Nile

Energy, Agriculture and Manufacturing: Essential for Ethiopia’s Economic Future

Lawrence , , , , , , , , ,

Lawrence Freeman visiting Friendship Park in Addis Ababa on his first day in Ethiopia.

HORN REVIEW: IDEAS CONNECTIONS SYNERGY SIXTEENTH EDITION: Grand Narratives as Foundational Constructs of Ethiopia’s Foreign Policy

Lawrence Freeman is a distinguished researcher and analyst with over 30 years of experience specializing in the social, political, and economic dynamics of the African continent. Freeman has dedicated significant attention to Ethiopia, producing a wealth of insightful commentaries on the country’s evolving challenges and opportunities. Interview by Horn Review, was conducted during Mr. Freeman’s visit to Ethiopia (May 12-25, 2025)

“GERD, Agricultural Reforms and the Future of Regional Integration in the Horn of Africa”

Horn Review: Professor Freeman, welcome to our podcast. Great to have you here. Lawrence Freeman: Thank you very much.

Horn Review: From your perspective, how would you assess the trajectory of Ethiopia’s current agricultural reform agenda? Are the recent state-led initiatives showing signs of structural change? Lawrence Freeman: Yes, I would say that the progress being made by Ethiopia in agriculture is very significant. The government thinks they have already reached self-sufficiency on wheat in 2022/23, and they’re projecting they may be able to produce 30 million tons of wheat in 2025. Several things have taken place that have made it effective. One is they’re increasing the use of irrigation, which is necessary for modern farming. This has increased the number of hectares where they can grow crops. Second, Ethiopian farming was based on subsistence farming of one to two hectares, but now the concept is cluster farming, where groups of farmers come together, prepare the land, plant, plow, and use advanced machinery collectively. This collective strength has led to a huge increase in productivity and income per hectare, according to the agricultural department. These are some of the things Ethiopia is doing, and pretty much Ethiopia should no longer be importing any food from this point on. This is very important because Africa, for no good reason, was importing tens of billions of dollars of food across the continent, even though the land was perfectly capable and was self-sufficient in the 60s and 70s. Due to neoliberal economic policies, development stopped. Ethiopia is playing a very good role in promoting this kind of development. This has been one of the driving points of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. They have reduced levies on buying tractors and equipment and reduced taxes. The whole orientation of promoting agriculture is substantial and hopefully will continue.

Horn Review: How do you view the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as a strategic asset for agricultural transformation in Ethiopia? Do you see it meaningfully supporting irrigation and mechanization in the short or long term?

The magnifiant Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, almost completed–May 2025

Lawrence Freeman: Since May 2025, almost everything has been completed; all 13 turbines and waterways have been constructed that bring water down to the turbines. They are now in the testing phase, with about six turbines operating and testing the remaining seven. The target for completion and inauguration is likely to be in September or earlier.

This is a huge plus for Ethiopia. The dam holds 74 billion cubic meters of water, which will essentially push water out to irrigate the entire area, as Ethiopia has numerous river systems. Although the water flow from the dam is not to be used for agriculture, but for hydroelectric power, the increase in water presence and moisture in the area will affect agriculture. Of course, there will be more electricity. The dam’s capability right now is about 2,600 megawatts, but it was reaching about 1,800 megawatts when I visited the GERD. Once you begin to utilize more of the 5,150 megawatts available, you start electrifying rural areas. When poor farmers in rural districts begin to have electricity, that changes everything. As you get more electricity to rural areas, you transform productivity, farming, and make every farmer and worker more productive.

Horn Review: Do you think the West recognizes the significance of Ethiopia building the largest hydroelectric dam on the continent? Lawrence Freeman: No, I don’t think there has been enough recognition by the West, certainly not by the United States or Europe. Ethiopia is building the largest hydroelectric dam on the continent and the 17th largest in the world. This is a real plus, which unfortunately the West ignores or doesn’t want to recognize at this point. Horn Review: What would you say is the effect of increasing energy production on Ethiopia’s food security and economy?

Lawrence Freeman: Electricity is the most important single ingredient to a successful economy. Infrastructure is essential. You need infrastructure that includes electricity, rail transportation, road transportation, and water management. All this creates the platform on which the entire physical economy rests. The denser and more advanced your infrastructure platform is, the more it raises productivity at all levels of the economy. For example, across Africa, 30 to 40% of food rots before it reaches the market; in Ethiopia, it’s about 30%. To correct that, you need infrastructure that gets food to market quickly, such as modern fast rail transportation and refrigerated cars to keep food from spoiling. This all requires electricity and roads. There’s no way to become an industrialized economy and lift all people out of poverty without infrastructure, and electricity is the key to infrastructure. With the completion of the dam and the addition of 5,150 megawatts, Ethiopia will become the second-largest electricity producer in sub-Saharan Africa, only behind South Africa, which has a nuclear power plant. That is significant, but not enough for 130 million people. Every part of society must be connected to electricity to achieve real independent sovereignty of development and reach its potential.

Lawrence Freeman looking at the GERD reservoir that holds 74 billion cubic meters of water

Horn Review: How might the electricity generated by the dam reshape rural economies and agribusiness within Ethiopia and the wider Horn of Africa region?

Lawrence Freeman: Ethiopia has already begun regional economic integration because electricity is now being exported to Djibouti, North Sudan, and Kenya. Before the end of the year, there will be transmission to Tanzania. Electricity from the dam is transported to Ethiopia’s grid and then through power lines to neighboring countries. Djibouti and Kenya want to increase imports of electicity. Ethiopia is already practicing regional integration with the African Free Trade Area. Ethiopia’s agricultural model, successful over five years, is something other countries should emulate. Development is the key to peace, security, raising living standards, and creativity. I have been coming here for 11 years and have seen impressive progress.

