President Trump’s so called “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs, April 2, 2025.
February 13, 2026
President Trump’s administration has at times associated its economic policy with that of Alexander Hamilton’s American System of Political Economy. Last month, at the Davos World Economic forum, U.S. Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, presented a fairly accurate history of the application of tariffs from the President George Washington to President Franklin Roosevelt. However, his presentation was disingenuous for what it omitted.
Hamilton’s American System
Most people do not know that Alexander Hamilton’s establishment of the FirstNational Bank was an ingenious invention to reorganize the huge debts of the colonies to fund, supply capital, for a national credit facility. The establishment of this new credit capability was critical to the development and unification of the thirteen bankrupt fledgling colonies. Hamilton, insisting on the creation of a manufacturing sector had to fight against the backwardness of those, who intended for the United States to remain an agrarian based economy. Hamilton knew that for the United States to become an industrialized economy, internal improvements (infrastructure) were essential, which required the issuance of credit backed by the federal government. These were the key pillars, along with tariffs to protect (nurture) indigenous manufacturing, which comprised Hamilton’s American System.
Hamilton’s economic principles are explicated in his four reports (listed below) approved by President George Washington, which transformed our young nation into an economic powerhouse.
Provision for the support of Public Credit, January 9th, 1790
Provision necessary for the establishment of a Public Credit (Report on a National Bank), December 13th, 1790
Opinion on the Constitutionality of the Bank, February 23rd, 1791
Report on Manufacturers, December 5th, 1791
Courtesy of sothebys.com
Trump’s Tariff Fraud
U.S. Trade Representative, Jamison Greer, obscured Hamilton’s American System byconspicuouslyrefusing to discuss Hamilton’s bank, and his policy to issue inexpensive credit for manufacturing and infrastructure. He intentionally only discussed tariffs. Tariffs by themselves do not generate new economic wealth nor generate growth in manufacturing. Hamilton and his students/followers, who spread his new American System school of economics to Europe, Russia and China, would have vehemently opposed President Trump’s misuse of tariffs, especially employing tariffs as a political weapon.
No one in the circles of President Trump, including Jamison Greer, will discuss the central feature of Hamilton’s American System, a national bank for issuance of credit to generate economic growth, especially in manufacturing. Greer et al are frauds, who are attempting to cloak their wrongheaded tariffs as Hamiltonian.
While Hamilton’s American System succeeded in building a mighty industrial Republic, President Trump’s tariff policy has been a miserable failure. Those of us, who have studied and understand Hamilton’s principles of economic science, predicted that President Trump’s senseless tariff regime in isolation, would fail.
John Trumbull’s portrait of Alexander Hamilton courtesy of themagazineantiques.com
Trump’s Tariff Failure
A just released report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, refutes President Trump’s claim that Americans are not paying for his reckless tariff policy. According to the bank, from January to August 2025; U.S. importers paid a whopping 94% of the increased price of imports due to President Trump’s tariff. For the months of September and October it was 92%. Therefore, it should be clear to everyone, that it is American businesses and citizens, who are absorbing the cost of President Trump’s failed, anti-Hamiltonian tariffs.
According to a new Gallup polling, Americans are more pessimistic about their future. Less than 60% of Americans surveyed in 2025, the first year of President Trump’s return to office, thought their lives would be better in five years. Those satisfied with their current lives is the second lowest in U.S. history.
The US trade deficit in goods for 2025 is projected to reach $1.26 trillion, an increase from 2024.
Paul Gallagher of EIR magazine exposes more failures of Trump’s tariff policy:
One year later, we can say that that policy has failed. Although tariffs did generate revenues amounting to some $250 billion, a study published on Jan. 19 by the Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft, shows that that money did not flow from abroad into the United States
But were the conditions created to allow U.S. manufacturers to replace those imports, which had become more expensive? Were industrial jobs created? Not quite. Manufacturing employment sank for 11 of the 12 months of 2025. Manufacturing activity ended the year at its lowest monthly level: Global demand for U.S. products (new orders) was declining, all the while that global manufacturing production was increasing,
But what has grown is debt: government debt, corporate debt, household debt and banking debt—although the latter is hidden behind “assets.” At this point, 20% of the government budget goes to pay debt service. Corporate debt increased by several billion dollars in one year, while household debt in Q3 2025 was at $18.9 trillion, an increase of $642 billion year-on-year. That amounts to the entire budget of a major industrialized country such as Germany.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
Watch my 45 minute discussion on Sunday Politics on Trust TV, Nigeria. Unpacking President Trump’s continuing threats against Nigeria. January 11, 2026
January 13, 2026
In a lengthy interview with the New York Times on January 9, 2026, President Trump threatened more missile attacks on Nigeria. His continued attempt to intimidate Nigeria is based on his false claim that the Nigerian government is allowing genocide against Christians living in Nigeria. This course of action, essentially terrorizing Nigerians with his whimsical threats, is dangerous to all Nigerians, including Christians, as well as to the entire continent of Africa.
After declaring Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern on October 31, President Trump proceeded to threaten to cut one billion USD of aid, and militarily intervene into Nigeria with guns blazing. President Trump claimed this was necessary to save our great Christian population around the world.
To the complete surprise of the people of Nigeria and their government, on Christmas Day, 2025, the U.S. military fired sixteen Tomahawk missiles into the Bauni Forest in the State of Sokoto, northwest Nigeria. The alleged target was the Lakurawa group, a lower level militia that claims affiliation with the Islamic State. This military attack on Nigeria by the so called U.S. Department of War, was a failure, actually impotent, despite claims by the Trump administration that the operation was a complete success that killed multitudes of ISIS fighters.
The concentration of leaders of ISIS is in northeast Nigeria, in Borno State, not in the northwest state of Sokoto.
Four of the sixteen Tomahawk missiles did not explode-a 25% failure rate.
Some of the unexploded missiles were found hundreds of miles from the target.
There is no evidence that any high-level ISIS targets were killed by the missile attack, or even how many.
Yet, President Trump foolishly threatened another missile attack on Nigeria January 9.
Trump’s Motivation
What does President Trump not know about Nigeria? Everything!
He like many American Presidents, knows nothing about African nations. He has no understanding of the complex dynamics of Nigeria, and he doesn’t care about the welfare of 240 million Nigerians. His crusade to save the Christians in Nigeria from genocide is identical to his false campaign to protect white farmers from South African genocide. President Trump is not concerned with Africans, white or black, Christian or Muslim. These are domestically manufactured issues to appease his MAGA white-evangelical base in the U.S.
