The Legacy & Vision of The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

July 24, 2025July 24, 2025 Lawrence Blue Nile, Egypt, electricity, Ethiopia, GERD, Nile River, Sudan

Lawrence Freeman standing next to Eng. Ephrem Kiden on his right, and Tesfahun Gobezay, State Min of Communications, on his left in May 2025, in front of the nearly completed GERD

July 24, 2025

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: A Legacy of Shared Vision & Unified Purpose of Four Ethiopian Leaders

By Dr Birhanu Lenjiso, Oromiya, Ethiopia

1. Introduction

The Nile River, the world’s longest river stretching over 6,650 kilometers, is a lifeline for eleven riparian states, with Ethiopia contributing approximately 85% of its waters through the Blue Nile and other tributaries. Despite this significant contribution, Ethiopia’s access to Nile waters has been curtailed by colonial-era agreements, notably the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, which allocated the majority of Nile waters to Egypt and Sudan while sidelining upstream states like Ethiopia. The treaties that perpetuated an inequitable status quo, prompted Ethiopia to pursue the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as a means to reclaim its rightful share of the Nile’s resources.

Initiated in 2011, the GERD is a 5,150 megawatt MW hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile, near the Ethiopian-Sudanese border. Beyond its technical specifications, the GERD embodies Ethiopia’s aspirations for energy security, economic development, and regional influence. The project’s realization is a testament to the vision and resilience of four Ethiopian leaders: Emperor Haile Selassie, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Each leader navigated unique challenges, financial constraints, political instability, and diplomatic pressures, to advance the GERD, transforming it into a symbol of Ethiopian unity, sovereignty, and prosperity.

*The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under construction*

This article examines the historical context of Nile water usage, the pivotal roles of four Ethiopian leaders in advancing the GERD, and the dam’s implications for Ethiopia’s unity, sovereignty, and prosperity. The article underscores how the GERD transcends its role as a hydroelectric project to embody Ethiopia’s resilience, collective purpose, and vision for a prosperous future.

2. Historical Context: Nile Water Use and Ethiopia’s Marginalization

The Nile River’s geopolitics have long been shaped by colonial powers, whose treaties favored downstream states at the expense of upstream contributors like Ethiopia. The 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty granted Egypt veto power over upstream Nile projects, while the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement allocated 55.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of water annually to Egypt and 18.5 bcm to Sudan, leaving no share for Ethiopia despite its role as the primary source of Nile waters. These agreements, negotiated without Ethiopia’s participation, entrenched a legacy of inequity.

Egypt’s historical dominance over the Nile was not solely diplomatic. Reports suggest Egypt employed covert strategies to maintain control, including leveraging influence within the Ethiopian Orthodox Church to undermine work culture, funding opposition groups, and sponsoring regional conflicts to destabilize Ethiopia. These tactics are aimed to prevent Ethiopia from pursuing large-scale projects on the Nile and to reinforce Egypt’s monopoly over the river’s resources.

Ethiopia’s marginalization persisted through much of the 20th century, exacerbated by internal challenges such as civil wars, famines, and political instability. Despite these obstacles, Ethiopian leaders recognized the Nile’s potential to drive national development. The GERD, envisioned as a transformative project, emerged from decades of aspiration to harness the Blue Nile for hydroelectric power, irrigation, and economic growth.

3. The Contribution of the Four Leaders to the GERD

The GERD’s journey spans over half a century, with four Ethiopian leaders playing critical roles in its conceptualization, initiation, and completion. Their contributions reflect a shared vision and unity of purpose, overcoming formidable domestic and international challenges.

3.1 Emperor Haileselassie (1930–1974): Laying the Foundation

Emperor Haileselassie, Ethiopia’s longest-serving leader, recognized the strategic importance of the Blue Nile for Ethiopia’s development. During his reign, marked by relative stability compared to later periods, Haileselassie sought to modernize Ethiopia and assert its sovereignty over its natural resources. In the 1950s, he turned to the United States for technical expertise, commissioning the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to conduct a comprehensive study of the Blue Nile. In 1964, the Bureau proposed a massive dam at the Guba site, near the Ethiopian-Sudanese border, with the potential to generate significant hydroelectric power and support irrigation.

*Emperor Haileselassie with foreign engineers initiating hydroelectric dams*

Despite this visionary step, Haileselassie’s ambitions were thwarted by financial constraints and geopolitical pressures. Ethiopia lacked the resources to fund such a mega-project, and Egypt’s opposition, backed by its regional influence, posed a significant barrier. Therefore, the Emperor was forced to shelf the study, but he remained steadfast in his belief that the dam would one day be built. He preserved the U.S. design, entrusting it to future generations with the conviction that Ethiopia’s “children” would fulfill his vision. The downfall of the Emperor in 1974, followed by decades of civil war and political turmoil under the Derg regime, but his foresight laid the intellectual and technical groundwork for the GERD.

3.2 Prime Minister Meles Zenawi (1995–2012) Revived the Dream

The dream of the dam lay dormant on the shelf through decades of civil war and political instability until Prime Minister Meles Zenawi revived it. In 2011, Meles laid the cornerstone for the GERD, announcing an ambitious project based on a modified version of the 1964 U.S. design. With a projected capacity of 5,150 MW, the GERD aimed to address Ethiopia’s chronic energy shortages, power industrialization, and position Ethiopia as a regional energy hub.

