and security cooperation that serves and advances the vital interests of their peoples;
3. Transport, trade, and communications links between the two countries will resume; diplomatic ties and activities will restart;
5. Both countries will jointly endeavor to ensure regional peace, development, and cooperation…
What was needed after the signing of the 2018 agreement was: immediate implementation. A Grand Design for the development of the Horn of Africa anchored by Ethiopia and Eritrea should have been prepared and discussed. It should have included sharing of increased energy production, port access for Ethiopia to the Red Sea, expanded agricultural production and irrigation, and expansion of new roads and rail transportation systems connecting the two nations and extending to Djibouti, Somalia, and Somaliland.
The ability to act (or not) resolutely with pith and urgency can be decisive in determining the future. We must recognize that the failure to put “shovels in the ground,” after the signing of the 2018 agreement, before the start of the war in Tigray, was a mistake that cannot be repeated. Establishing shared-common economic benefits from collaboration between Eritrea and Ethiopia is pivotal for peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.
By Lawrence Freeman, Researcher on Africa Development Policy
Below is the complete April edition of Horn Review
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
Eritrea’s strategic location in the Horn of Africa (courtesy of dehai.org)
January 12, 2025
The following article, Eritrea Is the North Korea of Africa: America Must Act, is a naked call for regime-change against the nation of Eritrea. The author advocates for the incoming administration of President Trump, to support so called democracy movements to overthrow the government of President Isaias Afwerki. If the Trump administration were to follow this perilously foolish advice, it could result in igniting a catastrophic destabilization of the Horn of Africa that would affect the entire continent. Potentially hundreds of thousands of Africans could die from military combat, starvation, and disease, with even more Africans becoming refugees. This is a dangerous trap being set for President Trump, which he must reject. If he does not, the people of the most populous continent will hate him, and U.S.-African relations will be severely damaged for decades.
With this essay, Michael Rubin is exposing himself as a reckless fool, and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), as a treacherous ally of the incoming administration, threatening the stability of East Africa. Both Rubin and AEI reveal themselves as tools of the West’s rules-based order.
Reject Madness
Look at a map! Look at the nations contiguous to Eritrea and its neighbors in the East African region. Hundreds of millions of Africans could be affected by such an irresponsible action as regime-change.
Sudan-48 million people, is experiencing a horrible internal war, threatening to destroy the nation of Sudan, sending millions of Sudanese fleeing into neighboring nations. Ethiopia-125 million people, after surviving a two year war that killed hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians (2020-2022) is suffering internal strife as the government continues to battle ethnic-nationalists over the last two years. South Sudan-11 million people, has been virtually a failed state since its independence in 2011. Somalia-18 million people, the government is struggling to achieve stability, battling al Shabaab for nearly two decades. Kenya with 55 million people, Uganda with a population of 46 million, and Djibouti with one million, would not be immune from an externally motivated removal of President Afwerki. It is sheer madness for Rubin and AEI to encourage regime-change in such a turbulent region. Either Rubin and AEI have no understanding of the dynamics of this region, and/or they are completely oblivious regarding the ill-fated consequences their proposal for U.S. sponsored regime change.
Eritrea’s coastline that borders the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, is a strategic trade route, which the rules-based order wants under the control of a more pliable leader than President Afwerki, who is deemed too independent.
President of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki (courtesy of shabait.com)
The article is filled with assertions and only one sighted source, Eritrea’s ambassador to South Sudan. Comparisons are made to Zimbabwe, which was also a target of failed attempts at regime-change; North Korea, one of the nations listed in the “axis of evil”; and Saddam Hussein, whose nation was invaded by the West, which led to the creation ISIS. Of course, Russia and China are not left out of Rubin’s diatribe. Although Eritrea has been subject to various sanctions over the decades, Rubin and AEI advocate additional sanctions, empowering and funding opposition groups for the removal of Eritrea’s President.
Rubin encourages pressuring allies of Eritrea, and invites the involvement of the National Endowment of Democracy, notorious for instigating regime-change across the globe, and judged by many to be an asset of the CIA. Rubin writes:
The State Department should make clear to the United Arab Emirates that it should cease its partnership with Africa’s most destabilizing state, one which is increasingly a partner for China. It might also convene, perhaps in conjunction with the National Endowment for Democracy, a “Future of Eritrea” project to identify and assess the areas of greatest need upon Isaias’ exit.