Horn Review: How do you assess the regional implications of Ethiopia’s agricultural and energy policies for neighboring countries such as Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, and Djibouti, especially in the context of transboundary water and food systems?

Lawrence Freeman: Water is a big issue in Africa. People think there’s always a danger of water wars, but there is a lot of water in Africa; the problem is it’s not always in the right place. We have to build appropriate canals and waterways to take water from where it is to where it’s needed. I saw this on some farms, where people are building waterways to bring water to crop areas. The Nile is the longest river in the world, but not the most voluminous. Ten countries in the Nile basin all use Nile water, which will not last forever. My view is we must move toward rapid nuclear-powered desalination to take salt out of Mediterranean seawater and build the equivalent of a second Nile. The idea of competition over the Nile is not the right way to look at it; it’s about development. Egyptians have adopted a British imperialist policy because Queen Victoria gave it to them in 1903; it’s their river. This is artificial. The first agreement was in 1929 between the British Sudan and Egypt, both under British control, which is British imperialism. The second agreement in 1959 was between Egypt and Sudan, no longer under British control, but with the same division of water. Ethiopia wasn’t at either conference. The water from the Blue Nile is not part of any agreement, but the colonial view is that they must have guarantees on the water from the Blue Nile. The dam has three mechanisms to maintain a continuous flow of water downstream, so downstream countries get a more regulated and concentrated flow from the reservoir.

Five of the thirteen waterways of the GERD that direct water from the reservoir to drive the turbines

Sudan is intimidated by Egypt, but it should align with Ethiopia they benefit from it. Egypt should give up this colonialist mentality. They never saw the Blue Nile basin as a development but as a water tank to be used in droughts to help Egyptian farmers. There is huge potential in the Blue Nile basin; three additional hydroelectric plants can be built. None would be as large as the GERD, but would add electricity. We are at the beginning of the process. The idea is to think in terms of development and countries working together for the development of the nations of the Nile. It’s a fate accompli; nothing can stop the dam, but a more enlightened mentality is needed.

This also relates to port access to the Red Sea, another important waterway. The 1993 agreement, after Eritrea separated, left the port of Assab, a natural port for Ethiopia, in southern Eritrea, but it’s not used. Eritreans can’t see the benefit of working with Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s economy is the biggest and fastest-growing in East Africa. Developing that port would bring revenue, commerce, trade, and millions of tons of freight. But antagonisms and shortsightedness prevent progress.

From a physical economist’s standpoint, a good leader must think 20 to 40 years ahead for future generations. It’s natural that an agreement on Assab would be worked out to fight poverty and hunger in the region. People don’t think this way. Hopefully, there will be a peaceful resolution for additional port access because Djibouti charges a lot for access. These are issues to be dealt with by thoughtful leaders for the benefit of their people to raise living standards. Once material standards rise and people live dignified lives, they can focus on developing creative minds. But you can’t get there without material existence.

Horn Review: In light of this, do you see viable frameworks for cooperation around the dam that could support regional food security and climate resilience, or are geopolitical tensions likely to overshadow such efforts?

Horn of Africa, which has huge potential for development (courtesy of hiiraan.com)

Lawrence Freeman: Much of what happens here is shaped by history. Ethiopia is the only country not conquered. I recently saw the museum that Prime Minister Abiy built, celebrating Adwa. My suggestion is that whatever day they inaugurate the dam, they add it as a national holiday, GERD Day, because it can unify the country. Unfortunately, there is a history involving British colonialism, Somalia, Italian colonialism, and Eritrea, which in various ways were manipulated. Somalia, and Somaliland were independent for about five or six days before forming the nation. Somaliland has been functioning almost independently for 30 years or more. This colonial legacy and antagonism prevent regional economic development.

Ethiopia, like all African countries, uses a tiny fraction of its arable land. There is potential for land and actual use of arable land, and an even tinier fraction is irrigated. Ethiopia has just started irrigation, which is excellent. This concept can be used in all African countries. One of my missions is to end poverty and hunger in Africa. Many still live in poverty with very low income per capita. This must change. You can’t do that unless you produce more wealth and put more people to work. The transformation plan and home-grown economic reform of the Prime Minister emphasize manufacturing.

Africa has been prevented from producing real manufacturing industries. Less than 3% of total manufactured goods in the world come from Africa. Ethiopia is working on light industry, leather, and adding value to agricultural products like coffee, the biggest export. Building up manufacturing, next to infrastructure, is an essential part of an economy.

The fundamental issue is that the constitution has to be changed. Everyone knows that, but you need a robust, maybe contentious, discussion, debate, and dialogue with the people of Ethiopia. You have to attack the notion of national ethnic identity, not ethnic culture, but ethnic identity. What must be reinforced is that Ethiopia is a nation-state and its people are citizens of a nation-state, not members of a national ethnicity. Ethnic nationalism is the enemy and is deeply ingrained. There is no congruence between ethnic nationalism and citizenship. People should not give up their rich history, but must see themselves as members of a nation.

Lawrence Freeman, studying the victorious Battle of Adwa that helped shape the identity of Ethiopia

Horn Review: That’s a profound idea. How should international partners engage with Ethiopia’s dual push for food self-sufficiency and energy leadership, given the sensitivity surrounding the dam and regional politics?

Lawrence Freeman: The international community doesn’t understand economic development or Ethiopia. There are many NGOs and international organizations, some being dismantled by the US, but they don’t focus on questions that would change society. If you want to improve life, bring democracy, and good governance, you must put electricity at the top of the list. Without electricity, people don’t develop. Good governance over poverty is meaningless. The West must change its thinking. Look at why Western leaders haven’t complimented Ethiopia on the GERD, the largest hydroelectric dam built without money from World Bank or IMF. Why haven’t presidents visited the GERD? The West is ideologically deficient and prejudiced against development, so they’re not good partners now. This will change because China is outproducing the US in many economic sectors, and the US is contracting its manufacturing base.