Consider the fact that Nigeria: has vast reserves of oil and the largest reserves of gas in the world; for the first time in its existence, it is refining and exporting large quantities of its own processed oil; is a partner member nation of the BRICS; has close economic ties with China, with over 20 billion USD invested in Nigeria by China last year.
It is estimated that Nigeria has 37.28 billion barrels of oil and 210.54 trillion cubic feet of gas.
Trump’s Prejudice vs Development
American leaders, both Democratic and Republican, unfortunately have the same unthinking deficiency as President Trump. They all fail to understand that it is in the genuine national self-interest of the U.S., for Nigeria to achieve successful economic growth. American presidents, such as John Kennedy and Franklin Roosevelt, knew the importance of promoting economic development as a fundamental principle of foreign policy. That concept has been forgotten, nay, completely vanished from American lexicon. Presently, the U.S. is bereft of leaders, who comprehend, that raising the standard of living of every Nigerian, indeed all Africans, is a benefit to America’s economy and security.
Unfortunately, President Trump has a deep-seated prejudice regarding the advancement of our civilization. His special advisor, Stephen Miller, put it this way: We live in a world that is governed by force…governed by power…These are the iron laws of the world. This is blatantly untrue. It could never be true. Yet, it is through this perverted lens that President Trump views Nigeria, and Africa. All true statesmen know that civilization is governed by human creativity. The real criminality is President Trump’s betrayal of America’s principles in favor of Thomas Hobbes’ bestial belief of humankind.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
On Tuesday, November 11, 2025, Mathew Ehret (risingtidefoundation.net), and Lawrence Freeman, dissected what is behind Predesign Trump’s fallacious accusation of genocide against Christians in Nigeria.
November 16, 2025
There is no honest justification for President Trump to threaten Nigeria with false allegations of genocide. As you can see below, both the Nigerian government and the African Union have rejected this claim. A unilateral military intervention by the U.S. Department of War would be an egregious violation of Nigeria’s sovereignty. It would also pose a security challenge not just to Nigeria, but to all of West Africa, with consequences that could rival President Obama’s regime change of Libya’s government in 2011.
If President Trump was actually seriously concerned with the security challenge in Nigeria, he should address the underlying problem: massive poverty. It is reported that Nigeria has 129 million people living in extreme poverty, which is more an 18% of the world poverty total of 700 million living on $3 USD per day or less. Africa as a whole has almost 500 million people living in poverty. Nigeria is energy starved with less than 10,000 megawatts of electricity for almost 240 billion citizens. Nigeria’s population is projected to reach 450 million by the year 2050, a mere one generation from now.
As long as these levels of physical existence continue to exist and do not drastically improve through massive investments in infrastructure, Nigeria will suffer needless killings. Poverty breeds desperation, and desperate people will drive criminality and violent extremism. Instead of threatening Nigeria, the United States should form a partnership with Nigeria for economic development. If President Trump wants to leave behind a truly noble legacy, he would propose to President Xi Jinping, a joint mission led by the U.S. and China to eliminate poverty, and hunger across the African continent
In the video interview with Sky News, Nigerian government Minister of communications Mohammed Idris said, “We believe they are getting a better understanding of the situation. We also believe that the information being peddled is as a result of a lack of a proper understanding of Nigeria’s diversity and the complexity of our security situation.”
Nigerian government Minister of communications Mohammedrejects accusations of genocide against Christians in Nigeria. Watch his interview with Sky News,
Watch the video below in which the African Union supports the Nigerian government in rejecting the allegation of genocide in Nigeria.
Below is my interview with Trust TV in Nigeria on November 9, 2025
“Trump’s Intervention in Nigeria Would Be the Stupidest, Foolish Move He Has Done”—Lawrence Freeman
Freeman, who has visited Nigeria more than 16 times since 1994 and worked closely with government officials, military leaders, and development projects, emphasized the importance of addressing the root causes of insecurity. His work includes supporting initiatives like the Transaqua Project to restore Lake Chad and participating in conferences aimed at promoting economic growth and regional stability. He stressed that policies focused on development and poverty reduction are better suited to curbing violent extremism than military action.
“Now, when you start military activity, kinetic warfare, you then open up a whole potential of disasters. With Trump’s intervention, he would be in the same league as President Obama, who destroyed Northern Africa and essentially helped Boko Haram and AQIM grow by overthrowing Gaddafi in October 2011, 14 years ago. Would Trump’s actions reproduce that same effect throughout West Africa? It’s possible. It would be the stupidest, foolish move that Trump has done. I don’t think it will occur, but because I think he’s a little bit unstable mentally, there is a potential that it could occur. We have to do everything we can now to prevent it by proposing solutions and alternate policies, such as promoting economic growth for Nigeria, which would eliminate much of the poverty that fuels violent extremism,” Freeman said.
In an interview on Trust TV, Lawrence Freeman said that initiating military action in Nigeria could trigger major instability across the region. He pointed to past interventions in Northern Africa, which produced unintended consequences, and warned that a US-led military operation could destabilize Nigeria and fuel violent extremism in West Africa. U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats toward Nigeria could have serious consequences, according to American analyst Lawrence Freeman. opr.news
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
On Sunday, November 9, Lawrence Freeman was interviewed by IIiyasu Gadu, on Sunday Politics-Trust TV. Please watch the brief interview above for my unique analysis of President Tramp’s false claim of genocide against Christians in Nigeria.
November 10, 2025
President Trump’s belligerent posture towards Nigeria stems from a combination of motivations. His continuation of President Biden’s world view that is based on the diseased zero-sum mentality of the rules-based international order. And his appeasement to the so called Christian right, which is a large section of his MAGA constituency.
I posted the following tweet on X, Sunday night-Nov 9.
Claim of genocide is deliberately misused for geopolitical reasons-to destabilize nations in Africa. No genocide in Darfur-2004; no genocide in Tigray-2020; no genocide vs Amharas in Ethiopia; no genocide vs Christians in Nigeria; no genocide vs white farmers in South Africa
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lfreemansafrica
My presentation in the podcast above, was focused on the significance of Ethiopia’s completion of the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD). I provide my reasoning that the GERD, which will be officially inaugurated in September, can be considered the most momentous accomplishment for Africa since the liberation from colonialism. The GERD, generating 5,150 megawatts, will be the largest hydro-electric dam in Africa, and one of the largest in the world. On a continent that is starving for electricity, the GERD stands out as a singular accomplishment by an emerging nation addressing its power deficit. This infrastructure marvel, self-funded by the Ethiopian people, up-ends the negative narrative about Africa. This massive, unique structure, generating much needed electricity, can help serve as a model for other nations.
The failure of Western governments, institutions, and media, to publicize this success by Ethiopia, speaks volumes. It exposes their failure to understand the invaluable economic worth of “infrastructure led development,” by an African nation.