Human Development, Not Rules
It should be clear to any honest observer that overthrowing the government of Eritrea is not in the interests of Eritreans, nor the over three hundred million Africans living in East Africa-one third of the continent’s population. To deliberately inflict such harm and hardship on an African population that is already suffering from extreme poverty, is evil.
Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki, left, and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed talk during the inauguration of the Tibebe Ghion Specialized Hospital in Bahir Dar, northern Ethiopia, Nov. 10, 2018. (courtesy of voanews.com)
The core of the problem with Rubin and AEI, is their perverted worldview. More accurately, their demented belief structure, which is anti-human. Their diseased ideology views the world as composed of zero-sum relationships in a static universe. Only winners and losers, or victors, and victims exist according to this worldview. Or, as the saying goes, “you are either with us or against us.” Neither human beings, nor the physical universe, are organized in this fixed structure. Rather, it is change, transformation, development, negative entropy, and human creativity, which actually governs the human race and our universe. The ideological obsession of the rules-based order mind-set, which steers the actions of both U.S. political parties, and the self-destructed Biden administration, is the real danger to the wellbeing of the people of our planet. Not Afwerki, Mugabe, Hussein, China, Russia, and North Korea.
If we know, as we readily should: human beings are the only species endowed with the power of creative mentation, and nations are composed exclusively of humans. Thus, it is elementary that all foreign policy should be governed by the principle of development for the human race, not the so called rule of order dictated by Western institutions. U.S. policy has been driven by the insistence of imposing its so called rules and structures of democracy on the Global South. Ignoring that the most important principle is the promotion of life, which necessitates economic growth. When other nations, such as China, form a bond with African nations grounded in economic development, they are attacked by the rules based order and labeled a dangerous enemy. Chinese President, Xi Jinping, has been vilified, for among other strategies, his 2013 initiation of the Belt and Road Initiative and continuation of the successful, Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.
In the last six decades, only U.S. President John Kennedy has shown a genuine concern for collaborating with African leaders to promote economic development.
Rather than initiating programs and visions to foster economic growth in the Horn of Africa, as I have for the last decade, U.S. governments had fueled the flames of conflict. Most egregiously: 1) the Biden administration’s de facto support for the Tigrayan army’s attempt to militarily remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from his elected leadership of Ethiopia; 2) Biden’s refusal to support the most important project for economic growth in East Africa, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Victims of regime-change. Libya President, Umar al Qaddafi and Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein. (courtesy googlenews.com)
Not to be out done by Biden, the adherents to the rules-based order are proposing that the new Trump administration, should ignite the Horn of Africa, with U.S. support for Eritrea regime-change. How will that help Africans living in that region? It will not! Did the U.S. supported regime-change and assassination of President Gaddafi help the people of Libya and North Africa? Did the overthrow and murder of Saddam Hussein help the Iraqi people and the Middle East?
President-elect Trump has said that he rejects unnecessary foreign interventions by the U.S. If so, he should dismiss this murderously insane scheme, and work with me to bring peace and prosperity to the region through economic integration of the Horn of Africa.
As is the case with other African nations, I do not support all of Eritrea’s policies. However, thoughtful people of good will, should be able to understand the extreme harm that regime-change against the current Eritrean government would cause on the African continent. We should act, free from prejudice and the colonial past, to recognize the evil of the rules-based order, and unequivocally defend Eritrea from their assault on Africa..
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, and also publishing on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World
— Saba Shiferaw 🇪🇹(Abiy Ahmed Ali will lead ) (@Sabi92409431) January 6, 2025
Addis Ababa January 3, 2025, interview by Ethiopian News Agencywith Lawrence Freeman
Ethiopia can spearhead regional economic integration in East Africa by leveraging its growing economy and focusing on poverty reduction, the American political and economic analyst Laurence Freeman told ENA.
With about 120 million people, Ethiopia has the potential to use its economic growth to spread integration to the rest of the region and raise the standard of living in neighboring countries, he added.