*Ethiopian Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi*

Meles’s leadership was characterized by bold decision-making and a commitment to self-reliance. To circumvent reliance on external funding, which could invite foreign interference, Meles mobilized domestic resources through public contributions, bond sales, and government reallocations. Therefore, GERD is fully financed by the Ethiopian people and government. Meles also navigated Egypt’s vocal opposition, which included diplomatic protests and threats of military action. His strategic foresight ensured the project’s momentum, but his untimely death in 2012 left its future uncertain.

3.3 Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn (2012–2018) Sustained the Momentum

Following Meles’s death, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn inherited the GERD amid a challenging political and economic landscape. Hailemariam faced internal dissent, economic pressures, and intensified diplomatic tensions with Egypt and Sudan. Despite these obstacles, he sustained the project’s progress through leadership and diplomatic engagement, including the 2015 Declaration of Principles, signed by Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan, which committed to cooperation and equitable use of Nile waters.

*Egyptian* *President, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, Sudanese President, Omar Al-Bashir, Ethiopian Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn*

Hailemariam’s tenure saw significant construction milestones, including the completion of key structural components. His ability to maintain national support for the GERD, despite domestic unrest and external pressures, underscored the project’s role as a unifying force. Hailemariam’s steady leadership ensured that the GERD remained a national priority, paving the way for its completion under his successor.

3.4 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (2018–Present) Brought the Vision to Fruition

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, amid a period of political reform and social transformation. Recognizing the GERD’s significance as a symbol of Ethiopian sovereignty and development, Abiy brought renewed energy to the project. His hands-on approach included regular site visits, public campaigns to sustain national support, and efforts to secure additional funding. Under Abiy’s leadership, the GERD reached critical milestones, including the first and second fillings of the reservoir in 2020 and 2021, respectively, and the commencement of power generation in 2022.

Abiy faced heightened diplomatic challenges, as Egypt escalated its objections through international forums such as the African Union, the United Nations, and the Arab League, while seeking mediation from the United States and the European Union. Despite accusations of unilateralism and threats of conflict, Abiy’s administration navigated these tensions through a combination of diplomacy and resolve, emphasizing Ethiopia’s right to develop its resources. The GERD’s completion under Abiy’s leadership marked a historic achievement, reinforcing Ethiopia’s sovereignty and regional influence.

4. The Implications of GERD for Ethiopian Unity, Sovereignty, and Prosperity

The GERD transcends its role as a hydroelectric dam, embodying Ethiopia’s aspirations for unity, sovereignty, and prosperity. Its implications are multifaceted, reshaping Ethiopia’s national identity and regional standing.

4.1 Unity

The GERD has galvanized Ethiopian society, fostering a sense of collective purpose across ethnic, religious, and political divides. Public contributions to the project, including bond purchases and grassroots fundraising, reflect widespread national ownership. The dam’s significance as a symbol of resilience and self-reliance has unified Ethiopians, particularly during periods of political instability. Leaders leveraged the GERD to rally public support, reinforcing its role as a unifying national project.

4.2 Sovereignty

By asserting control over the Blue Nile, the GERD challenges the historical inequities imposed by the outdated colonial treaties. Ethiopia’s decision to self-finance the project, despite international opposition, underscores its commitment to sovereignty and autonomy. The dam’s completion signals Ethiopia’s emergence as a regional power, capable of shaping Nile geopolitics and advocating for equitable resource sharing among riparian states.

4.3 Prosperity

The GERD promises transformative economic benefits, including energy security, industrialization, and regional energy exports. With a capacity of 5,150 MW, the dam will address Ethiopia’s energy deficit, powering homes, industries, and infrastructure. Its potential to generate revenue through electricity exports to neighboring countries positions Ethiopia as a regional energy hub, fostering economic growth and poverty reduction. The dam also supports agricultural development through regulated water flows, enhancing food security and rural livelihoods.

5. Challenges and Future Prospects

Despite its achievements, the GERD remains a focal point of regional tensions. Egypt’s concerns about water security necessitate ongoing diplomatic efforts to ensure cooperation. The African Union-led negotiations, initiated under Abiy’s leadership, offer a framework for resolving disputes and promoting equitable Nile water use. Ethiopia’s commitment to the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), which seeks to replace colonial treaties with a fair allocation system, underscores its role as a leader in regional water governance.

Looking ahead, the GERD’s success will depend on Ethiopia’s ability to manage domestic and international challenges. Sustaining national unity, addressing environmental concerns, and fostering regional cooperation will be critical to maximizing the dam’s benefits. The GERD’s legacy will likely inspire other upstream Nile states to pursue similar projects, reshaping the geopolitics of the Nile Basin.

6. Conclusion

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam stands as a testament to Ethiopia’s enduring vision for equitable access to the Nile River and its transformative potential for national development. From Emperor Haileselassie’s foundational efforts to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s completion of the project, the GERD reflects the shared vision and unity of purpose among four Ethiopian leaders. Their contributions, spanning decades of adversity, have transformed the GERD into a symbol of Ethiopian unity, sovereignty, and prosperity. As Ethiopia navigates the challenges and opportunities of the GERD, the dam’s legacy will continue to shape the nation’s identity and its role in the Nile Basin, heralding a new era of prosperity and regional cooperation.

Read below my earlier posts on the GERD:

͏Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X @lkfreemansafrica

Trump Exposes His Ignorance of Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam

July 18, 2025July 18, 2025 Lawrence Abiy Ahmed, Dr Birhanu, Egypt, Ethiopia, GERD, Nile River, Preesident Trump, Sudan, US

*The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will be officially inaugurated by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, in September*.