It remains unclear how President Trump’s administration will respond to the announcement of the GERD’s completion. At times, in both of his
Presidencies, he has supported Egypt’s false narrative that alleges the GERD will reduce the flow of the Nile River to Egypt. The U.S. has significant financial and geopolitical interests in supporting Egypt in its allegations against Ethiopia’s GERD. Let us hope that President Trump has the vision to comprehend the multi-dimensional contributions of the GERD for Ethiopia and the entire African continent.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
On April 24, 2025, I gave a lecture to the Rising Tide Foundation, which one viewer called: a geopolitical masterclass. My presentation ends at minute 42, and is followed by 35 minutes of discussion.
May 3, 2025
The world has irreversibly changed. The Anglo-American Establishment, also known as the rules-based international order, which has ruled the world since the end of World War II with brief exceptions, is in its most severe crisis in four score years. The multi-national world of the Global South, led by China and the expanded BRICS, represent a new dynamic. As you can hear from my lecture and read in my two recent articles below, the West is aware of its failings, noting that China is far ahead of the United States in vital categories physical economy. To challenge China’s economic superiority, the U.S. establishment would have to abandon their predatory financial system and revive the centuries’ old American System of Political Economy. Do the American elites and Presidency even understand the American System, and are they willing to reform their monetarist predatory system? Is President Trump capable of steering such a new direction for the U.S.? Their existential challenge is; can they survive and continue to exert global domination without resorting to war?
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
China’s superiority has to be countered by a new, advanced coalition of the United States with its allies around the world, according to a just published article in Foreign Affairs, by Kurt Campbell, and Rush Doshi. Underestimating China
I will summarize their essential argument, which is grounded in the flawed axioms of the rules based order and its perverted zero-sum mentality. In brief: 1) China’s superiority over the U.S. has to be acknowledged; 2) China can only be effectively thwarted by a new type of alliance led by the U.S.; 3) U.S. cannot lead such an alliance under President Trump’s current diplomacy.
They argue that the U.S. is weaker than China in vital categories of military and economic capacity, and the West needs a new type of collective strategy with its international partners to respond to China’s hegemony.
This paper was published on April 10, after the imprint of President Donald Trump, but before the consequences of his so called tariff “Liberation Day.” It is more than a wake-up call for the rules-based order, which is already suffering from severe political and financial crises. With brutal honesty and a cache of devastating statistics, the authors attempt to break through any delusions about China’s dominance.
China’s Superiority
They write:
China will remain vastly more powerful than any past U.S. competitor on metrics most relevant for competition…China is the first to outmatch the United States in size alone as well as in several strategically relevant areas…Beijing will remain more formidable than any past challenger.
The greatest risk is not declinism: it is complacency, leading to a lack of strategic intention and a failure to catalyze action to rise to the China challenge. If anything, the United States–particularly in the era of President Trump–risks overestimating unilateral power and underestimating China’s ability to counter it.
The authors’ thesis is that in great power competition, scale and capacity matter-quantity has a quality all its own. That the U.S. cannot catch up to China’s advantage in scale by itself…its only viable path lies in coalition with others.
They warn Trump; it would be particularly unwise to go-it alone in a complex global competition. By retreating to its sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere, the United States would cede the rest of the world to a globally engaged China.
This warning, published in the Anglo-American Establishment’s premier magazine, exposes a challenge for the rules-based order that is unsolvable owing to their ideologically flawed world view. Viewing nations as victors and victims, the mighty and the less mighty, in a zero-sum fixed world, the political-financial elites wrongly perceive China as an enemy whose development must be contained, if not suppressed.
Contrary to the prejudices and false beliefs that dominate the believers of the rules-based order, the universe is not fixed; but actually, growing and expanding. Nations are composed of human beings, who are uniquely endowed with the potential for creative thought. Human-cognitive intervention in the physical universe changes the world in which we live. All nations have a shared interest in providing for the physical and spiritual needs of their citizens, who are universally indistinguishable in their common innate creative power. This understanding of the commonality of human creative thought is overlooked by the overwhelming majority of political leaders and the world’s population but is the secret to all successful foreign and domestic policies.
Courtesy caixinglobal.com
The authors insist that if Washington and its allies are going to triumph over China, they must not risk:
underestimating both the latent and actual power of the only competitor in a century whose GDP has surpassed 70% of that of the United States. On critical metrics, China has already outmatched the United States. Economically, it boasts twice the manufacturing capacity of the United States.Technologically, it dominates everything from electric vehicles to fourth-generation nuclear reactors and now produces more active patents and top-cited scientific publications annually. Militarily, it features the world’s largest Navy, bolstered by shipbuilding capacity 200 times as large as that of the United States; vastly greater missile stocks; and the world’s most advanced hypersonic capabilities
Washington is filled with seminars and papers by numerous think tanks, that believe inherent weaknesses in China will undermine their future dominance. However, Campbell and Doshi warn: Emphasizing China’s weaknesses risk understating its scale and capacity on the metrics and time frame most relevant for great power competition.
In their attempt to make sure this reality is not overlooked, they write, Accounting for purchasing power and local prices using the world bank’s methodology, although imperfect, reveals that China’s economy surpassed the US economy about a decade ago and is 25 percent larger today: roughly $30 trillion to the United States’ $24 trillion.
Courtesy of andrewbatson.com
China’s Advantage in Physical Economy
China’s phenomenal economic growth that includes lifting almost one billion Chinese out of poverty over the last two generations is the result of their commitment to expanding their manufacturing sector, and large investments infrastructure. Washington chose the opposite policy of deindustrialization, and transformed the U.S. into a service economy, over the same period of time.
The authors provide an astonishing comparison between the physical economy of China and the U.S.
…if one looks narrowly at goods rather than services, China’s productive capacity is three times as large as that of the United States–a decisive advantage in military and technological competition–and exceeds that of the next nine countries combined. In the last two decades after China joined the World Trade Organization, its share of global manufacturing quintupled to 30 percent while the US share halved to roughly 15 percent; the United Nations has estimated that by 2030 the imbalance will grow to 45 percent and 11 percent. China leads in many traditional industries–producing 20 times as much cement, 13 times as much steel, three times as many cars, and twice as much power as the United States…China is also a decade ahead of anyone else in commercializing fourth-generation nuclear technology with plans to build over 100 reactors in 20 years. The last great power to so thoroughly dominate global production was the United States, from the 1870s to the 1940s.
The authors calculate that the combined economies of Australia, Canada, India, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, the U.S., and the European Union are two to three times the size of China and produce almost half of all global manufactured products. They emphasize that unlocking the potential of this coalition should be the central task of American statecraft in this century.