In this regard, the progress Ethiopia and Somalia made recently should be elevated to a higher level of regional economic integration to improve the lives of the people in these countries and the region, Freeman stated.
Following the Ankara agreement, the two East African nations have been improving their partnership through discussion between high level officials of the countries and exchange of visits.
According to the analyst, the developments in Ethio-Somalia relations, including high-level meetings and diplomatic exchanges, have significantly reduced the risk of conflict, which some external actors had been actively trying to instigate.
“The progress that has been made over the last few months is very important. I think it has to be developed even further. For most of 2024, there were many political actors and countries involved in trying to instigate a military conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia.”
Fortunately, the leaders of the two countries agreed to resolve the misunderstanding peacefully and the Ankara agreement was realized.
“So I’m hopeful that all these latest developments will put to rest the idea that the two neighboring nations should go to war. I think for the moment, the forces of peace have the upper hand.”
The American analyst noted that Ethiopia has been providing security in Somalia for many years both as part of the African Union force and in the other way to support the fight against Al Shabab.
As “Ethiopians are very well organized army, Somalia has relied on the Ethiopian military forces against the fight of violent extremism. This process should continue and now there are efforts that are being discussed.
But prior to the recent agreements between the leaders of Somalia and Ethiopia there were people calling for the removal of Ethiopia troops from the AU force. This would have been a mistake,” he revealed.
Freeman further stressed the need to prioritize economic integration across the region, encompassing Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, and other East African nations.
“Now we have to move to a higher level, and that level means we have to achieve economic integration in the entire region. And this means that these nations should be working together to promote economic growth. The most important issue is raising the standard of living of people living in poverty in these regions.”
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, and also publishing on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World
What is needed in the Horn of Africa, is statesmen, who understand physical economy. Meddlers and people who talk of war are not thinking clearly. You have millions of poor Africans living in this region. In some areas for decades. What is needed is physical economic growth. Instead of people reacting with old grudges, we need calm thoughtful discussion on how to eliminate poverty in this impoverished poor region of Africa. We do not need an inflow of military armaments and soldiers. We need scientists, engineers, agronomists, hydrologists, and manufacturers. Instead of spending on weapons, we should extend credit for massive investments in infrastructure.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, and also publishing on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World.”
Watch Lawrence Freeman’s interview with Addis Assefa, OBN Horn of Africa, April 23, 2024
May 4, 2024
In this interview, I presented the fallacy of thinking by the so called rules-based international order, demonstrated in their G7-Foreign Ministers Statement. The G7 statement fails to articulate any policy promoting economic development for the nations of Africa. Rather, it shamefully, merely lists the concerns and the condemnations of the G7 for several African nations.
Major topics discussed included:
The involvement of forces outside the region meddling in the affairs of the Horn of Africa for geopolitical control; usurping the authority of sovereign African nations.
The absence of motivation for any nation in the Horn of Africa to initiate military engagement with neighboring nations.
The ongoing process of regional economic integration in the Horn of Africa.
The potential for increased physical economic growth in the region resulting from the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland for port access.
The lack of a policy by the G7 rules-based order to promote physical economic growth.
The use of “climate change” to prevent African nations from using their sovereign natural resources to produce electricity for the purpose of improving the standard of living for their citizens.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, and also publishing on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World.”
Ethno-nationalism is Ethiopia’s most serious security threat (map courtesy of Wikipedia)
April 16, 2024
The publication of Alex da Waal’s article, Ethiopia Back on the Brink, in Foreign Affairs, on April 8, is a clear indication that the Anglo American Establishment intends to continue the destabilization of Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. (Foreign Affairs/ Da Waal)
How Do I Know?
I come to this conclusion as one who comprehends strategic global dynamics, which elevates my thinking above those who live in the world of empiricism. It is elementary for me, who understands the world view of those indoctrinated in the “geopolitical zero-sum” ideology, to know what is intended for Ethiopia.
I know two crucial pieces of evidence.
One, Alex da Waal supported the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in their treasonous endeavor to overthrow the government of Ethiopia. It was a military attempt at regime change in a destructive war that lasted for two years. He was an active supporter in the war to destroy the Ethiopian nation. When Da Waal writes or talks about Ethiopia, his hatred and rage against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, gushes out.