July 18, 2024

Please read below the response by my colleague and friend, Dr Birhanu, to President Trump’s unthoughtful remarks on Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Re: “Trump says US ‘working on’ resolving Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute

by Dr. Birhanu Lenjiso, Oromiya, Ethiopia

On July 15, 2025, Mada Masr published an article titled “Trump Says US ‘working on’ resolving Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute,” that has several points that call for scrutiny and clarification, particularly about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and its financing.

First, the article states that U.S. President Donald Trump described the GERD dispute as “a big problem” that the U.S. is “working on” resolving, and it highlights Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s appreciation for Trump’s commitment to a “fair agreement” between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. It also references a 2019 meeting hosted by Trump with representatives from these countries to discuss the dispute.

While Trump’s remarks signal U.S. interest in mediating the GERD dispute, the article overstates the significance of his involvement by framing it as a novel or decisive intervention. The GERD dispute, ongoing since 2011, has seen multiple rounds of negotiations mediated by various parties, including the African Union and the United States, with limited success. Trump’s previous efforts during his first term yielded no binding agreement, as Ethiopia and Sudan withdrew from a draft agreement in 2020, frustrating U.S. mediation attempts. The article does not contextualize this history adequately, presenting Trump’s recent statements as a fresh initiative without acknowledging the complexity and entrenched positions of the parties involved.

Furthermore, the article does not critically examine Trump’s motives or the feasibility of his proposed mediation. Commentators with both from US and Ethiopian side shows skepticism about U.S. involvement, noting that Trump’s comments may be tied to his self-image as a global dealmaker rather than a deep understanding of the issue. The article’s optimistic tone about U.S. mediation overlooks Ethiopia’s insistence on sovereignty over the dam and Egypt’s rigid stance on water rights, which have repeatedly stalled talks.

Second, the article indirectly references Trump’s claim, made during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, that the U.S. “financed” the GERD, which he described as stopping the flow of water into the Nile River.

The assertion that the U.S. funded the GERD is baseless and widely disputed. The Ethiopian government has consistently said that the GERD, a $4 billion project, is entirely financed domestically through bonds, public contributions, and other local resources. The Public Coordination Office for the GERD in Addis Ababa has explicitly rejected Trump’s claim, and no credible evidence supports U.S. financial involvement. The article does not challenge or fact-check this claim, allowing a significant inaccuracy to persist without scrutiny. By not addressing Ethiopia’s self-financing efforts, which were undertaken to avoid external influence and requirements to seek approval from downstream countries, the article perpetuates a misleading narrative, more than misinforming its audiences.

Moreover, Trump’s claim that the GERD “stops the flow of water” to the Nile is an oversimplification. The dam is designed primarily for hydroelectric power, not to block water flow entirely, and Ethiopia has maintained that it will not significantly harm downstream countries. Studies and diplomatic assurances, suggest that the GERD’s operation, if managed cooperatively, does not inherently threaten Egypt’s water security. The article’s uncritical repetition of Trump’s statement risks amplifying a skewed perspective that aligns with Egypt’s concerns without acknowledging Ethiopia’s position or technical realities.

Third, the article emphasizes Egypt’s “existential concerns” over water security, noting that the GERD imposes a “fait accompli” on downstream countries, potentially compromising their access to water or forcing unfavorable resource-sharing agreements. It cites an Egyptian government source outlining three non-negotiable terms: a minimum annual water release, legally binding mitigation measures, and no permanent concession on water rights.

While Egypt’s reliance on the Nile for over 97% of its water needs is undeniable, the article frames the GERD as an inherent threat without sufficiently exploring Ethiopia’s perspective or the dam’s actual impact. Ethiopia has argued that the GERD, located on the Blue Nile, will regulate water flow, and benefit downstream countries by reducing flooding and providing electricity, which could support regional development. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has emphasized “shared progress” and assured that the dam’s operation will not harm Egypt or Sudan. The article does not mention that recent fillings of the dam have not significantly disrupted Nile flows, partly due to abundant rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands.

*Lawrence Freeman with Dr Birhanu Lenjiso*

The article also omits the historical context of Nile water disputes, particularly the 1929 and 1959 agreements, which Egypt and Sudan cite as guaranteeing their water shares, but which Ethiopia rejects as colonial-era impositions that exclude its rights as an upstream nation. By focusing solely on Egypt’s concerns, the article presents a one-sided view, ignoring Ethiopia’s legitimate need for energy development, with over 60% of its population lacking electricity access. The claim of a “fait accompli” oversimplifies the issue, as Ethiopia has engaged in negotiations, albeit with disagreements over terms, and the African Union has been a primary mediator.

Fourth, the article suggests that Trump’s comments align with Egypt’s position, as shown by al-Sisi’s praise and Egypt’s appreciation of Trump’s recognition of the Nile as a “source of life.” It also notes that Trump’s remarks were made in the context of Egypt’s long-standing concerns about the GERD.

While Trump’s statements appear sympathetic to Egypt’s water security concerns, the article does not critically assess whether this reflects a consistent U.S. policy or merely Trump’s position. During his first term, Trump indeed leaned toward Egypt, even suggesting in 2020 that Egypt could “blow up” the dam, a statement that heightened tensions. However, his recent comments lack specificity on how the U.S. would mediate or what a “fair agreement” entails, making the article’s portrayal of his stance overly optimistic. But comments on the issue so far highlight skepticism about Trump’s understanding of the issue, with some suggesting that the remarks lack a coherent strategy.

Additionally, the article does not address Sudan’s role or perspective, despite Sudan being a key stakeholder in the dispute. Sudan has expressed concerns about the GERD’s safety and water flow but has also acknowledged potential benefits, such as flood control and cheaper electricity. By focusing primarily on Egypt’s approval of Trump’s remarks, the article sidelines the tripartite nature of the negotiations and the need for a balanced solution.