The West’s ideology is collapsing, and China and BRICS are growing. Ethiopia is one of three African countries in BRICS. The Global South is forming new political and economic relations based on a new paradigm of development and growth. Hopefully, enlightened leaders in Africa, Latin America, and others will recognize that the world is no longer fixed in a hierarchy. The West must change and recognize that Africa needs long-term, low-interest credit for infrastructure to build hydroelectric and nuclear power plants. Infrastructure itself may not make money, but it raises the economy’s profitability. We should unite with China to help African nations build infrastructure to eliminate poverty and hunger. The West should work with Africa in critical transformational areas.

Garment factory in Ethiopia. Many tens of thousands of Ethiopians employed in the garment industry

Horn Review: From a regional integration perspective, what role could Ethiopia’s emerging industrial base, especially agro-processing and light manufacturing, play in reshaping trade and economic interdependence in Africa?

Lawrence Freeman: Ethiopia’s major export is coffee, which can have added value. Ethiopia is self-sufficient in wheat and can start exporting wheat for foreign exchange. Africa wastes foreign exchange on buying agricultural products and importing food. Ethiopia is close to eliminating this system. Ethiopia has 165 million livestock, the largest in Africa, which supports the leather industry. Ethiopia plans to build steel plants. Ethiopia needs national industries like steel, aluminum, and cement to avoid buying from other countries on their terms.

The West controls the terms of trade. Producing your own goods increases revenue. Tourism is important, but service and tourism make up 40% of GDP, which is not ideal because service and tourism bring revenue but not wealth. Manufacturing, agriculture, and mining should be emphasized. Gold is a big revenue source now. Ethiopia should focus on industry. Ethiopia’s leaders understand this. I’ve worked with many African countries that don’t grasp this economic concept. Ethiopia understands this. There are problems, but progress exists. Maybe it’s not fast enough or comprehensive, but it’s a basis for optimism.

Use of mechanized agriculture improves productivity for Ethiopia’s farmers

Horn Review: Ethiopia is also investing heavily in urban infrastructure and industrial parks. How do you assess the role of urban development in facilitating structural transformation, labor mobility, and regional economic competitiveness?

Lawrence Freeman: I toured Addis Ababa with the mayor’s office and have watched the city change since 2014. It’s almost unrecognizable. Policies include clearing polluted rivers, new walkways, and tree planting. Trees are the best way to improve the environment. Trees are important because they absorb CO2 and produce oxygen. Photosynthesis changes climate through transpiration how much water comes up and down. To change deserts; plant trees. Ethiopia has planted 40 billion seedlings, with 10 billion more to go, which is very positive. People displaced from less developed areas along waterways have not been thrown out but resettled with housing, food, and small manufacturing plots like bakeries. This is positive.

The changes in Addis Ababa, farming, and manufacturing are slow but in the right direction. Ethiopia has 130 million people to employ, which is hard, but this is the direction. There are detractors of Prime Minister Abiy, but I follow his policies carefully. I don’t analyze every political nuance but look at substantial results, which are palatable. This should be encouraged and supported. Criticisms are fine if made in good faith to move the country forward. If you want to criticize, propose better policies. Otherwise, keep quiet and let economic development proceed.

Horn Review: Professor Freeman, we’ve had a very insightful discussion. You have enlightened us, and thank you once again for coming on our podcast. Lawrence Freeman: My pleasure. Happy to do it. (all emphasis added)

Read thye current issue of Horn Review below. My interview begins on page 8.

Horn Review-16th EditionDownload

­͏Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X @lkfreemansafrica 

Egypt Manipulating U.S Senators Against GERD and Ethiopia

Lawrence , , , , ,
Courtesy of en.wikipwedia.org

July 31, 2025

Egypt’s Fading Hydro-Hegemony: Rebutting Foreign Minister Abdelatty’s Claims

Dr, Birhanu Lenjiso, Oromiya, Ethiopia

Egypt’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Badr Abdelatty, in discussion with U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, made controversial statements regarding his country’s position on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and its commitment to safeguarding its water security. His provoking remarks were published by Egypt Today Magazine on July 30, 2025, under the title “Egypt to take all legal measures to Safeguard water security.”

Egypt to take all legal measures to safeguard water security, FM tells US senators

Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr Abdelatty with U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham in Washington D.C.

While I acknowledges Egypt’s concerns as a downstream riparian state, the assertions made by Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs in many ways misrepresent the legal, technical, and cooperative dimensions of the GERD project. In this rebuttal I will try to address five key issues raised in his conversation with U.S. Senator clarifying Ethiopia’s position and reaffirming her commitment to equitable utilization of the Nile River in accordance with international law.

First, Egypt repeatedly claim that the Nile is an “Existential Issue” and its Sole Water Source. The Minister for Foreign Affairs also reiterated the same position in his discussion. It’s true that Egypt relies on Nile for over 90% of her water needs. This clearly reflects the significance of Nile for Egypt or Egypt’s significant reliance on the Nile river, but it doesn’t by any means negate the legitimate rights of upstream riparian states, like Ethiopia which contributes approximately 85% of the Nile’s flow, to utilize the Nile for their own socio-economic development. This reality has been clouded by Egypt’s now fading hydro-hegemony. 

Under the principles of international water law, notably the 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, all riparian states are entitled to “equitable and reasonable utilization” of shared watercourses. The GERD, a non-consumptive hydropower project, is designed to generate electricity without significantly reducing downstream water flows, thereby aligning with Ethiopia’s sovereign right to harness the Blue Nile, which originates within its territory.