Two, Foreign Affairs is a quarterly publication of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the most prominent and influential think tank in the United States that has direct impact on all branches of the United States government.The CFR was founded in 1921, as the American branch of the British Royal Institute for International Affairs, otherwise known as Chatham House, which was created two years earlier. Chatham House was created by Lord Alfred Milner, then acting as Secretary of State for the British Empire’s colonies, through a vast trust funded by the estate of race-patriot Cecil Rhodes.
One should ask him or herself: why would the most prestigious U.S. establishment magazine publish an article on Ethiopia by someone who not only hates the current government of Ethiopia, but actively supported its attempted overthrow.
Da Waal is no ordinary academic. He is an advocate for the geopolitical establishment that believes they have the authority to decide who is an acceptable leader of a nation. That is, one that is acceptable to their rules-based international order, which does not respect the legitimacy of decisions made by the citizens of sovereign African nations.
The intent of the continuous destabilization of Ethiopia in the eighteen months following the negotiated end of the war in November 2022, is to produce a weakened, fractured, or balkanized nation. One can grasp the significance of the type of evidence I am presenting, providing one has not become a victim of ethno-nationalism ideology. Given Ethiopia’s political and economic dominance, along with its sheer size, if these efforts were to succeed, the Horn of Africa would be thrust into decades of war and chaos.
Before I was shunned by the Ethiopian diaspora, I was praised for my insightful assessment that the intent of the TPLF instigated war was regime change. Unfortunately, many of my former allies, who know well of Alex da Waal’s nefarious role in Ethiopia’s destructive war, reject my analysis today. Nor do I have any direct indication that leaders in Ethiopia understand who is waging war against Ethiopia, and why. However, it would serve the best interest of Ethiopia and the continent, for people to heed and understand my analysis.
Ethno-nationalism Weaponized
The Council on Foreign Relations, dominated by their geopolitical outlook that the world is composed of victors and victims, disregards the significance of the concept of a sovereign nation state. Instead, they see countries as mere pawns to be manipulated to accomplish their goal of western hegemony. Poor Alex da Waal is simply a tool whose erroneous academic analysis is used against African nations. He serves the interests of his master, the rules-based international order.
Da Waal shows his contempt for a unified sovereign nation of Ethiopia through his constant support of ethno-nationalism, which remains today, the most serious threat to the existence of the Ethiopian nation. He fails to understand that the most important objective of a “national dialogue” is to affirm the superiority of Ethiopian citizenship over ethno-nationalism. This will also require major alterations in the flawed Ethiopian constitution, rather than perpetuating it . He praises the decades of rule by the TPLF that is responsible for dividing the nation into ethnic conclaves, which he claims was undone by Prime Minister Abiy.
Ethiopia’s failed Constitution, which promotes ethno-nationalism, is in urgent need significant change.
Da Waal writes:
Under the previous regime, Ethiopia’s various regions have been held together by a federal formula that aimed to maintain the country’s complete complicated ethnic mosaic…this federal system undergirded a quarter century of stability.
This “mosaic” that promoted ethnicity over citizenship of a nation, has made Ethiopia vulnerable to external intervention, and is the root cause of Ethiopia’s recent war and violent conflicts today.
Da Waal consciously refuses to acknowledge that the TPLF initiated the war with an armed attack on the nation’s military defense force in Mekelle, Tigray. He supports the legitimacy for a province to initiate armed conflict against the central government. (An act that President Lincoln did not tolerate). He can barely conceal his enthusiasm for the TPLF’s march to capture Addis Ababa, the nation’s capital, in 2021. He praises the existence of ethnic armies and complains that FANO was not given a seat at the peace talks in South Africa. Why should they be there? FANO, nor any ethnic militia does not represent the nation of Ethiopia and is not a substitute for the elected government.