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Atomic Energy Agency
Trump An Immediate Problem
The authors contend that Trump threatens the international alliances, which must be strengthened and upgraded to effectively counter China’s economic and military dominance. They write:
Trump has presented the United States’ partners with hard choices and outright threats. Many may understandably be loath to further tie themselves to Washington anytime soon… key U.S. allies are already considering declaring ‘independence’ from Washington–pursuing nuclear weapons, building new regional groupings, challenging the dollar’s role. Some, spurred by domestic reaction to U.S. pressure are contemplating moving closer to China, even at an enormous peril to their industries or security. The United States risks fracturing the free world and closing its path to scale.
Expressing the concerns of the Washington Establishment, they fear that under Trump:
If the United States fails to pursue scale with others, or retreats to the Western Hemisphere while undoing its alliances, the contest for the next century will be China’s to lose… The result will be a United States that is weaker, poorer, and less influential–and a world in which China sets the rules…Success requires going much further with greater ambition than the alliance-friendly policies of the previous Biden ministration and rejecting the outright the alienating go-it-alone ‘America First’ approach taking shape under Trump.
There is no question that President Trump has up-ended many aspects of the existing rules-based order structure. This is exemplified by pursuing peace in the three-year old Russian-Ukrainian war, freeing Russian President Putin from pariah status, and distancing the U.S. from NATO. This is of immediate concern for those advocating a U.S. led Western mobilization to scale-up economic and military capacity to prevent China from becoming the hegemon of the world.
President Trump may succeed in disrupting the accepted norms of the Western alliance, threatening the goals of the rules-based order. However, thus far he has not displayed the leadership qualities necessary to guide the world to a new paradigm of political-economic relationships among nations.
President Trump, like all of the U.S. presidents since John F Kennedy, has no knowledge of the scientific economic principles that built the U.S. into an industrial nation. He knows the word tariff but has no understanding how tariffs were actually utilized to create an indigenous manufacturing sector from thirteen agrarian based colonies.* President Trump has built hotels, gambling casinos and was known during the time I lived in New Your City, as a real estate mogul. He, like many in his cabinet and the majority of American, believes making money is synonymous with economic growth. In fact, President Trump, like his predecessors, has no concept of the importance of creating a robust manufacturing sector, or the vital necessity of replacing the dilapidated infrastructure of the U.S., to drive real economic growth.
Courtesy of prosperousamerica.org
U.S. Self-Destruction
Any politician or American, who blames China for the economic failings of the U.S., is either grossly misinformed or simply lying.
The decision by President Nixon, in August 1971, to remove the dollar from its established mooring to gold, ended the fixed exchange rate system created at Bretton Woods. This ushered in an orgy of monetary speculation over the succeeding years, creating a monetary bubble divorced from the physical economy. This ill-fated decision was the beginning of the transformation of the Western financial system into a gigantic gambling casino.
In less than a decade later, the U.S. launched the contraction of its all-important manufacturing sector. Beginning in 1979, about the time China commenced its “opening-up” strategy, the U.S. financial-political establishment adopted the insane concept of transforming America’s industrial economy into a “post-industrial society.” Opposite to China, the U.S. intentionally reduced its manufacturing-industrial component. The U.S. became a consumer society with the service sector becoming the primary employer, living off of commodities produced by cheap labor from poorer nations; otherwise known as globalization. Although some services are necessary for the functioning of society, services do not produce physical wealth. Hence, the very notion of “service industries” is a misnomer.
Examine the decline of the last forty-five years of employment in the U.S. manufacturing sector. The facts speak for themselves.
Manufacturing jobs peaked in June 1979, at 19.6 million out of 90.1 million total non-farm jobs-(22%). Two generations later, in June 2019, manufacturing employment dropped to 12.8 million out of a total 150.7 million non-farm employment (8.5%). A decline of 6.7 million jobs or 35 percent from forty years earlier. A direct result of the post-industrial utopian fantasy. From 1979 to 2019, not only did the level of manufacturing jobs decrease by over one third, but of great consequence for the economy, the percentage of manufacturing jobs to total non-farm employment decreased by over 60 percent. In analyzing the physical economy, this means that a shrinking number of manufacturing operatives were supporting an increasing number of total employed workers and within an expanding population. A recipe for disaster, which continues today. After the huge decline during the Covid-19 period, manufacturing employment recovered to only 12.9 million in December 2024, barely above the 2019 level and still 35 percent below manufacturing employment in 1979.
From 1979-2019, employment in all categories of the service sector increased. This includes employment in trade, transportation, information, utilities, professional business, and financial services.
If one adds up the federal debt, consumer debt, school debt, state debt, mortgage debt-all public and private debt-the total approaches $100 trillion in U.S. indebtedness. Presently the U.S. economy is built on a house of cards. A whopping 70% of the U.S. GDP consists of consumer spending. Without credit cards the U.S. economy would cease to exist.
This essay is a call to arms to mobilize the rules-based order to maintain their supremacy. However, to challenge China on the global stage in the years ahead requires reversing decades of self-destruction by the U.S. Do the so called wise men of the Anglo-American Establishment have the intelligence and resolve to reach back into America’s history to discover the scientific-economic principles that actually built the United States into an industrial power.** However, should the goal merely be to neutralize China, or should the U.S. endeavor to achieve a more noble mission? To wit: collaborate with China to finally end poverty and hunger in every nation on this planet, thus ensuring durable peace and security throughout the world. Through cooperation, the two economic superpowers could change the future of our civilization for generations to come. This would require an end to the rules-based order and the creation of a new financial architecture committed to global growth of the physical economy. Now is the time to begin preparing for this new paradigm.
*Nancy Spannaus, Hamilton versus Wall Street: The Core Principles of the American System of Economics
** Anton Chaitkin, Who We Are: America’s Fight for Universal Progress, from Franklin to Kennedy: Volume I -1750s to 1850s
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
U.S. President, Donald Trump and Chinese President, Xi Jinping (courtesy of sutori.com)
April 7, 2025
Unintentionally, the rules-based international order not only reveals its weakness in regard to China, but also the failure of the U.S. economy due to its intrinsic flaws. If one knows the true history of the United States, as I do, Michael Froman’s Foreign Affairs article, China Has Already Remade the International System,exposes the strategic challenge-paradox the U.S. faces today. To compete with China, the U.S. would have to reindustrialize its economy, but that would run counter to the free-trade financial predatory nature of the rules-based order. The author discloses the complete absence of knowledge by the present day financial-political elites, of the scientific principles responsible for the creation of the formerly industrialized United States
We should not lose sight of the fact that Foreign Affairs is published by the Council on Foreign Relations, the century old British American policy institute that represents the thinking of the Anglo-American Establishment in the U.S.