On the flip side of Egypt’s framing of Nile as “Existential matter”, Ethiopia faces its own existential challenges, including energy poverty affecting over 60% of its population and limited access to clean water for millions. The GERD is a critical national project to address these existential challenges, which are no less vital than Egypt’s water needs. Furthermore, Egypt has viable other alternatives to enhance its water security, including improving irrigation efficiency and expanding groundwater extraction or desalination projects like other countries in the region. Framing the Nile as Egypt’s sole water source and existential matter not only overlooks other options but also disregards the shared nature of the river, which necessitates balancing the needs of all Nile Basin states.

Second, the Foreign Minister’s allegation that Ethiopia’s actions violate International Law and the 2015 Declaration of Principles (DoP) is not substantiated by the legal framework governing transboundary watercourses. The DoP, signed by Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan, emphasizes cooperation, equitable utilization, and the principle of causing no significant harm. It does not, however, prohibit Ethiopia from proceeding with the filling or operation of the GERD during negotiations, nor does it grant Egypt or Sudan veto power over Ethiopia’s sovereign development projects, like the colonial-era treaties. 

Ethiopia, in fact, has consistently demonstrated good faith by sharing technical data, proposing staged filling schedules to minimize downstream impacts, and engaging in numerous rounds of negotiations facilitated by the African Union and other mediators. Egypt’s claim of unilateral action ignores its own rejection of Ethiopia’s proposed technical solutions and its insistence on maintaining historical water allocations under the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, to which Ethiopia was not a party and which is not binding under international law. Ethiopia’s actions are consistent with its sovereign rights and the DoP’s spirit of cooperation, whereas Egypt’s demand for guaranteed annual water releases risks undermining the principle of equitable utilization.

 Location of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) indicated by the red star, with the basin upstream of the GERD (green) and the Nile Basin (yellow). Source: Ben Zaitchik. Courtesy of www.newsecuritybeat.org

Third, the Foreign Minister also made a claim that GERD threatens the livelihoods of 1.1 million Egyptians and 15% of agricultural lands in his country. This data is speculative and lacks credible evidence linking the GERD operation to such specific impacts. Independent hydrological studies indicate that the GERD’s downstream effects can be effectively mitigated through coordinated filling and operation protocols, particularly during normal or above-average rainfall years. Ethiopia has proposed such measures, including phased filling schedules, which Egypt has consistently rejected in favor of demanding fixed water releases that prioritize its interests over those of other riparian states – in away to maintain her hydro-hegemony.

Moreover, the GERD offers potential benefits to downstream states, including flood regulation and the provision of affordable electricity. Egypt’s portrayal of catastrophic socio-economic consequences overlooks its own water management challenges, such as inefficient irrigation practices, and dismisses the potential for cooperative management to achieve mutual gains. In general, Ethiopia’s pursuit of the GERD is not to cause harm to any riparian country but to address its own pressing developmental needs, which are critical to improving the livelihoods of millions of its citizens.

Fourth, the claim that the United States Support for Egypt’s Water Security is also misleading and harmful for Ethio-American relations. Egypt’s repeated reference to U.S. support for its water security, citing reaffirmation by the former Secretary of State Antony Blinken, does not confer legal or moral superiority to Egypt’s position in the GERD dispute. The United States, as a strategic partner of Egypt, may express diplomatic support, but such statements do not override the principles of international water law, which prioritize equitable and reasonable utilization over unilateral claims. U.S. support for Egypt’s water security is noted, including in statements made by U.S. leaders, but that does not inherently validate Egypt’s position or imply that Ethiopia’s actions are illegitimate. 

Ethiopia has sought impartial mediation facilitated by the African Union, which Egypt has undermined by escalating the issue to forums like the United Nations Security Council, which are less suited to resolving technical water disputes. Ethiopia believes and respectfully submits that external endorsements do not negate its legitimate rights to develop the GERD or the need for a balanced resolution that considers the interests of all riparian states.

Fifth, the Foreign Minister made a claim that Egypt has proposed a middle-ground technical and legal solutions, which Ethiopia has persistently refused. This claim misrepresents the dynamics of the GERD negotiations. Ethiopia has consistently offered practical solutions, including staged filling plans and data-sharing mechanisms, to ensure minimal downstream impacts while advancing its developmental objectives. Egypt’s proposals, however, have often centered on preserving its historical hydro-hegemony, which is disproportionate and rooted in colonial-era agreements that excludes Ethiopia. Such demands effectively seek to grant Egypt veto power over the GERD’s operation, undermining Ethiopia’s sovereignty and the principle of equitable utilization.

The breakdown of negotiations reflects mutual challenges in reaching consensus, not solely Ethiopian intransigence. Egypt’s preference for externalizing the dispute, rather than engaging fully in African Union-led processes, has hindered progress toward a cooperative solution. Ethiopia remains committed to good-faith negotiations that respect the rights and needs of all Nile Basin states, in line with the DoP and international law.

In conclusion, Ethiopia as always reaffirms its commitment to the equitable and reasonable utilization of the Nile River, recognizing the shared importance of this vital resource to all riparian states. The GERD is a transformative project aimed at addressing Ethiopia’s existential developmental challenges, including energy poverty and economic underdevelopment, without causing significant harm to downstream neighbors. Egypt’s portrayal of the GERD as an existential threat overlooks the potential for regional cooperation, Ethiopia’s sovereign rights, and the need for modern water management practices in Egypt to complement Nile flows.

Ethiopia continues to call for genuine dialogue under the auspices of the African Union, guided by the principles of the 2015 Declaration of Principles and international water law, to achieve a mutually beneficial agreement. Ethiopia stands ready to collaborate with all riparian countries to ensure the Nile remains a source of prosperity and cooperation for all, rather than a point of contention.

