October 1, 2025–celebrating the 65th anniversary of Nigeria’s liberation from British colonialism

Below are edited remarks by Lawrence Freeman, addressing the second day of “2nd International Railway Conference and Expo 2025.” More posts will be published on this website highlighting presentations on railway development in Nigeria, by Ministers of Transportation, Petroleum Resources, the Vice President of Nigeria, and others.

Welcome ladies and gentlemen. All protocols observed.

I want to thank the Ministry of Transportation for this opportunity to speak to you today on this critical topic.

I.  Let me introduce myself

I am not new to Nigeria. I first arrived in Africa at the Lagos airport in June 1994, at the invitation of a friend of mine from Kaduna. Over the last 31 years I have been here many times, maybe  15 or 16 visits. I spoke at the Second Economic Summit in Abuja in 1995. I met Professor Sam Aluko, a great economist. I also became acquainted with then General Buhari, who was head of the Petroleum Trust Fund under General Abacha. For several decades I advocated a program to transform Nigeria and a substantial portion of Africa with a great water infrastructure project called, Transaqua. It would transport water via a 2,400 kilometer canal from the Congo River to recharge Lake Chad. In the course of this I met the Executive Director of the Lake Chad Basin Commission, Engineer Sanusi Abdullahi, and we collaborated with the former minister of water and resources, Suleiman Adamu. I discussed this proposal  with President Buhari several times, which he supported. We organized a conference in Abuja in 2018, a three day International Conference to Save lake Chad, and plans were made to implement this recharging of the shrinking lake. Unfortunately, it never happened, but as you can see, I have a long personal history with Nigeria.

This conference on railway development for Nigeria is of extreme importance. Railways and electricity are the two essential categories of hard infrastructure necessary for economic growth. Investment in railways for Nigeria is imperative. Africa needs an additional 100,000 kilometers of rail lines connecting all the major cities, ports, and manufacturing centers across the continent. The nations of Africa also require over 1,000 gigawatts of additional electricity to power their industrial economies. These two categories of infrastructure are not optional. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will not reach its full potential without massive investments in these two essential categories of hard infrastructure.

III.  Infrastructure and Physical Economy

What do I mean by physical economy? Let us look at the economy independent of monetary values. Let us look at the physical economy as a living, willfully expanding dynamic process, which serves to increase the standard of living of the population. In physical economy we are measuring physical inputs and outputs of physical goods, per capita and per square kilometer. How do we make sure that the output in physical wealth is greater than the input? By increasing the productive powers of our workforce. We measure the effects of the “increasing powers of labor” of our economy by the improvement of the material quality of life of our citizens. This will also result in extending the longevity of life, and the ability to expand the number of people sustained by that society while simultaneously improving their standard of living.

Infrastructure is an intervention into the environment. It is an intervention to alter-improve nature for the benefit of humankind. We do not measure the success of infrastructure merely on the basis of immediate financial return of that particular investment. But more importantly we measure the effects of infrastructure on the profitability of the entire economy.

Infrastructure properly understood is a precondition for the successful continuous economic growth from the present into the future. Infrastructure transmits value through the technological inherent design of the infrastructure itself. Whole economies rest on an integrated infrastructure platform. That is: water, rail, roads, energy, etc., make up a platform which is the foundation of an economy. Therefore, the quality and density of infrastructure determine the productivity of the economy. Every worker and every farmer become more productive by the density of infrastructure in the surrounding economy. .

For example. The completion of the proposed multiple East-West and North-South railroads connecting Africa, which was earlier discussed by Rowland Ataguba, would have a transformative effect on the entire continent; all the nations in Africa would benefit. Another example to look at is the recently inaugurated Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which I recently visited in May of this year, and is now complete. It has the capacity to generate 5,150 megawatts of power and actually prevent flooding and severe drought on the Nile. It benefits not just the Horn of Africa, but the nations of the Nile Basin, and East Africa as well.

The proposal of building 4,000 kilometers of High Speed Rail in Nigeria, which was discussed yesterday at this conference, would also be transformative by introducing an advanced technology of transportation into the economy. These types of physical infrastructure interventions on the African continent typify what is required.