The American System
President Trump, like his predecessors for the last sixty years, has no understanding of how the United States was created from thirteen colonies into a powerful industrial nation. It was accomplished under the guidance of Alexander Hamilton’s principles for economic growth, which later became known as the American System of Political Economy. While tariffs were one aspect of Hamilton’s policy, they are misunderstood and misapplied today. Hamilton and his followers; Fredrich List, Henry Carey, John Quincy Adams, Abraham Lincoln, William McKinley, and Franklin Roosevelt, rejected the free trade mentality that dominates conventional economic thought today.Read my article: Nations Must Study Alexander Hamilton’s Principles of Political Economy.
Architects of the American System of the Political Economy in the 18th and 19th centuries (courtesy of schillerinstitute.com)
Froman’s argument is: China was let into the Western world order, but then violated the rules to emerge from an undeveloped peasant based economy to a robust manufacturing industrialized economic power. China’s crimes, in the eyes of the rules-based order are: not allowing the so called markets to determine the future growth of its economy. As Hamilton and other more thoughtful founding fathers knew, Adam Smith’s theories, and the so called freedom of the marketplace, were always a fraud. The marketplace was never “free,” and it never resulted in the development of an economically sovereign nation. The United States, like every other modern nation that emerged in the last four hundred years, always entailed the intervention of the state, and the practice of dirigisme (state directed credit) policies.
Historian Nancy Spannaus summarizes the core principles of the American System: That principle is the use of government-regulated credit to promote continuous scientific and technological progress through the constant upgrading of the productive powers (mental as well as physical) of the labor force. These principles conflict sharply with the laissez-faire ideas which most Americans have been told built our economic prosperity.americansystemnow.com
It is not mysterious to understand how China has transformed its economy in less than fifty years. Practitioners of the American System ofPolitical Economy have done the same, when in charge of crafting U.S. economic policy. Tariffs or protectionism have not been historically applied simply to make money or as a political weapon against other nations, as many foolishly think today. The profitability of the American System that includes tariffsflows from a full throated commitment to industrialize the nation. This would include:
Increasing the productivity of the economy and workforce
Expanding the manufacturing sector
Modernizing the agricultural sector
Issuing low-interest public credit for investments in infrastructure
Promoting advances in science and technology
Upgrading educational standards
Providing quality healthcare
Formulating a vision for great infrastructure projects
The objective of such commitments is not to make money per se. It is to raise the standard of living of the nation’s citizens, eliminate poverty and increase the longevity of life. All of which China has accomplished in approximately two generations.
Paul Volker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979-1987, ushered in the destruction of the U.S. manufacturing economy. (courtesy of jacobin.com)
U.S. Chooses Deindustrialization
In 1971, several years before China’s Deng Xiaoping launched the modernization of China, President Nixon removed the dollar from being a gold based currency. This began the process of transforming the financial system into a gigantic gambling casino, disconnected from the physical economy. Not only is the Western financial system bloated with trillions of dollars of debt, but it also contains almost two quadrillion dollars of derivatives, which are gambling bets. The truth, which Froman does not know or will not tell, is that the rules-based order is grounded on a predatory monetarist system, which exists to exploit its financial supremacy. Their objective is to obtain and maintain political power, not create wealth for the material improvement of people’s lives.
The United States and the West has been going in the wrong direction for decades, and now they are faced with the reality of what China has accomplished in becoming an industrialized and manufacturing powerhouse. The immediate conundrum for the United States is: 1) not understanding how China achieved their level of economic success; 2) not knowing how to apply or even knowledge of the principles of the American System; and 3) not having any intention of giving up their financial-predatory mindset.
The insanity of the U.S. elites, reflecting their opposition to expanding the industrial economy of the U.S., is best exemplified by their commitment to “deindustrialization” in the 1980s. Much of this was accomplished by Paul Volker, then head of the Federal Reserve, who raised interest rates to 20% in June of 1981, suffocating the economy in his pursuit of “controlled disintegration.” Volcker’s policy shut down industry, pauperized the American consumer, only helping banks, insurance companies, brokerage firms, and money managers to make higher profits.
The political-financial elites, who actually determine U.S. economic policy intended to transform the U.S. into a “post-industrial society.” Their fantasy ridden belief was that America no longer needed a strong manufacturing sector. They intended the U.S. to become a service economy and the center of the Western financial system, surviving by purchasing cheap products from around the world. They succeeded. Tourism replaced production. The U.S. has never recovered. We witnessed the effects of this dangerous policy during the Covid 19 crisis, when the US could not produce the essential products required for the health care of its citizens.
Compare China’s policy from the 1980s forward, to expand and industrialize their economy, to that of the U.S., to contract its industrial manufacturing base.
One example that typifies the drastic difference in orientation between China and the U.S. over the last two generations, is their transportation systems. China’s high-speed rail trains travel smoothly at 215 miles an hour, compared to the antiquated U.S. Amtrak trains which plod along at an average speed of 48 miles per hour. Think about the effect of that order of magnitude difference in speed has on the productivity of an economy?
China Rejected West’s Rue-Based Order
(Courtesy of statista.com)
Froman believes falsely that President Trump’s policies will succeed in rebuilding the U.S. economy. He bemoans the fact that Washington failed miserably to induce China into becoming a member of the rules-based order, refusing to submit to their free trade ideology diktats. He whines that China ignored Washington’s demands that the Chinese government stop subsidizing the production and exports of goods, which distorted the global marketplace.
He writes:
The U.S. strategy of engagement with China based on the premise that, if the United States incorporated China into the global rules-based system, China would become more like the United States…Instead of China coming to resemble the United States, the United States is behaving more like China (sic). Washington may have forged the open, liberal rules based order, but China has defined its next phase: protectionism, subsidization, restrictions on foreign investment, and industrial policy. To argue the United States must reassert its leadership to preserve the rules-based system it established is to miss the point. China’s nationalist state capitalism now dominates the international economic order.
Although Froman is acutely aware of China’s growth as an economic power in the 21st century, he has no idea how it happened. He appears clueless as to the effective policies that China employed to raise almost one billion people out of poverty, erroneously attributing the cause to globalization. China rejected the Western dictated norms of behavior, crushing the fantasies of the rules-based order that they would control China’s future.
China The New Model?
Froman continues:
The country’s [China’s] GDP grew from $34.77 billion in 1989, to $1.66 trillion by 2003, to $17.79 trillion in 2023. Hopes were high that integrating China into the rules based trading system would lead to a more peaceful and prosperous world… In 2004, China made-up 9% of the world’s manufacturing value added, leapfrogging to a massive 29% in 2023.