Note: https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/141428/Egypt-to-take-all-legal-measures-to-safeguard-water-security

Read below my earlier posts on this topic

Completed Ethiopia Dam-GERD Can Power East African Nations

The Legacy & Vision of The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Ethiopia’s Majestic GERD Is Not Appreciated By The U.S. & West

­͏Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X @lkfreemansafrica 

Trump Administration Intervention Against Ethiopia Undermines Africa’s Progress

Lawrence , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

October9, 2020

While I have rarely, if ever agreed with any position of the {London School of Economics}, or for that matter, the {Washington Post}, and don’t’ support all the content that is contained in the article below, it is undeniably true; President Trump’s cutting aid to Ethiopia is harmful to the Africa continent. There is no justification for supporting a British colonial legacy that denies Ethiopia the right to develop its nation by harnessing the power of the Blue Nile. Ethiopia, with its large population, is aspiring to improve the conditions of life for its people, and eliminate poverty. It is attempting to become a leading manufacturing nation in Africa, which will not be possible without access to electrical power. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), with its capacity to generate, 6,200 megawatts, is potentially not only a “game changer” for Ethiopia, but also for its neighboring nations in the Horn of Africa. Sadly, the Trump administration continues to repeat unfounded allegations against China, which include claims that China has imperialist designs for Africa. And  without a shred of evidence, claiming that China is attempting to trap African nations into unpayable debt so they can seize their assets. Reality is, Africa needs massive investments in infrastructure to industrialize its economies. China is collaborating with African nations to build energy plants, railroads, airports, etc., and the US, under President Trump, has followed the same wrong headed policy of his predecessors, who foolishly repeat the mantra-“the US doesn’t build infrastructure.”

Far better than undermining the progress of Ethiopia, an emerging African nation, President Trump should reverse course and support the development of Africa. It is not too late. Read my earlier post: Trump’s Aid Cut Harmful to Ethiopia and All of Africa

A conflict is brewing on the Nile — and the Trump administration is making things worse-

Excerpts:

“This summer has seen significant escalation between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan over the filling of the new Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the latest front in a long–standing dispute between the countries over rights to the Nile’s water. The United States has tried to play the role of a mediator in such disputes. But in September, the Trump administration announced it would slash Ethiopia’s aid budget by $130 million, intervening in support of Egypt and exacerbating tensions.

“Ever since construction began on the dam in 2011 — and indeed for decades before that — it has been a flash point in the region. The problem is that all parties have a point. The GERD would provide Ethiopia with clean, cheap and abundant energy — a much-needed addition to a country in which 55 percent of people lack electricity and 27 percent live in poverty. Failing to move forward with the dam’s filling would deprive 65 million Ethiopians of substantial energy potential, condemning them to inadequate living standards and sluggish economic prospects.
“Yet to dam a river that provides 90 percent of Egypt’s freshwater will deepen that country’s perilous water crisis. In recent years, Egypt’s persistent water deficit has strained its agricultural industry and upended life in many parts of the country…
“The issue is complex and requires careful mediation, but the Trump administration has taken a different approach. By cutting aid to Ethiopia, Washington appears to be pressuring it to accept Egypt’s demands: to slow the dam’s filling and sign up for deferential water-sharing quotas. In practice, the abrupt move has worsened the dispute — hardening Ethiopia’s resolve, emboldening Egypt’s nationalism and undermining the United States’ own credibility as an international mediator.”

Read: Egypt-Ethiopia Standoff on Nile

Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in the economic development policy of Africa for over 30 years. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com

Africa Requires Ethiopia Fill Its Dam

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Artist drawing of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 

Africa Requires Ethiopia Fill Its Dam

Lawrence Freeman

July 17, 2020

Ethiopia is entering a crucial period for the future of its nation, as we approach the second half of July. Ethiopia must use the forthcoming rainy season (July to September) to begin the partial filling of its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) being built on Ethiopia’s Blue Nile River. When fully completed, the GERD, Africa’s largest hydroelectric project is capable of producing over 6,000 megawatts (MW). This is not only a game changer for Ethiopia, but will contribute to transforming the Horn of Africa.

The Blue Nile, which joins the White Nile just north of Khartoum, Sudan, provides 86% of the water that becomes the Nile River. From there, the Nile flows north through the deserts of Sudan and Egypt before emptying into the Mediterranean Sea.  Ethiopia has been involved in intense discussions with Sudan and Egypt, downstream from the dam, about the amount of water to be withdrawn from the Blue Nile to begin filling the GERD’s 76 billion cubic meter storage/reservoir. Egypt continuously attempts to forestall the filling of the dam, alleging that since it is dependent on the Nile, if the volume of the Nile is reduced, its citizens will suffer irreparable harm. For most of the last century Egypt has received the majority of the Nile River’s 84 billion cubic meters (bcm) of water.

Electricity for Development

The GERD, which is 75% finished was entirely funded by the Ethiopian people, is a $5 billion water infrastructure project initiated in 2011. Its purpose is to provide much needed electricity to power Ethiopia’s transition from an agrarian dominated economy to one that encompasses manufacturing and industry. In the years ahead, Ethiopia envisions become a light manufacturing hub for Africa, increasing manufacturing output, and manufacturing jobs by 440%.

The functioning of the GERD is not an option for this emerging nation of 110 million people, but a categorical necessity.

As a physical economist, who has studied Africa for decades, and knows the key drivers of economic growth, I can tell you that nothing is more vital for the survival of Africa, than the production of electricity.  Without abundant and accessible electricity, poverty and disease will not be eliminated. Poverty is the number one enemy of Africa and is the cause of immense suffering for hundreds of millions of Africans.