In conclusion, the Mada Masr article presents an incomplete and partially misleading account of the GERD dispute and Trump’s involvement. It fails to challenge Trump’s claim of U.S. financing, overemphasizes Egypt’s perspective without adequately addressing Ethiopia’s position, and portrays U.S. mediation as a promising development without acknowledging the historical complexities and failures of past negotiations. A more balanced report would have critically examined Trump’s claims, included Ethiopia’s and Sudan’s viewpoints, and highlighted the technical and diplomatic nuances of the GERD’s impact on Nile water flows. The article’s reliance on Egyptian sources and lack of skepticism toward Trump’s statements contribute to a narrative that risks misinforming readers about this complex regional issue.

Note: https://www.madamasr.com/en/2025/07/15/news/u/trump-says-us-working-on-resolving-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-dispute/

Read my earlier Post: Completed Ethiopia Dam-GERD Can Power East African Nations

New Book on Ethiopia’s GERD: Historical Battle of the Nile-Colonialism vs Development

May 7, 2023May 7, 2023 Lawrence Abbay River, Africa, Blue Nile Basin, British colonialism, Dereje Tessema, Egypt, electricity, Ethiopia, GERD, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Haile Selassie, Infrastructure, Nile River, Sudan, US

Lawrence Freeman, delivering the opening presentation at the launch of a new book on the GERD, written by Dereje Tessema.

May 7, 2023

Below are my remarks at the book launch at Georgetown University, Washington, DC on April 29, 2023

We discussed the contribution by author Dereje Tessema, in his new I unique book: How This Happened: Demystifying The Nile, History and Events Leading to the Realization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (amazon.com/HOW-this-HAPPENED-Demystifying-Realization)

In my brief presentation (see below), as the lead presenter, I reviwed the history of the battle in the Nile Basin of colonialism versus economic development, and the positive role of the United States in identifying the GERD, sixty years ago.

Greetings!

It is an honor to be here with all these distinguished panelists and for me to speak on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam–The GERD. Here we are, discussing this new fascinating book on the GERD, 12 years after the first brick was laid by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi on April 11, 2011.

I had the wonderful opportunity to visit the GERD and get a tour by the deputy project manager in December of 2022 on my last visit to Ethiopia.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under constrcution

It was a magnificent sight. You have this huge scientific engineering marvel–a great infrastructure project built between two mountains over the Blue Nile-the Abbay River. The water has been flowing through this area into the White Nile from lake Tana for approximately 5 million years. And The Ethiopians, to their credit, realized that they can make this lazy river do some actual work. They understood that the Abby could be exploited for the benefit of humankind by making this unproductive river produce electricity for Africa. Electricity, in my view, as a physical economist, is the most vital category of hard infrastructure that Africa is lacking. Africans suffer every day from a gross deficiency in electricity. The Ethiopians by 2025, when all 11 turbines are projected to be functioning, will add 5,150 megawatts of electricity to their grid. This will be the biggest new injection of electricity on the African continent.

For me it was exceptionally exciting to visit the GERD. Because it confirmed to me: that humankind, through the exercise of our uniquely human creative imagination, intervenes upon the physical universe, to improve the conditions of life for us human beings. This understanding of human creativity is the underpinning of my philosophy about the universe and the foundation of my economic thinking.

The Ethiopian people and successive Ethiopian governments should be congratulated for self-funding and constructing the GERD. It does not just benefit Ethiopia, but the GERD enhances the entire Nile Basin, including Egypt and Sudan.

One of the most interesting features in this book, among many, is the several hundred year history of the White and Blue Nile River Basins. The key issue which I believe characterizes this 300 year conflict is: the right to utilize the resource of the Blue Nile for the development of the Ethiopian nation and its people. This history is relevant to the efforts today, by some, to prevent the dam from reaching its full productivity; though I am convinced the anti-GERD campaign will not be successful.

Colonial Mentality Over the Nile

As part of their imperialist policy, the British were obsessed with the Nile River Basin, as part of their plans to control indirectly or directly the entire eastern spine of Africa from Egypt to South Africa. Through their control of Egypt, nominally part of the Ottoman Empire, first through Pasha Muhammad Ali and then later his nephew, Khedive Ismail, and finally the outright conquering of Egypt militarily at the end of the 1800s, the British believed that they owned the Nile. Though several battles were waged by the Egyptians against Ethiopia, the Egyptians like the Italians years later at Adwa, were unable to militarily defeat and conquer Ethiopia. The British in their attempt to be the overlord of the entire Nile River Basin, were intent not to allow Ethiopia to develop its own productive capabilities, which most definitely would involve utilizing the water from Lake Tana.

The author, Dereje Tessema, presenting his conception and motivation for wrting his book: How This Happened: Demystifying The Nile, History and Events Leading to the Realization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) .

There were over two dozen treaties and official diplomatic exchanges from 1891 to 2015 concerning the Nile that affected Ethiopia. I will highlight only a few.

As early as the 1891 protocol between the United Kingdom and Italy, Britain made very clear that it would recognize Italy’s control of the northern part of Ethiopia, which is now Eritrea, in return, the Italian government would agree not to obstruct the flow of water from the Atbara River that is one of the three main tributaries, that supply 85% of the water into the White Nile. In 1899 the British with the Egyptians created the Anglo Egyptian Condominium ,which effectively allowed the British through Egypt to govern Sudan. This was another step in the process of the British attempt to have control over the entire Nile River system. It is interesting to note that it was also in 1899 that the British began the construction of the Aswan Low Dam that was completed in 1902. This of course was replaced several decades later by the larger High Aswan Dam.