Over a period of 34 years, China’s GDP grew a whopping 500 times, according to the World Bank.
Froman makes the laughable analysis that President Trump is now chosen the option of becoming like China. The problem is, that neither President Trump nor any of his advisors comprehend the strategy that China adopted to build its economy. Their difficulty is compounded by their failure to comprehend or have any knowledge, of the American System of Political Economy, as practiced over centuries in the United States.
Froman points out that the proportion of the U.S. labor force employed in manufacturing has been declining for decades. However, it will not be reversed simply through President Trump’s misguided tariff policy. Froman, displaying his ignorance of American history, asserts that China has pioneered a new economic model, characterized by protectionism, constraints on foreign investment, subsidies, and industrial policy–essentially nationalist state capitalism. These policies by the government of China parallel the measures enacted by the United States when it was employing the principles embedded in the American System of Political Economy.
Froman and others, writing on behalf of the Washington Establishment, would better spend their time studying Alexander Hamilton, and his students, who understood the role of the state in nurturing industrial capitalism. They might also come to comprehend that the development of U.S. and China is not antithetical, rather both nations can expand their economies in a global system committed to economic progress.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World,” and on X@lkfreemansafrica
John Quincy Adams, (1767-1848), American Statesman, sixth President of the United States, Secretary of State for James Monroe, Diplomat, Senator, and Congressman (Courtesy phrases.org.uk)
February 14, 2022
While I do not agree with all the views of this essay below, the author raises an important historical analysis. United States was a far better nation when it was committed to the American System policies of George Washington, Alexander Hamilton, Abraham Lincoln, William McKinley, and Franklin D Roosevelt. The USA has lost its way, suffering from a ratcheting down of its culture, which has resulted in an un-American foreign policy.
By Matthew Ehret, February 10, 2022
It should be clear that the USA is in desperate need for a new security doctrine more befitting those ideals laid out in her founding documents.
These principles were elaborated upon by President Washington himself who warned the young nation of avoiding the dual evils of foreign entanglements externally and party politics domestically.
John Quincy Adams extended these ideas further still by drafting the Monroe Doctrine which he knew could only work if America ventures “not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy”.
That is to say, as long as the USA focused her efforts on fixing her own problems with a focus on internal improvements, then the Monroe Doctrine would be a blessing for both herself and the international community.
Sadly, other impulses within the US establishment of 19th century America had other ideas.
Working with a young protégé named Abraham Lincoln, Adams fought tooth and nail against the Spanish-American War of 1846 which saw a deep abuse of his doctrine.
After the last “Lincoln-republican” William McKinley was assassinated, Teddy Roosevelt’s “big stick” diplomacy launched a new 20th century trend that saw the USA extending its hegemony over weak states rather than keeping out foreign imperial intrigue as Adams had envisioned.
Another essential component of Adams’ security doctrine was shaped by his view that the international community as a whole should never be defined as a sum of parts to be dominated by a single hegemon like the British Empire had done for centuries.
Abraham Lincoln,(1809 -1865), Sixteenth President of the Unites States, leader of the Whig Party and co-founder the Republican Party, won the Civil War to save the Union (Courtesy of Wikipedia)
Adams understood the importance of seeing the world as “a community of principle” where win-win cooperation based upon the self-improvement of both parts and the whole would constantly bring renewal and creative vitality to diplomacy. It was a top-down systemic approach to policy that saw economics, security and political affairs interwoven into one unified system. This is an integrative way of thinking that has been sorely lost in the hyper theoretical, compartmentalized mode of zero-sum thinking dominant in today’s neo-liberal think tank complex.
It was for this reason, that Adams advocated the use of Hamiltonian national banking and large-scale infrastructure projects like the Erie Canal and railways throughout his years as Secretary of State and President. From this paradigm, if American interests would be extended across the continent or the world more broadly, it would not be through brute force, but rather by the uplifting of standards of living of all parties.
Over the years, we have seen small but powerful attempts to revive Adams’ overarching security doctrine.
We had seen it revived with President Ulysses Grant’s efforts to extend US industrial know-how to countries across the world during the 1870s. We saw it again with McKinley’s promotion of rail lines uniting the Americas in what was to become a new industrial renaissance for Latin America.
We saw it come alive again with FDR’s program for internationalizing the New Deal across China, India, Ibero America, the Middle East, Africa, and Russia.
Eisenhower made some noble moves towards this renewal by ending the Korean War and attempting his Crusade for Peace driven by US-Russian cooperation and advanced scientific investments into India, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Latin America. Eisenhower’s many positive plans were sadly derailed by a growing parasite in the heart of the US deep state which he addressed in his famous “military industrial complex” speech of 1960.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1882-1945), thirty-second President of the United states, only president to serve four terms, created the New Deal, formed strategic alliance with Russia and China. (Courtesy of thoughtco.com)
Kennedy’s efforts to end the Vietnam war, revive FDR’s New Deal spirit in the 1960s, while seeking entente with Russia was another noble effort to bring back Adams’ security doctrine, but his early death soon put an end to this orientation.
From 1963 to 2016, tiny piecemeal efforts to revive a sane security doctrine proved short-lived and were often undone by the more powerful pressures of unipolarist intrigue that sought nothing less than full Anglo-American hegemony in the form of a New World Order whose arrival was celebrated by the likes of Bush Sr and Kissinger in 1992.
Despite his many limitations, President Trump did make an honest endeavor to restore a sane security doctrine by focusing American interests on healing from 50+ years of self-inflicted atrophy under globalized outsourcing, militarism, and post-industrialism. Despite having to contend with an embarrassingly large and independent military-intelligence industrial complex that didn’t get less powerful after Kennedy’s murder, Trump announced the terms of his international outlook in April 2019 saying:
“Between Russia, China, and us, we’re all making hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of weapons, including nuclear, which is ridiculous.… I think it’s much better if we all got together and didn’t make these weapons … those three countries I think can come together and stop the spending and spend on things that are more productive toward long-term peace.”
This call for a US-Russia-China cooperative policy ran in tandem with the first phase of the US-China Trade deal which went into effect in January 2020 guaranteeing $350 billion of US finished goods purchased by China. None other than George Soros himself suffered a public meltdown that month when he announced that the two greatest threats to his global Open Society were: 1) Trump’s USA and 2) Xi’s China.