Approximately 600 million Africans, almost half of the continent’s population, are not connected to a central energy grid. The overwhelming majority of them reside in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). More than 65 million Ethiopians, 40-45% of the population, do not have access to electricity. While Ethiopia suffers from one of the lowest per capita levels of electrical energy consumption, Egypt’s population of 100 million has 100% access.

When completed, the GERD will increase Ethiopia’s power generation from its current level of 4,500 MW to close to 11,000 MW, which will make it the second largest energy producer in SAA, behind South Africa. Ethiopia has already entered into agreements to export its excess electricity to other nations in East Africa.

“The Ethiopians officials have announced an annual investment of one billion dollars over the next decade in the development of specialized industrial parks.” (Courtesy Medafricatimes.com)

Ethiopia’s commitment to construct the GERD resonates with the same vision that compelled the nation to build the Addis-Ababa to Djibouti rail line; to expand their economy, eliminate poverty, and provide a meaningful future for their expanding young population.

While Ethiopia is blessed with several water systems, the Blue Nile provides between 70% of its surface water. Ethiopia suffers from water shortages, droughts, and food insecurity due to inadequate infrastructure and under development.

It is true that Egypt has one of the lowest water per capita consumption rates in the world at 570 cubic meters per year, well below the global average of 1,000. Ethiopia’s amount is a mere 125 cubic meters per capita, barely more than 20% of Egypt’s level.

However, the Ethiopia government has plainly stated that the intention of the GERD is not to provide water for irrigation or consumption. The motivation and sacrifice of the Ethiopian people in undertaking this mega infrastructure project is to provide electrical power for the purpose of developing their nation. Ethiopia intends on becoming a low-middle income nation. It can no longer allow its people to be without electricity, relegated to burning wood. Improving the lives of their citizens today and future generations is the objective of an operational GERD.

Blue Nile joins White Nile in Khartoum, Sudan

 

Sovereignty Versus Colonialism  

The Blue Nile descends from Lake Tana, deep inside Ethiopia’s mountains, traveling through Ethiopia before entering Sudan. The GERD will capture Blue Nile waters about 40 meters before the Sudanese border. Ethiopia intends to fill the dam’s reservoir with 14.5 bcm of water over the first two years for testing. The withdrawing of this amount from the Blue Nile’s 49 bcm will not adversely affect downstream nations (Sudan, Egypt). In fact, the GERD will benefit these nations by regulating the flow of the Nile, preventing flooding, reducing silt, and decreasing evaporation.

Ethiopia has the wonderful distinction in Africa of having never been colonized. Unlike my beloved American July 4th, celebrating our independence from the British Empire, Ethiopia has no Independence Day. Instead, Ethiopia celebrates Adwa Day, March 1, 1896, when they defeated the Italian army on the battlefield in northern Ethiopia. Yet Ethiopia is fighting the remnants of British colonialism today in its determination to generate energy to free its people from the bondage of poverty.

Contrary to Egyptian claims, the negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan are not about water sharing or water allocation. There have been two water allocation agreements regarding the Nile waters, that involved only Egypt and Sudan. Ethiopia was not a signatory nor participants to either accord, yet Egypt asserts historical rights over the Nile River, including Ethiopia’s Blue Nile. The most recent such agreement was in 1959, three years after Sudan’s independence from Britain, which recodified the 1929 British Imperialist agreement guaranteeing 55 bcm of Nile waters to Egypt and 18.5 bcm to Sudan. At the time of the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty, both Egypt and Sudan were colonies of Great Britain as stipulated by the 1899 Anglo-Egyptian Condominium.  This treaty also “granted Egypt veto power over construction projects on the Nile or any of its tributaries in an effort to minimize any interference with the flow of water into the Nile.”

To maintain geo-political domination and control of trade along the eastern spine of Africa, Britain maintained authority over the Nile waters from Cairo down to Khartoum and beyond into southern Sudan.

Ethiopia, an independent nation was not subject to Britain’s edicts and retained sovereignty over the Blue Nile.

Thus, from whence does Egypt’s historical claim to dominance of the Nile originate.

In a statement signed by the Reverend Jesse Jackson, sent to the Honorable Congresswoman Karen Bass, Chair of the Black Caucus, dated May 19, 2020, Rev. Jackson reveals that Egypt’s “historical rights” over the Nile are derived from the British Queen.

He cites a letter dated May 7, 1929, from Mahmoud Pasha, Chairman of the Egyptian Council of Ministers, to the British requesting affirmation of Egypt’s “natural and historical” rights to the waters of the Nile. Lord Lloyd, Britain’s High Commissioner in Cairo, responded on behalf of the Queen:

“I would like to remind your Excellency [Mahmoud Pasha] that her Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom has already recognized the natural and historical rights of Egypt to the waters of the Nile. I am entrusted with the responsibility of declaring that Her Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom considers the observance of these rights as a fundamental principle of the policy of Great Britain.” 

Rev. Jackson stresses in his letter, that Ethiopia should not be pressured “into signing a neo-colonial agreement will make Egypt a hegemon over the Nile River.”

U.S. Gets Involved

In September, Egyptian President Al-Sisi requested U.S. assistance in negotiating the operation of the GERD. President Trump asked Treasury Department to host a series of meetings in Washington DC, beginning in November 2019. Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt attended along with a representative of the World Bank, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, to act as an impartial observer, not a mediator. Ethiopia compromised by indicating they would extend the filling beyond 3 years, to 5-7 years and increased the amount of water to be released from 35 bcm to 40 bcm in seasons of healthy rain. With the negotiations failing to lead to a resolution, Ethiopia requested to postpone the February 27-28 meeting. The meeting proceeded without Ethiopia. Sudan and Egypt attending, but Egypt alone initialed an agreement prepared without Ethiopia’s input, which the Ethiopia Foreign Ministry characterized as “unacceptable and highly partisan.”