IV. Density of Rail

In physical economy we examine rail density: the total kilometers (kms) of rail lines divided by the land area involved, measured in square kilometers (km2). For historical reasons I compare Nigeria with the United Kingdom, which is behind other European nations in infrastructure.

Nigeria has 3,798 kms of rail lines across a land area of 932,768 km2, yielding a real density of only 4.1 kms of rail per 1,000 km2 of land. The United Kingdom has 16,430 kms of rail lines across a land area 244,376 km2, yielding a rail density of 67 kms of rail per 1,000 km2 of land. As you can see, rail density per area in the United Kingdom is 15 times greater than Nigeria. The African Union estimates that rail density in Africa is only 2.5 kms per 1,000 km2. While globally, the average is 23 kms per 1,000 km2, rail density in some nations of Europe have five times that average.

Now let us examine another key measurement in physical economy; rail density per capita. That is the length of rail lines divided by the number of people inhabiting that land area.

Here we divide the same 3,789 kms of rail lines by the Nigerian population of approximately 237 million people. The per capita rail density in Nigeria  is .016 kms rail lines per person. When we look at the United Kingdom with 16,430 kms of rail lines divided by their population of 66.3 million people, their per capita rail density is .24 kms per person. Rail density per capita in the United Kingdom is 15 times greater than Nigeria.

V.  Density of Electricity

We will now examine another essential area of infrastructure from the standpoint of physical economy.

Per capita consumption of electricity is measured in kilowatt hours, with a kilowatt equal to 1,000 watts. The average Nigerian has 142 kWh-142,000 watts of electricity available during the entire year, which is less than 20 watts of electricity per hour, per person. The United Kingdom generates 4,135 kWh per capita, which is 472 watts per person. The discrepancy with the United States is even greater, with the United States generating 12,747 kWh per capita, which yields 1,455 watts per person every hour of the year.

Examining density of electricity per area, Nigeria generates .015 megawatts (million watts) per 1,000 km2 of land area, compared to .67 megawatts per 1,000 km2 of area for the United Kingdom–44 times greater.

VI.  Reality and Optimism

It is estimated that worldwide, 692 million people live in extreme poverty–less than $2.15 per day. In sub-Saharan Africa it is estimated that 464 million people live in extreme poverty. It is reported that Nigeria has 129 million people living in extreme poverty, which is 19% of the world total.

However, the good news is that humankind has already proven that it  knows how to eliminate extreme poverty. China has lifted over 700 million people out of poverty. How did they do this? By having a focused policy of building infrastructure and expanding the manufacturing sector. This is a great accomplishment coming from an agrarian based economy that was severely underdeveloped two generations ago. Therefore, I can say with confidence that we can eliminate poverty in Africa, if we apply today, known methods of physical economics.

There is a scientific basis for optimism in Nigeria and Africa. This is based on my understanding of this secret of true economic wealth. All economic value springs from the mind of human beings. It is not the wealth under the ground. It is not physical labor. Scientific discoveries of the physical processes of the universe lead to advancements in technology which is the basis for scientifically driven economic progress. The source of all discoveries is the human creative mind. Therefore, it is not a curse to have a large expansion of population in the African continent, projected to be 2.5 billion by 2050, with Nigeria over 400 million. It can potentially be a blessing, provided we make the right economic policy decisions today.

All these new potentially creative minds can make discoveries, which  lead to an advancement of civilization. To make that possible we have to provide a rising material standard of living so that these youth have the quality of life, and the leisure time to concentrate on developing their uniquely human creative spirit. This is the secret to all real economic wealth and the secret to understanding physical economy.

With the rise of the global South and the expansion of the BRICS that  has 10 members, including South Africa, Egypt, and Ethiopia, and 10 partners including Nigeria, Uganda, and Algeria, there is a new dynamic for Africa and the world. The majority of the world living in the Global South has an opportunity to create a new paradigm, one that is not based on exploitation, dominance, or mere monetary values, but one committed to the advancement of the material conditions of life for all human beings on this planet. This is the future I see, which all of us can work together to create.

Thank you very much for listening to me today. I hope I provided some useful ideas that will advance infrastructure led growth and a prosperous Nigeria.

Read my recent post: Grand Renaissance Dam: A great Achievement for Ethiopia, Africa, and the Global South

Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X @lkfreemansafrica