In the 1902 Anglo Ethiopia Treaty to delineate the borders between Sudan and Ethiopia, the British included a demand that Emperor Menelik II, could not obstruct the flow of any water into the Nile by building anything across the Blue Nile, Lake Tana, or the Sobat River. The British intended never to allow Ethiopia to utilize the Blue Nile for the benefit of its people. The British did not want an independent, developing nation disrupting their plans for the Nile Basin. Rather, they envisioned, utilizing Lake Tana to as a large rain fed storage area, releasing water during the dry season for the agriculture-irrigation schemes in the downstream nations of Egypt and Sudan.

In the 1920s, prior to Mussolini’s invasion in 1935, Britain made clear to the Italians that it would be happy to have Lake Tana controlled-protected from Ethiopia’s utilization by a nation friendly to Britain.

The 1929 Water Agreement between the British, Egypt and Sudan, codified Egypt’s so called natural and historical rights to the Nile. The agreement allocated 48 billion cubic meters of Nile water to Egypt and 4 billion to Sudan–less than 1% of the total 52bcm. The agreement also gave Egypt the right to prevent construction of any project on the Nile that would reduce the flow of the Nile water to Egypt. Ethiopia was not part of this agreement and was not in attendance even though it was an independent sovereign nation that provided the majority of Nile water joining the White Nile under the Khartoum- Omdurman bridge.

Ethiopian Ambassador, Seleshi Bekele, speaking at the book launch. To his right, is retired US Ambassador, David Shinn.

The 1959 Water Agreement between the Republics of Sudan and Egypt increased the water allocations for both countries. Egypt would now receive 55.5 billion cubic meters of water, and Sudan would receive 18.5 bcm. The agreement also allowed Egypt to construct the Aswan High Dam and for Sudan to construct the Rosaries dam, on the Blue Nile, which I visited many years ago. This new water agreement also stipulated again that no other construction could be built on the Nile, implicitly the Blue Nile as well. Essentially this agreement gave Egypt and Sudan veto power against the right of Ethiopia to erect its own dam on its own sovereign territory. Again, Ethiopia was not a participant to this agreement. To my knowledge, Ethiopia has not been a party to any official water agreement with Sudan and Egypt regarding the rights to develop the Blue Nile Basin, even during the negotiations in the Trump administration.

Potential of Blue Nile Basin

Two years before the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Water agreement, Ethiopia officially severed itself from the colonial mentality regarding the Nile, by informing Egypt, on September 23, 1957, that Ethiopia will utilize it water resources for irrigation and hydropower. Quoting the diplomatic note (Part I, Chapter 3, page 50):

Ethiopia has the right and obligation to exploit its water resources for the benefit of its present and future generations of its citizens and must, therefore reassert and reserve now and for the future, the right to take all the measures in respect of its water resources.

Reflecting the better period of United States, when our foreign policy reflected our commitment for development in Africa, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and the U.S. Department of the Interior, signed an agreement with the Ethiopian government to investigate the land and water resources of the Blue Nile River Basin. The project began in 1958, was completed in 1963, and its findings were published in 1964. The report was seven volumes and referred to as the Nile Report. Quoting Dereje (page 54 of the same chapter of his book):

The author signing his new book at the conclusion of the event.

The purpose of this program was to: a) investigate the land and water resources of the Blue Nile River Basin; b) assist in the establishment of an appropriate administrative and engineering organization within the Imperial Ethiopian Government; and c) train Ethiopian personnel in the various disciplines as appropriate.

The other major study of the Blue Nile Basin, was The Abbay River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan, initiated in 1994 and completed in 1998. Dereje documents that in the twentieth century there have been more than 18 feasibility studies of the Nile and Blue Nile River Basin, investigating potential projects for irrigation and hydropower.

The 1957-1964 Nile Report examined the potential of 32 irrigation and energy projects in the Blue Nile River Basin, which are listed in this book on pages 259-260. Four potential dam sites were proposed that could provide sufficient electrical power to satisfy domestic consumption and export to other nations in East Africa. The study identified four potential hydropower projects described on pages 262-266. One of the four hydro-power sites, that the Nile Report called the Border Dam, is today, known as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

The author celebrating with his family.

In Conclusion

As we are assembled here today discussing the contribution of this new treatise on the GERD by Dereje , we should remember what Emperor Haile Selassie said in the 1960s, when he was unable to secure funding for the various irrigation and hydropower projects identified in the 1957-1964 Nile Report. (Quoting from Part V, Chapter 17, page 334): Emperor Selassie said:

We don’t have the capacity to build a dam on the Abbay at this time. Friendly countries will not support this endeavor for fear of antagonizing Egypt. However, the future generations will build it using its own resources. Keep the study safe.

We are less than two years away from celebrating the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with GERD DAY, my proposal for a new national Ethiopian holiday.