On February 28, 2020, an official statement from the US Treasury Department praised Egypt’s “readiness to sign the agreement,” and instructed Ethiopia that “final testing and filling should not take place without an agreement.” The next day, Ambassador Shinn (ret), former ambassador to Ethiopia, whose has spent decades in the State Department, questioned whether the U.S. was “putting its thumb on the scale in favor of Egypt.”

In a June 22, 2020 bipartisan letter addressed to Ambassador David Hale, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, seven former Assistant Secretaries of State for African Affairs, asked the U.S. to embrace neutrality regarding the GERD talks. They wrote:

“The U.S. position at this sensitive juncture will also have long term implications. It will either strengthen or seriously weaken our future relations with Ethiopia. While there is no question that resolution of the Nile issue will require flexibility and compromise on all sides, it is not politically viable for Prime Minister Abiy (or any Ethiopian politician) to indefinitely delay filling the GERD. However, the perception—rightly or wrongly—that the United States has sided with Egypt in the negotiations will limit our ability to support efforts aimed at reaching a settlement.”

President Cyril Ramaphosa, Chair of the African Union convening the teleconference on the GERD

 Discussions Move to Africa

Egypt, not satisfied with the negotiating process, attempted to involve the United Nations in forcing an agreement on Ethiopia that violated its sovereignty over the GERD. On June 29, 2020, Egypt with the support of the U.S. brought the matter to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The UNSC is not the normal forum to settle such matters, but Egyptians were hoping to mobilize international pressure against Ethiopia. The UNSC has instead preferred to have the African Union (AU) resolve the issue of Ethiopia’s right to operate the GERD. On the previous Friday, June 26, the Extraordinary African Union Bureau of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government conducted a video-teleconference meeting on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat noted that more than 90% of the issues between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan had been resolved.

South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa, in his capacity as the Chairperson of the AU is committed to have “an African led process in the spirit of African solutions to African problems.”

In a June 23rd statement, the U.S. Congressional Caucus emphasized the pivotal role of the AU in these tripartite negotiations. They went on to discuss the importance of the GERD for Africa.

The GERD project will have a positive impact on all countries involved and help combat food security and lack of electricity and power, supply more fresh water to more people, and stabilize and grow the economies of the region.”

The Conference of Black Mayors, in a June 29th statement, expressed their support for the filling of the GERD

“Today, on behalf of global leaders throughout the African diaspora that hold the office of mayor, the Conference of Black Mayors released the following statement in support of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the impact GERD would have on Conference of Black Mayors member cities…

“It is known that Ethiopia generates 86% of the Nile waters but has been unable to use this considerable natural resource effectively in the past. Now, following more than a decade of impressive economic growth, Ethiopia desires to utilize its naturally endowed resource for its nation’s critical growth and development. Countries throughout Africa are in dire need of electric power to enable and sustain their respective nations rise out of poverty. The creation of a sustainable energy source will create a national infrastructure that directly contributes to the wellbeing of citizens our mayors represents through our global mayors’ association…

“We strongly support a timely fill of the dam without further delays to avoid the economic impact on Ethiopia and neighboring countries.”

 Ethiopia is desirous to cooperate with downstream nations, but it will not have its sovereignty violated by having the operation of the GERD jointly managed or contingent on the requirements of water for Egypt’s downstream High Aswan Dam.

Ethiopia should and will begin filling the GERD. It would be irresponsible not to use this year’s rainy season to begin filling the reservoir, with the dam already 75% constructed. Ethiopia’s leadership will not disappoint the aspirations of the Ethiopian people, who view the GERD as emblematic of their national identity, and a critical vehicle to raise their standard of living and secure a more prosperous future for their posterity.

Ethiopia’s use of the word Renaissance in describing its new dam is not metaphorical. When fully functional, the GERD will lead to a rejuvenation of Ethiopia’s economy and that of its neighboring nations.

Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in the economic development policy of Africa for 30 years. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com

 

Is the Trump Administration Violating Ethiopia’s Sovereignty?

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(Courtesy Ethiopian Foreign Ministry FACEBOOK)

Is the Trump Administration Violating Ethiopia’s Sovereignty?

Lawrence Freeman

March 10, 2020

In the first week of March, representatives of President Trump’s administration presented conflicting responses on Ethiopia’s right to operate the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) for the production of electrical power for the nations of East Africa. The construction of the GERD is over 70% complete and is expected to commence operation in 2021, with a capacity to generate 6,200 megawatts of electricity.  The GERD built near the border of Sudan, will be filled by water from the Blue Nile, that flows from Lake Tana, located in the mountainous region of Ethiopia. Ethiopia cannot be deprecated for exercising its sovereign right to exploit its most important resource, water, for the benefit of its people, and neighboring African nations.

Ethiopia and the two downstream nations, Sudan and Egypt, have been involved in discussions that now primarily focus on the “fill rate”-how much water is withdrawn each year from the Blue Nile to fill the GERD’s 79 billion cubic meter reservoir. Egypt is justifiably concerned about how the reduced flow of the Blue Nile resulting from filling the reservoir will affect the level of water reaching Egypt’s High Aswan Dam.  The Blue Nile contributes 85% of the Nile’s volume of water when it joins the White Nile just north of Khartoum.

Without harming downstream nations, the GERD requires a minimal fill rate to permit the generation of electricity. Egypt, claiming that filling the GERD reservoir with water from the Blue Nile will cause hardship for its people, has made excessive demands on Ethiopia to guarantee an unreasonable allocation of the Nile’s water. This is principally an issue to be resolved by the engineers in the technical committees of the three nations.