War Mongering in the Horn of Africa
Da Waal joins the war mongering chorus working overtime to instigate armed conflict in the Horn of Africa. Displaying his ignorance or disdain for physical economic growth, he dismisses Ethiopia’s need for port access to the Red Sea and Gulf of Eden. Da Waal shows no concern for improving the living standards of millions of people residing in the Horn of Africa. Insisting that Prime Minister Abiy is only interested in the prestige of building a navy. Similarly, he exposes his lack of concern for improving the lives of Ethiopians and its neighbors by demeaning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). He complains that it is 95 percent complete, despite opposition from Egypt. What kind of an “Africanist” does not support the injection of 5,150 megawatts of power, generated by the GERD, into a continent dying from lack of electricity? Conspicuously, Da Waal never discusses the critical need for economic development of the region.
In his Foreign Affairs’ essay, Da Waal asserts without any evidence that “the standoff between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu threatens to develop into a larger conflagration. There will be no conflagration unless Da Waal and his ilk deliberately ignite one, intending to set the East African region ablaze.
Da Waal blames the crisis in the Horn of Africa on Prime Minister Abiy’s so called expansionist plans and predicts a future that would lead to the disintegration of Ethiopia. His scenario includes the Sudanese armed forces threatening the GERD, while the insurgency in Amara escalates. Da Waal has fantasies of an uprising that will threaten Prime Minister Abiy’s control of Addis Ababa, this time succeeding, unlike the TPLF’s earlier failed attempt. He then predicts that: In the coming year, Ethiopians could also face food riots, mass hunger-induced migration, and a broader social and security breakdown. That is quite a prophecy or is it his aspiration for the future of Ethiopia. If any of Da Waal’s evil imagination were to become true, hundreds of millions of Africans living in Eastern Africa and across the continent would suffer unspeakable hardship.
We should judge this ominous prediction by da Waal, to be a desired outcome, or at the very least, a threat to Ethiopia and the existing government of Prime Minister Abiy.
Da Waal’s solution is having the rules-based international order intervene, to tell yet another African nation how to behave. According to him, the United States and its partners should curb Prime Minister Abiy’s authority and maintain the structure of zones of ethno-nationalism. This would ensure that Ethiopia will be permanently fractured, instead of becoming a unified nation-state. Thus, deliberately leaving the second most populace nation in Africa, open to future destabilizations.
Hence, the significance of the publication of this article by an institution such as Foreign Affairs.
Soon I will be publishing from lawrencefreeman.substack.com
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
If Ethiopia is going to have access to a port, then there must be long term agreement, Lawrence Freeman explains why
With around 120 million people, Ethiopia is said to be the most populous land locked country in the world. Since the separation of Eritrea with a declaration of independence in 1991, Ethiopia has been using the Port of Djibouti for about 95 % of its import export trade.
But with the rapid growth of its economy its import export trade has also grown exponentially calling for the increase of the number of ports, upgrading of the capacity of the ports as well as securing its right to access sea outlet.
“If Ethiopia is going to make investments, which they have to do in infrastructure to make the port profitable and efficient, then they need to have a long term lease agreement.” Says Lawrence Freeman, an American political economic analyst for Africa (www.lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com ).
In his brief stay with The Ethiopian Herald, Freeman has reflected his insight about how vital for Ethiopia is having a sea access with a guarantee of long term agreement, the need to access multiple ports to accommodate its rapidly growing economy and respond to the needs of its large population, as well as the benefits other countries of the region can secure from the Ethiopia – Somaliland Port access deal and the role of the regional countries. Enjoy reading!
It has been two months since Ethiopia and Somaliland signed the MoU for a port access. How do you see the progress of the agreement and what has been unfolding around the issue so far?
There appears to still be concern by Somalia about this Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). which I haven’t seen the actual complete agreement. There was also a report in the news that in the meeting that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had with the president of Kenya, as a softening of the Prime Minister’s position.