Read my ealier post:

GERD: Utilizing the Blue Nile to Create Energy for Development in Ethiopia & The Horn of Africa

Join Me Saturday-Definitive Book on Ethiopia’s GERD, and the Blue & White Nile River Basins

April 27, 2023April 27, 2023 Lawrence Africa, Blue Nile, Egypt, electricity, Ethiopia, GERD, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Infrastructure, Sudan, US, White Nile

Read my earlier posts below:

New Treatise on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Linking the History of the White & Blue Nile River Basins

U.S. Should Make the Right Decision: Support Economic Reconstruction of Ethiopia & GERD Completion

Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton

New Treatise on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Linking the History of the White & Blue Nile River Basins

April 14, 2023April 14, 2023 Lawrence Blue Nile, Egypt, electricity, Ethiopia, GERD, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Lake Tana, Sudan, White Nile

I will be a featured speaker, along with many specialists, at this book launch on April 29, at Georgetown University, in Washington, D.C. This new book is treasure trove of information regarding the history, science, and geography related to the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The GERD is not only a game changer for Ethiopia, but also for the whole African continent. It demonstrates that African nations do not have to remain economically backward and underdeveloped. That they can make sovereign decisions to pursue policies for the development of their nation that will benefit their people.

***SAVE THIS DATE***

Click on link below for schedule and speakers’ profiles

April 29 Book Lunch Event

GERD: Utilizing the Blue Nile to Create Energy for Development in Ethiopia & The Horn of Africa

January 16, 2023February 7, 2023 Lawrence Africa, Blue Nile, creativity, development, electricity, Ethiopia, GERD, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Horn of Africa, Infrastructure, Nile Basin, nuclear energy, Sudan

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam-GERD, built on Ethiopia’s Blue Nile River will be completed in 2025 with an installed capacity to generate 5,150 megawatts of electricity. This will not only provide increased access of electricity to the Ethiopian population, but supply much needed energy to the nations of the Horn of Africa as well.

January 16, 2023

On December 19, 2022, I was given a VIP tour of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, known as the GERD. It was an exciting and joyful experience for me to examine this massive infrastructure project constructed by an emerging sub-Saharan African nation. It is proof that humankind is capable, nay obliged, to intervene upon the physical universe for the betterment of the human race i.e., progress for our civilization. The GERD, when completed, will generate from its thirteen turbines a total of 5,150 megawatts (MW) of electricity for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. The GERD is a dam for development. Already, with just 750 MW being produced from two of the GERD’s functioning turbines, Ethiopia is already exporting electricity to Djibouti, Kenya, and Sudan. Additionally, Ethiopia has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with South Sudan to sell electricity.

Upon completion, the GERD will be the largest hydro-electric dam on the African continent and the seventh largest in the world. For this accomplishment, the Ethiopian people and their leadership should be praised for initiating such a grand endeavor over a decade ago, that is today contributing to the transformation of the African continent.

*The GERD left, author being briefed the Deputy Project Manager*

A Source of Pride

The GERD is located at the Guba district in the Benishangul-Gumuz regional state of Ethiopia, 20 kilometers (km) (13 miles) upstream from the Sudan border, a driving distance of 729 km (453 miles) from Addis Ababa. Construction began in 2011 to capture the hydro-energy potential of the Blue Nile, a winding river of 1,450 km (910 miles) flowing down from Lake Tana, nestled in Ethiopia’s dense range of mountains. The Blue Nile, which joins the White Nile in Sudan under the bridge connecting Khartoum and Omdurman, provides over 80% of the volume of Nile waters that flow north through Egypt to the Mediterranean Sea. Ethiopians, refer to the Blue Nile, which contains 70% of the country’s river systems, as Abay River. “’Abay’ is derived from the Ge’ez word for ‘great’ to imply that it is ‘the river of rivers’.”*

The Ethiopian people self-financed the $5 billion cost of the GERD. No international loans were issued by Western financial institutions. Nor did China provide any financial assistance, contrary to those maligning China’s relationship with Ethiopia and with Africa. As a result, the GERD is sovereignly owned by the Ethiopian people. It is a well-deserved source of pride and national identity, much like the victory of Menelik II against the invading Italian army at Adwa, on March 1, 1896. Recognizing this accomplishment, I have suggested that upon completion of the GERD, Ethiopia should establish a new holiday that will be called, “GERD Day.”

The author standing in front of a painting of the completed GERD pointing to the Amharic words that mean “Our Pride.”

Humans Create Wealth

Standing at the top of the dam’s wall, the GERD, erected between two mountains, with its vast reservoir, is resplendent in its beauty. However, it is more than simple splendor. The GERD is a potent demonstration of the power of human creativity, and humankind’s harmony with the physical universe. All infrastructure is the product of human intervention. We human beings alter the physical universe by creating improvements. This noetic-creative process of the mind is actually transforming our planet, and implicitly the universe, for the advancement of humankind . It is the lack of infrastructure that is killing Africa and harming my United States as well.

The modern form of Lake Tana is estimated to be 5 million years old. Therefore, it is reasonable to estimate, that the Blue Nile, which emanates from Lake Tana’s waterfalls, is millions of years old as well. Thus, the Blue Nile has flowed into the White Nile, unexploited for millennium, before creative Ethiopians willfully decided to make this “lazy river” do some work i.e., produce energy for the progress of civilization.

*The GERD situated between two mountains over the Blue Nile River*

Given the staggering paucity of energy in sub-Saharan Africa, this injection of 5,150 MW is essential to preserve human life, which depends on energy for all its productive activity. The GERD will significantly improve Ethiopians access to electricity, which is currently estimated at 50%. Energy from the GERD will contribute to powering the industrialization of Ethiopia and will also benefit the greater Horn of Africa.

It is all but impossible for any visitor to the GERD not to marvel at this engineering achievement, but for me, it has additional significance. As a physical economist, I understand the vital role that infrastructure performs in a successful economy. Unlike simple financial transactions, services, and even tourism, all of which macro economists include in computing the GDP of an economy, hard infrastructure is unique. It inserts value by enhancing the productive process, which results in the creation of additional wealth for society. Infrastructure, a physical input, increases productivity, enabling the economy to expand (produce more tangible wealth) at a faster rate during the ensuing production cycle. All economies function on and within a given integrated infrastructure platform. A more technologically advanced platform creates more wealth and profitability for the entire economy/society. An economy without energy, a density of paved roads, and railroads per area, is doomed to create misery and death for its population.