Since December, the Trump administration has hosted, several meetings of the three nations in Washington, under the auspices of the US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin. Secretary Mnuchin’s involvement was to be as a neutral observer, not a mediator. However, recent written and oral statements from Mnuchin, and the Treasury Department, has called into question the impartiality of the US. Retired Ambassador David Shinn’s blog of February 29, he questioned whether, the United States seems to be “putting its thumb on the scale in favor of Egypt.”

Mnuchin Not Impartial

Following the decision by the Ethiopian delegation not to participate in the February 27-28 meeting with Sudan and Egypt, Mnuchin publicly tipped his hand in favor of Egypt. In a February 28th letter, the U.S. Department of the Treasury wrote that Egypt initialed an agreement on the GERD, and instructed Ethiopia that “final testing and filling should not take place without any agreement.”  Feb 28 letter by Secretary of the Treasury on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.  The truth is, there is no existing document to be initialed or signed, because such an agreement can only come about as the fruitful result of the participation by the representatives of all three nations.  Mnuchin, has no legal or political authority to instruct Ethiopia about the functioning of the GERD.

The next day, on February 29, Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs rebuffed Mnuchin’s letter: “The ‘text’ reportedly initialed by the Arab Republic of Egypt in Washington D.C. is not the outcome of the negotiation or the technical and legal discussion of the three countries.” The Foreign Ministry wrote: “Ethiopia as the owner of the GERD will commence first filling of the GERD in parallel with the construction of the Dam in accordance with the principles of equitable and reasonable utilization and the causing of no significant harm as provided for under the Agreement on the Declaration of Principles (DoP).”

On March 3, testifying before the House Ways and Means committee, Mnuchin was even more blatant in his disregard for Ethiopia’s sovereignty over the GERD. Congressman Steven Horsford (D-Nev) asked Mnuchin to correct the narrative that the US is not trying to impose its will on Ethiopia and requested a balanced approach towards all the core nations involved. Mnuchin brazenly responded, “Ethiopia should not fill the dam until there is an agreement signed.” Presently, Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have not formulated any agreement to be signed. Clearly, Mnuchin has without any mandate, expanded his role as a neutral moderator to an advocate for Egypt’s position.

(Courtesy of Yale Environment 360)

State Department Doesn’t Agree

On the very same day that Mnuchin was infringing on Ethiopia’s sovereignty, another branch of the Trump administration, the U.S. State Department, had a different response to the GERD negotiations. On March 3, the Woodrow Wilson Africa Program sponsored a forum, The Trump Administration and U.S. Africa Policy: What has been accomplished and what lies ahead? The speaker was Tibor P. Nagy, Jr., Assistant Secretary, Bureau of African affairs, an experienced ambassador to Africa. I was able to question him about the US position towards Ethiopia. Specifically, I asked, since President extols national sovereignty for the U.S. and repeatedly exalts “America First,” wasn’t it a double standard to deny Ethiopia the same sovereign rights regarding the GERD? Nagy then flatly contradicted Mnuchin, when he answered, “What I can say is that the U.S. has consistently said we are neutral in that whole business.” Nagy’s boss, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in Addis Ababa on February 18, said “A great deal of work remains, but I’m optimistic that over the coming months we can resolve this.” Clearly Nagy and Pompeo are not operating on the timetable of President Trump and Mnuchin who wanted the deal resolved by the end of February.

Sudan Differs With Egypt and Arab League

Mnuchin’s letter of February 28, implies that Sudan supported the so called agreement written without Ethiopia’s participation. Sudan in fact refused to add its initials to those of Egypt on the agreement. This indicates that it was only Egypt, just one of the three nations involved, who with Mnuchin, took this stance.

According to an article from Middle East News Agency (MENA), Sudan rejected a resolution from the Arab League supporting Egypt’s position regarding the GERD on March 5. MENA reports that Sudan, “asked not to include their name in the decision [resolution], and added that decision is not in Sudan’s interest…”   (emphasis added.) At the Arab League Summit, Sudan formally withdrew its name from the resolution criticizing Ethiopia.

Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the Arab League resolution in a strongly worded statement on March 6. They wrote, “Ethiopia expresses its profound appreciation to Sudan’s principled position that helps advance win-win solutions for all parties involved through a commitment to open dialogue. Ethiopia reiterated that it “has the right to use its Nile water resource to meet the needs of the present and future generations.” March 6 Statement on Arab League

Africa Needs Energy

Once the GERD is completed, it will have the capacity to produce 6,200 megawatts of electrical power. This will benefit not only the people of Ethiopia, but also those nations of the Horn of Africa and beyond. Sub-Saharan Africa needs energy, and lots of it-minimally 1 million additional megawatts. It is a matter of survival. Without abundant and accessible electricity, African nations will not develop, and thus be subjected to various forms of destabilization due to rising unemployment of its youth and persisting poverty. Ethiopia has taken a bold step in constructing the largest hydro-electric dam in Africa intended to develop the Nile River Basin. All existing difficulties can and must be resolved in a dialogue among the three principal nations, who share this majestic historic waterway, the birthplace of ancient civilizations.

There is no intrinsic conflict between Ethiopia and the down stream nations of Egypt and Sudan, as Sudan has already implicitly recognized.

It is appropriate here to repeat what I wrote last October: “How many years will it take to fill the GERD’s reservoir, and what will be the flow rate of the Nile at the Aswan Dam, are yet to be resolved. These are technical matters that scientists and engineers must continue to examine in an atmosphere of good will and good faith. Such cooperation is essential to promote the common interests of all nations for a prosperous Nile Basin.” Grand Renaissance Dam Essential for Africa’s Economic Growth

Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in the economic development policy of Africa for 30 years. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com