However, much of the discussion is just poorly informed, and not helpful to the Horn of Africa to any of the nations in the Horn of Africa: Somalia, Somaliland, Djibouti, Kenya, Eritrea, Ethiopia. The problem is the countries are reacting in a less than informed manner. If they understood physical economic growth, they would understand that Ethiopia needs multiple port access for its growing economy, number one. Number two, Ethiopia is the largest economy in East Africa and has great deal of potential for growth. Number three, this will benefit all the countries in the region because they will benefit from the expansion of trade and commerce. Number four, if Ethiopia is going to have access to a port, then they need to have long term agreement. It can’t be a one year two year; we’ll do it when we want. It can’t be capricious. If Ethiopia is going to make investments, which they have to do in infrastructure to make the poor profitable and efficient, then they need to have a long term lease agreement. Otherwise, they will not make the investments; nobody would. And number five, the reactions of many of the countries and leaders in the region represent a legacy of the colonial mentality of who owned what going back many, many years, or decades. And they represent what I would say ignorance in physical economics and are dominated by old grudges, rage and anger, all of which is inappropriate at this time. If you want to see Africa grow, if you want to see the region grow, if you want to see all the nations of the Horn of Africa develop and grow, then it’s ABCs. Very easy for me to see the purpose of having long term access to multiple ports. The argument for an access long term access to port is valid. And we should put aside all his other commentary and focus on what will help improve the lives of Africans living in that region.
How do you think could diplomatic approach help reach consensus among the countries that signed the MoU and others?
Well, the fact of the matter is, if the Somali government was more thoughtful, the eloquent solution would be simply. Say we consider Somaliland part of Somalia, if Somalia government is, is looking to the future, they would say okay, Somaliland is part of Somalia, and therefore we accept the agreement, because it’s an agreement between Ethiopia and land considered part of Somalia. So we will benefit, Somalia, and will benefit our neighbors. That would be the most thoughtful, eloquent solution in Somalia to say ‘we agree that this will be helpful to all our people.’ Now that that eloquent solution is not being pursued by Somalia, and Somalia, has made all kinds of threatening statements, which are really, in my view, kind of silly to think that Somalia is going to go to war with Ethiopia. It is silly, but it also dangerous. And Ethiopia has been defending Somalia with its treasure and blood with troops in Somalia, going back to the early 2006, and they’re still there. So the idea that you would be able to mobiliser a war against Ethiopia, it’s just silly, but dangerous. Then you have other countries coming in, and aligning themselves, for and against Ethiopia for and against the Somalia. This is also dangerous. They should keep their nose out of the Horn of Africa, they should study physical economics, they should listen and understand that this is beneficial to all the nations. Now I don’t know where the MOU stands two months, over two months after it was initially signed, but my advice is, we should go ahead with it. And this will help all of the nations and all of the people in the nations. We have to get away from anger, and historical rage, and historical pettiness and look to the future. What kind of economy are we going to have? What kind of economic growth are we going to have in the Horn of Africa and eastern Africa? That depends on the economy of Ethiopia.
What do you think can leaders of the region including Ethiopia, Somaliland and Somalia can do to reach a win win solution?
I think that the leaders of sovereign nations should be able to sit down and discuss calmly, without anger. Without ancient rhetoric, they should sit down and discuss how we can benefit all the people of our nation. Now, I don’t know where the memorandum of understanding is at this point, because of it’s been a long time–it’s been 10 weeks since it was signed. But I would think this pursuit is a viable alternative to Ethiopia having access to this waterway, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Indian Ocean … etc. And , there could be other ports that could be pursued. The main thing, from my standpoint as a physical economist is Ethiopia should have a modern port. And, without a long term agreement, they’re not going to make the investment in a modern board, nobody would. And Somalia should not call this annexing their land. It’s not annexing any part of Somalia. They’re making an agreement. It’s not annexation. Now, I believe, personally, that there outside forces that are manipulating the situation, because there were forces that don’t want to see a strong, independent sovereign Ethiopia. And these outside forces are trying to weaken Ethiopia, just like they did in the war with Northern Ethiopia.
What kind of role do you think Ethiopia would play in the peace and security of the red sea region if it sets up naval force?
Actually, in Ethiopia, he’s also getting, I believe, several, maybe 12 miles of area, of land along the water way. That’s good. Because the whole Red Sea area is insecure, as we’ve seen with these recent attacks. If you have another Navy, that helps you provide more security. So it’s not a bad thing is a good thing. And I believe, it is manipulated by geopolitical forces, who don’t want to see peace, who don’t want to see prosperity in the Horn of Africa. But a port in a navy military base, could help the situation in the Red Sea, I don’t see it as a negative, it could be a positive.