Thus, the GERD, a human intrusion into nature, not only produces desperately needed energy, but raises Ethiopia’s infrastructure platform to a more advanced level that will permeate the entire productive process of the economy.

*The author examining the control panel above, and in front one of the operating turbines below.*

A Scientific-Engineering Wonder

The height of the dam is 145 meters and is 645 meters above sea level. Its length is 1,780 meters. The reservoir surface area is 1,874 km squared, and will hold 74 billion cubic meters of water. When the water level in the reservoir reaches a height of 640 meters above sea level, it will start flowing into the power generation structure of the dam. There will be 13 independent waterways supplying water to the turbines below through installed pipes, 8.5 meters wide. This directed water flow will rotate the turbines, producing a maximum of 400 MW of electricity per turbine. The water from the reservoir will descend by gravity 123 meters from the head (where the water enters) to the turbines below, at a flow rate of 330 cubic meters per second. These two parameters determine the potential electrical power that can be generated through rotating the turbines 125 times per minute across a magnetic field. U.S. based General Electric (GE) is supplying 5 of the 13 turbines. Presently there are two GE made turbines producing 375 MW each, which has added 500 MW of electricity to Ethiopia’s national grid. This has enabled Ethiopia to export 275 MW of electricity to its neighbors; 75 MW to Djibouti, 100 MW to Sudan, and 100 MW to Kenya. Both these turbines went into operation in 2022. The additional 11 turbines will produce 400 MW each, yielding a total output of 5,150 MW, with average annual energy production about 16,692 gigawatt hours, generated from the GERD.

*Building new pipes above to carry water to new turbines being built below*

The GERD Is For Africa

The GERD will insert over 5,000 MW of renewable electricity into an African sub-continent starved for power. With its already existing sources of energy, the GERD will make Ethiopia second to South Africa in generation of electricity in sub-Saharan Africa. While this amount of additional electricity is desperately needed, my calculations are that to transform African nations into modern industrialized economies, a minimum of 1,000 gigawatts of power has to be added to national grids. It would be wise for more African nations to emulate Ethiopia’s bold visionary initiative. This is the pathway for poverty and hunger to be finally eliminated on the continent.

There is no danger to downstream nations from the GERD. Ethiopia has extended the time it will take to fill the GERD’s reservoir beyond the original plan of 3 to 4 years, in order to mitigate any substantial reduction in the flow of the Nile River. Annual fillings will continue until achieving completion. Ethiopia is making every effort to maintain the flow of the Blue Nile while this huge reservoir is being filled yearly during the June and July months of the rainy season. After 3 fillings (2020-2022), the reservoir now holds 22 billion cubic meters of water. Sudanese officials report no noticeable decrease in the water levels of the Nile traveling through their nation.

*The author being interviewed by Ethiopian News Agency*

The GERD will regulate the flow of the Nile, preventing both deadly flooding in Sudan, and the dwindling of the Nile during drier seasons. The GERD will have three spillways with a discharge capacity of 19,000 cubic meters per second to prevent flooding of the Nile. At the higher altitude of the GERD’s reservoir, evaporation, which can account for 10% of the Nile’s total volume of 84 billion cubic meters, will be reduced. Due to the size and depth of the GERD’s reservoir, there will also be a reduction in the transfer of sediments from the Blue Nile.

The drainage area of the Nile Basin includes 11 African nations whose total population is over 400 million and growing, with Egypt and Ethiopia accounting for over half of the people. A long term development plan that provides for the well-being of the people residing in the nations of the Nile Basin, should be established. However, we must be cognizant that the waters of the Nile River are not sufficient to provide for the expanding population of the region. Other alternatives must be sought.

For future generations of the Nile Basin nations to prosper, we should create the equivalent of a second Nile River through nuclear powered desalination. Nuclear power plants can be built along the Mediterranean and Red Sea coasts. This would deliver millions of tons of fresh water and provide thousands of megawatts of electricity to the Nile Basin nations. Application of nuclear energy, would also crucially upgrade the infrastructure platform of a large section of the African continent by introducing advanced nuclear technologies. Many pessimists will complain that this is impractical and will never happen. In response to these naysayers, I say: let us aspire to the same audacious optimism of Ethiopia when they conceived of creating the GERD where only mountains and the Blue Nile existed.

*Wikipedia

*Schematic diagram of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam*

Amb Fitsum Arega Explains Why Ethiopian Dam is A Matter of Life and Death for Ethiopia

July 17, 2021July 17, 2021 Lawrence Africa, African Union, AU, Egypt, electricity, Ethiopia, Fitsum Arega, GERD, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Horn of Africa, hydroelectric dam, Nile River, poverty, Sudan

The Op Ed below by Ethiopia’s envoy to the United States, Ambassador Fitsum Arega, is an excellent presentation on the importance of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam-GERD, for the future of Ethiopia and Africa.

“Therefore, for Ethiopia, building the GERD is not a matter of choice, but an economic and developmental necessity and the way out of poverty for a nation of 112 million people.”