Joe Biden, 79 years old, forty sixth President of the United States, Will President Biden lead the US into war with Russia?(Courtesy of theverg.com
Of course, a pandemic derailed much of this momentum and the trade deal slowly broke apart. Despite these failures, the idea of returning the USA to an “American first” outlook by cleaning up its own internal messes, extracting CIA operations from the military, defunding regime change organizations like NED [National Endowment of Democracy] abroad and returning to a traditionally American policy of protective tariffs were all extremely important initiatives that Trump put into motion, and set a precedent which must be capitalized upon by nationalist forces from all parties wishing to save their republic from an oncoming calamity.
One year into Biden’s “rules based international order”, the hope for stability and peaceful cooperation among the nations of the earth has been seriously undermined. Unlike Trump, who rightfully severed US cooperation with NATO, the current neo-con heavy administration has made absorbing Ukraine and other former Soviet States into NATO a high priority going so far as to assert that Russia’s invasion is immanent should NATO forces not protect “poor, peaceful Kiev.” No mention of Nazi-ridden Azov Battalions used by Nuland and the CIA to topple the former government in 2014 is ever mentioned of course. 8500 US troops have been told to be put on high alert and 2000 US troops have been deployed to Poland and Germany. Over 19 NATO war games have been planned for 2022 which will start this month, and even China is concerned that Biden’s “NATO-of-the-Pacific” agenda is seeking to enflame Taiwanese independence and absorb the rebellious island into the US military industrial complex.
When looking at Russian “red lines” from this standpoint and holding in mind the new form of a Eurasian Manifest Destiny emerging with Putin’s Far Eastern Vision, Polar Silk Road and China’s BRI, it is a rich irony that the spirit of John Quincy Adams’ security doctrine is alive in the world. Just not in the USA.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton.
Countries of the Nile River Basin-World Bank (Courtesy of researchgate.net)
Will The U.S. Support Egypt’s Violation Of Ethiopia’s Sovereign Right to Operate The GERD?
Lawrence Freeman
June 5, 2021
Is the United States’ continued escalation of hostile policy towards Ethiopia preparing the groundwork to support Egypt’s “colonial rights” over the Nile River? As the White House and Congress threaten more sanctions against Ethiopia, their sovereign right to generate electricity for its people through the operation of the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) is being linked to the conflict in Tigray. Is the Biden administration and the Democrat controlled Congress ominously following in the footsteps of President Trump, who shockingly gave a “green light” for Egypt to bomb the GERD? This would be a grave mistake, with more disastrous consequences than the Obama’s administration’s bombing of Libya and overthrowing President Kaddafi. While U.S. foreign policy in the region is aligning itself more closely to Egypt, it continues to undermine Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s sovereign authority to prevent the Balkanization of his nation.
Sanctions Are Not For Allies
Secretary of State, Antony Blinken’s still unproven, but often repeated March 30th allegation of ethnic cleansing by the Ethiopia government in Tigray, has provided the impetus for the crescendo of group-think Congressional voices to attack Ethiopia, America’s foremost ally in the Horn of Africa. On May 23rd, Blinken intensified U.S. aggression towards Ethiopia by:
Issuing sanctions.
Cutting off funds for security and economic growth.
Pressuring multi-lateral institutions to cease funding programs in Ethiopia.
altering U.S.-Ethiopia defense accords, which have been essential in the war against terrorism and providing security for East Africa.
Addis Ababa February 5/2021 (ENA) Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed held phone conversation with United States Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken on Thursday.
Both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives support Secretary Blinken’s sanctions against Ethiopia. Sanctions are a very poor and crude tool for conducting foreign policy, and I have opposed their implementation except in the most unique cases. However, it is unheard of to apply sanctions against a long-standing ally, and it is utterly counterproductive. The government of Prime Minister Abiy should be supported in defeating the insurrectionists, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). This is contrary to calls from the U.S and United Kingdom for a cease fire and reconciliation between the Ethiopian National defense Forces (ENDF) and the TPLF.
TPLF, not the Tigrayan community, is intent on tearing apart Ethiopia, and weakening the government of Prime Minister Abiy. Ethiopia’s future existence as a sovereign nation-state depends on quelling this insurrection.
Pause for a moment, think, then ask yourself; how did President Lincoln personally conduct the war against the southern rebels? He summarily shunned all calls for peace and reconciliation, until the anti-Union, insurrectionist movement was defeated.
The Biden administration and the U.S. Congress are contributing to the potential dismemberment of the most vital nation in East Africa by sanctioning, threatening, and punishing the government of Prime Minister Abiy. If these officials, actually had any knowledge of the dynamic of ethno-nationalism in Ethiopia, they might come to realize that their actions could encourage more ethnic regions to attempt separation from the nation of Ethiopia.
Senate Recklessness Led by Bob Menendez
A new level of belligerence towards Ethiopia was on display at the May 26th, Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the conflict in Tigray. It is interesting to note that all but one of the speeches and accusations against Ethiopia were uttered by liberal Democrats. Ranking Member, Frank Risch, was the only Republican to join the anti-Ethiopian crusade.
Chairmen Bob Menendez referenced Secretary Blinken’s allegations of ethnic cleansing and other alleged crimes by the Ethiopian government. He demanded that Ambassador Godec, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, who was testifying, provide the proof that Ethiopia has “committed war crimes and crimes against humanity” in Tigray. Appallingly, the other Democrats on the committee followed Menendez in lock-step, demanding “action now” against Ethiopia.
Senator Bob Menendez (D. NJ) Chairman of Senate Foreign Relations Committee (Courtesy foreign.senate.gov)
Sarah Charles, testifying from USAID Humanitarian Assistance, further inflamed the hearings by projecting that Ethiopia will experience another “man-made famine,” reminiscent of 1985, if actions are not taken immediately. The potential for a new famine became the mantra of the senators at the hearing.
Allegations of hunger, and atrocities committed during the conflict must be fully investigated. However, to compare the current situation in Tigray to the famine of 1983-1985 that caused over one million deaths in Ethiopia, is contemptible. That famine was exacerbated by the destructive policies of Mengistu Halle Mariam, leader of the fascist-Marxist Derg. Likely unbeknownst to the uninformed senators, Mengistu, from 1976-1978 launched the “Red Terror,” murdering over half a million Ethiopians, in a genocide against his own people. To equate the famine of 1983-1985 and Mengistu’s policies to Ethiopia today and Prime Minister Abiy, is beyond reprehensible.
Senator Menendez opened the hearing by claiming that the conflict in Tigray echoes what happened in Darfur, Sudan. I travelled to Sudan many times from 1996 to 2012, including two tours of Darfur. Between that and my own extensive research, I am very familiar with Sudan and its history. I can assert unequivocally that there is no resemblance between Darfur, Sudan, and Tigray, Ethiopia.
Tragically, the behavior by the U.S. Congress, is shameful and reflects an acute superficiality in understanding the complex history of Ethiopia.