Many countries from diverse corners of the world show interest in the red sea region. As a result they my show concern on the new development like Ethiopia and Somaliland MoU. But is there any way they can also contribute in settling the issue smoothly?
I think you see some countries trying to help the situation. The visit of the Prime Minister [Abiy Ahmed] to Kenya probably was a positive diplomatic trip, and it may improve the situation. I think it’s reasonable for countries in that region, have discussions with Ethiopia, have discussions with Somalia, and other countries in the Horn of Africa. That’s how problems should be solved. They should be solved by African nations, Sub Saharan African nations involved in that region, who keep care about the future standard of living of their citizens. And among them, there should be discussion. I’m sure there are many private discussions going on among people in the African Union, and IGAD and other platforms for African nations. And that should be going on and they should be the ones to resolve this. There is absolutely no reason for conflict, none zero. And anybody who’s talking about that is being foolish, and also hurting the wrong people by even promoting a discussion of war. This can be resolved by leaders of nations calmly talking among themselves.
Prior to the signing of the MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland many countries from different corners of the world have come all the way to Somaliland and leased the port there. Why do you think does it cause so much uproar when Somaliland signed similar agreement with Ethiopia?
That gives you a clue as to the fact that somebody wants conflict, because as you pointed out, other countries think the UAE and the international port company have had agreements in Somaliland. So as you pointed out, this is not the first time and therefore, why now, it you get this stupid talk about war. So that’s a clue. That tells me that somebody wants conflict, that somebody doesn’t want good negotiations between Ethiopia and Somalia. Some geopolitical force, doesn’t want Ethiopia to become a dominant growing economic power in East Africa. These are clues to people like me, who understand the way the world operates. And since the beginning of the Prime Minister’s taking the position as prime minister in 2018, there have been one after another attacks on Ethiopia that are trying to prevent Ethiopia from fully developing, and other people who forces who are also using the internal situation Ethiopia, where you have this ethnic nationalism, which is an attack on the nation state, and its attack on Ethiopian citizenship, and that ethnic nationalism is also being supported by outside forces. So I have seen Ethiopia being a victim of many different operations over the last six years now, it’s quite possible that the government could handle this situation better. If I were advising them, I would tell them things to do that could help. But their pursuit of economic growth for their country is right. And it’s to the benefit of all the nations in the region. In fact, implicitly it’s a benefit for the entire continent of Africa.
What do you think would be the way forward the MoU signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland?
I think the best way to handle it is to handle it through private, nonpublic discussions with the leaders of the countries in the region. I mean, you could have a conference. And you could have a conference that discusses economic growth for all the countries of the Horn of Africa, and the importance of development, and present information on how the country would grow with another port, with advanced Infrastructure Transportation to that port. We certainly can reduce the cost of what Ethiopia is paying to Djibouti now, which is a billion and a half dollars. Not Birr, but dollars or other hard currencies. Ethiopia is using up a large a portion of his foreign exchange to maintain operations in Djibouti. And I think there’s a lot of people meddling in. And I would have the leaders of the region meet on their own and discuss from a thoughtful standpoint, from my standpoint, what are the potentials for economic growth, and reason for the necessity of Ethiopia having a port.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
WATCH Interview with OBN Horn of Africa, January 10, 2024
January 16, 2024
Let us work to make the Horn of Africa and East Africa a model of regional economic integration. This process has already begun, with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam exporting electricity to Sudan, Kenya, and Djibouti. Ethiopia having long term port access to major shipping routes through the Gulf of Eden and the Red Sea, will expand Ethiopia’s economy and has the potential to develop the regional economy of East Africa. There are three primary conceptual obstacles that people have in understanding how to develop this region, which I discuss above in the video interview with OBN, and below in the written interview with ENA.
One, the majority of people do not understand the physical scientific principles to economic development, having been miseducated by our schools and society.
Two, the legacy of colonialism has perverted the thinking process of many Africans, leading to fixed prejudices that prevent one from seeing what is possible.
Three, most people live in the past, or at best in the present. I try to live in the future, where my mind can see the fruitful potential of that which we humans can create but does not yet exist.
Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU Model for Economic Development of Africa: American Analyst
Interview with Ethiopian News Agency, January 2, 2024
Addis Ababa, January 4/2024(ENA)- The current MoU signed by Ethiopia and Somaliland could become a model for economic development of the continent, Political-economic analyst for Africa Lawrence Freeman said.
In an exclusive interview with ENA, the analyst said that the Memorandum of Understanding signed on Monday could be a “useful example for the rest of the African continent.”
Moreover, the MoU for Partnership and Cooperation inked by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Muse Bihi Abdi includes wide scopes of cooperation in social, economic, political, and military fields.
It is also intended to serve as a framework for the multisectoral partnership between the two sides, and shall pave the way to realize the aspiration of Ethiopia to secure access to the sea and diversify its access to seaports.
In this respect, Freeman believes the agreement is a breakthrough that could accelerate regional and global trade.
“If you look at it optimistically, the situation in the Horn of Africa could actually become a model for economic development and in the whole African continent. Now, this is what we’re looking for, regional integration, economic-regional linkage into international trade among nations, instead of exporting everything outside the nation. So this could be a useful example for the rest of the continent.”
However, there are political forces within the Horn of Africa and around the world who would like to continue destabilizing the region, the American analyst noted.
He particularly pointed out that there are manipulators and political forces screaming war constantly.
When the prime minister talked about the port in October 2023, dozens of articles were published predicting war. But, there was no indication of war, he stated.
According to Freeman, the historic MoU was signed in a peaceful manner and has the potential to bring other countries to cooperate with Ethiopia in this geopolitically strategic part of the world.
He advised specifically Somalis to refrain from inflammatory statements and resolve the issue calmly.
Given the conflict between Somalia and Somaliland for many years, Somaliland has been conducting its affairs differently in the spheres of currency, economy, governance and others.
The MoU “can offer economic growth to actually both nations because if Somaliland is growing, Somalia is growing too…. Statements like ‘we’re not going to give one inch of our territory’ is the kind of talking that is not helpful. We’re going to have to move forward. We can’t stay the way we are. We need to have a resolution between those two between Somalia and Somaliland.”
Beyond that the problems in the Horn of Africa are very complicated and emanate from a whole bunch of leftover problems from the days of colonialism, he noted.
There is a lot of antagonism and complications that come from colonial history.
“As for the amount of anger and hatred that I see from people against one country versus another, we’re not going to give up. We’re not going to let them know that you’re stuck in the mind of the old colonists picture. My message to people is to move forward,” the analyst underscored.
For Freeman those people who are screaming about war are either fools or they’re being manipulated by other forces in the wrong way.
In general, the American analyst stated that the MoU is very important for Ethiopia to realize the advancement of import-export trade and allow the nation to have greater access to the rest of the world.
Ethiopia also being the largest economy and population, the area can make perfect sense to build a naval capacity it once had when it accessed the Red Sea, he added.
More importantly, Ethiopia is also now going to play a major role as the country has become a new member of the BRICS, the leading institution of the global South, with a new paradigm for development of emerging nations.
That gives Ethiopia a great deal of an opportunity to begin to deal with all the political-economic frailties and create a new level of regional cooperation in the region.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
In my interview above with OBN (11/6/2023), I discuss the importance of understanding the concept of physical economy to competently analyze the future of the Horn of Africa. Sadly, the vast majority of Africans, like Americans, do not chose to look into the future. It is only by knowing what physical economic inputs are necessary to sustain an expanding population 20-40 years into the future that one can determine the best policies of their nation in the present. Claims of “my nation first” or “my ethnicity first,” express a short sighted mentality that is detrimental to the interests of the nations of the region. Full economic integration of the Horn of Africa, driven by investments in infrastructure, is the most reliable path to achieving peace, stability, and economic growth, and avoiding conflict.
NO WAR in the Horn of Africa! Peace, cooperation, & economic development is interest of all nations. Don’t be manipulated into war by the geopolitical motivated rules-based international (dis) order. See articles on this subject on my website: https://t.co/w9DATr3sldpic.twitter.com/zXaT7KyfSj
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com