Overturn Geo-Political Thinking
While the U.S., led by Secretary Blinken, is reversing decades of friendship between Ethiopia and America, and endangering the Horn of Africa, the Biden administration is enhancing its rapport with Egypt.
On May 26th, while the Senate was ratcheting up the pressure on Ethiopia, Secretary Blinken was in Cairo conveying:
“President Biden’s appreciation to President Sisi for Egypt’s critical mediation efforts in support of a cease fire between Israel and Hamas…”
“The Secretary affirmed the strong strategic partnership between the United States and Egypt, and President Biden’s commitment to this relationship. He reiterated the United States’ commitment to Egypt’s water security and to the urgent resumption of substantive and results oriented negotiations under the leadership of the African Union to resolve the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).”
The sovereign right of Ethiopia to fill and operate the GERD for the general welfare of its citizens has become linked to the conditions in Tigray.
Democrat Senator Mendez, at the hearing ostensibly on Tigray, made the same veiled threat on the GERD as President Trump, who infamously suggested that Egypt might try to blow-up the GERD. Mendez blurted out, that Egypt has told him more than once, “if the GERD issue is not dealt with in a way that assures their water needs…they will do what is necessary…They have red lines…”
Ethiopia and its seven neighboring countries
On May 27, Egyptian President Sisi, traveled to Djibouti, whose port provides access to the Gulf of Eden and Indian Ocean for its neighbor and major trading partner, Ethiopia. This was the first visit ever of an Egyptian head of state to Djibouti. According to African Intelligence, the two leaders discussed new security relations between their nations. African Intelligence further reports that Egypt’s defense minister and army chief of staff, who also visited Djibouti, “would like to see the creation of an Egyptian base in Djibouti not far from the Ethiopian border.”
At his news conference in Djibouti, President Sisi said:
“I stressed Egypt’s rejection of any attempt to impose a fait accompli through unilateral measures that disregard the interests and rights of the two downstream countries.”
Egypt has made repeated military threats against Ethiopia, has formed a military alliance with Sudan, and last month, carried out joint military exercises with Sudan labeled “Guardians of the Nile”.
Since Egypt is the second largest recipient of U.S. aid next to Israel, it would not be difficult for the U.S. to convince Egypt to stand down.
According to a knowledgeable expert on the region, the Biden administration is preparing to relocate the hub of its anti-terrorism deployment in the Horn of Africa, from Ethiopia to Kenya. The U.S. is trying to persuade Gulf nations, who support Ethiopia, to leverage their relationship in an effort to pressure Ethiopia to abandon its commitment to the GERD.
President Biden may or may not be aware of the implications of his decision to undermine Prime Minister Abiy’s government and support Egypt in their brinkmanship with Ethiopia regarding the GERD. His administration, filled with personnel from the Obama and Clinton presidencies, is following the same warped geo-political doctrine of his predecessors. Rather than responding to the fixed contours of the contentiousness surrounding the GERD, a true statesman would desire to shift the discussion to a higher level of potential resolution. Instead, the U.S., dominated by geo-politics, is fixated on seeking partners, who serve their narrow immediate interests, such as Egypt’s role in mitigating the Israel-Palestine crisis.
The GERD will actually help both Egypt and Sudan by regulating the Nile, preventing deadly floods, reducing evaporation, and providing a water bank to draw on in emergencies. However, the GERD is not even the fundamental cause of Egypt’s water problem, as Yaniv Cohenexplains: Egypt has a water problem and it’s not only the GERD
Eskom’s Koeberg nuclear power station today turned on its temporary mobile groundwater desalination plant, which will ease the pressure on the City of Cape Town’s water supply. Courtesy esi-africa.com)
The real issue concerning the Nile River is strategic; the Nile does not have enough water to provide for the hundreds of millions of Africans living in the nations of the Nile Basin.
For the economic growth and well being of the nations of the Nile Basin, more water is needed than the Nile can deliver. The equivalent of a second Nile has to be created by human beings. This is the discussion that should take place among the Nile Basin nations and the larger international communities. It requires creative and visionary thinking, outside of the box, not confined to geo-politics. To alleviate nations from quarreling over a limited supply of Nile water, let us be bold in our imagination. Instead, conceive of the New Nile Project by constructing nuclear powered desalination plants along the Mediterranean and Red Sea to create large amounts of new potable water. These nuclear plants in additional to efficient desalination, and supplying abundant energy, would become nuplexes– manufacturing hubs for industrial and agricultural development.
Some addicted to the narrow thinking of geo-politics today, will object and say it cannot be done, it will take too long and cost too much. To those naysayers, I would respond by asking, is it better to have water wars among emerging nations that are struggling to feed their people laden by poverty? As populations expand, and economies grow, more water will be required. Why not use the urgency of resolving today’s combative dispute over the filling of the GERD, to prod our lazy minds to create a solution for the future of the Nile Basin? Overcoming all the many engineering and scientific impediments to achieve our New Nile Project will be challenging, but this is the very reason we human beings were put here on earth.
President Lincoln delivering his Second Inaugural Address March 4, 1865. (courtesy hisotyplace.com)
A Just End To A New Beginning
The fighting in Tigray, the ancient birthplace of Ethiopia, must come to end as soon as possible to prevent the loss of more lives and further suffering. This laceration in the fabric of Ethiopian society should be healed, and not allowed to propagate. Following the government’s safeguarding of the Tigray region, an all-out mobilization must be launched, with vigorous international support, to rebuild the province, upgrading economic conditions to guarantee that every person living in Tigray, a productive and dignified life.
When the conflict in Tigray is concluded, it would be appropriate for Prime Minister Abiy to emulate the spirit of President Lincoln’s Second Inaugural Address. It was delivered on March 4, 1865, almost four years after the war began, which killed hundreds of thousands of Americans, and six weeks before his enemies assassinated him. After President Lincoln affirms his commitment to defeat the southern rebels at all costs, he compassionately pleads for peace.
“With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation’s wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.”
Let Prime Minister Abiy use this overture as a prelude to lead a healthy dialogue with the Ethiopian people; to unite the nation around the preeminence of an Ethiopian identity, one that supersedes ethnicity. Reformulation of the Ethiopian Constitution of 1995 to emphasize Ethiopian citizenship, which transcends ethno-regionalism, should follow.
It is in the shared, common, and self-interest of all Ethiopians to participate in the development of their society and increase the wealth of their economy for the benefit of themselves and their posterity. With the near future generation of 6,200 megawatts of electricity from the GERD, Ethiopia will bring light and prosperity to all its citizens. This is cause for all Ethiopians to join together in joyous celebration.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