Reprinted from BlackPressUSA,, July 14, 2021

OP-ED: The Untold Story of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

NNPA NEWSWIRE — In 2011, Ethiopia announced to build a hydroelectric dam on its Abbay River, known to outsiders as the Blue Nile or Nile River. The dam was named the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) because it was designed to bring about the economic and renewal of Ethiopia, a nation mentioned in Genesis 2:13 as the Land in which the River Ghion (or Nile) flows. The GERD will be the largest hydropower dam in Africa and when completed it is expected to generate more than 5,000 MW installed power generation capacity and will have more than two times the capacity of Hoover Dam.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has now reached 81 percent completion that includes 98.5 percent of civil, 55 percent of electromechanical, and 55.3 percent of the hydroelectric structure works.

By Fitsum Arega, Ethiopian Ambassador to the U.S., Special to the NNPA Newswire Fitsum Arega is the Ethiopian Ambassador to the United States.

Fitsum Arega is the Ethiopian Ambassador to the United States.

There is a great story unfolding in Africa. It is a story that literally throws light on what has been called, “The Dark Continent.”

In 2011, Ethiopia announced to build a hydroelectric dam on its Abbay River, known to outsiders as the Blue Nile or Nile River.

The dam was named the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) because it was designed to bring about the economic and renewal of Ethiopia, a nation mentioned in Genesis 2:13 as the Land in which the River Ghion (or Nile) flows.

The GERD will be the largest hydropower dam in Africa and when completed it is expected to generate more than 5,000 MW installed power generation capacity and will have more than two times the capacity of Hoover Dam.

The total capacity of the reservoir is 74 billion cubic meters to be filled over several years. It will cost nearly $5 billion to complete the dam.

The GERD has now reached 81 percent completion that includes 98.5 percent of civil, 55 percent of electromechanical, and 55.3 percent of the hydroelectric structure works.

As seen on the photo, the two water tunnels have been completed and started operating in April this year.

Out of the 13 turbines the first two will be completed and are expected to generate 750 MW in September 2021. The dam is expected to be completed within two years.

The GERD is completely financed by the contributions of the Ethiopian people without any foreign aid or loans. It is being built with the blood, sweat and tears of the Ethiopian people.

Ethiopia generates 85 percent of the Nile River flow, but colonial-era and postcolonial agreements on the Nile, to which Ethiopia was not a party, have given Egypt the disproportionate amount of water while giving Sudan a lesser amount. These agreements gave zero water allocation to Ethiopia. Egypt today wants to keep the old colonial arrangement in place in one form or another.

According to a 2018 World Bank report, “About 70 percent of the population in Ethiopia live without electricity.”

The purpose of the GERD is to provide access to electricity to more than 60 million Ethiopians and provide affordable electricity to the service, industrial and agricultural sectors.

It also aligns with Ethiopia’s green development ambitions as it represents a sustainable socio-economic project replacing fossil fuels reducing CO2 emissions.

Therefore, for Ethiopia, building the GERD is not a matter of choice, but an economic and developmental necessity and the way out of poverty for a nation of 112 million people.

The GERD will also provide many benefits to the entire Horn of Africa region and beyond. It will provide affordable and renewable energy to Sudan, Egypt and other countries in the region.

It will also significantly help in regulating the supply of water to Egypt and Sudan during dry and wet seasons and provide regional water storage capacity with less evaporation and prevent flooding to Sudan and Egypt, all these at no cost to both countries.

In 2015, the three countries signed the Declaration of Principles, per which the downstream countries [Egypt and Sudan] should not be negatively affected by the construction of the dam.

Hardly a day goes by without complaints from Egypt and Sudan about the harm that could result from construction of the GERD. They claim they will get less water because of the dam.

That is far from the truth because the GERD releases the water downstream once the water is used to spin the turbines that produce electricity. GERD is not an irrigation or water consuming project.

Ethiopia has been open and transparent in its construction of the GERD. Ethiopia has invited both Egypt and Sudan in good faith to participate in the International Panel of Experts (IPOE) to discuss the design, work together on technical issues and resolve any issues of concern in the spirit of African brotherhood.

Unfortunately, Egypt has tried to pressure Ethiopia by coordinating action with the Arab League, which has issued various statement of solidarity with Egypt and against Ethiopia.

Egypt has also tried to use the Trump administration to pressure Ethiopia. In September 2020, the Trump administration “paused” U.S. aid to Ethiopia because Ethiopia would not agree to a deal on the GERD drafted by Egypt and the U.S.

Egypt has also taken the issue before the U.N. Security Council to pressure Ethiopia. Just last week, the Security Council considered the matter and determined that the African Union is the best forum to deal with the issues.

Ethiopia’s position on GERD negotiations is guided by a simple principle. “African solutions to African problems.”

While the Arab League and the U.S. could play a role in encouraging the three countries to resolve their differences diplomatically, the fact remains that the three African countries must use their own resources at the African Union to deal with their problems.

Ethiopia’s principle of African solutions to African problems is based on the belief that Africans are fully capable of taking care of their own problems without interference. Indeed, after nearly seven decades of independence, Africa has the leadership and resources to deal with its own problems.

Ethiopia is acutely aware of the fact that Africa’s post-colonial experience and more recent trends in foreign interference in African affairs has not been positive.

Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan signed their joint Declaration of Principles (DOP) in 2015. The DOP is based on 10 basic principles which require the three countries to work cooperatively and in good faith to negotiate and resolve differences on the GERD.

They agreed to work cooperatively among themselves, without external interference, to ensure regional integration, prevent significant harm from construction of the dam, share data on the dam’s performance, increase dam safety and commit to peaceful resolution of disputes.

Egypt has given lip service to African Union involvement in resolution of GERD disputes.

Egypt’s reliance on the Arab League and efforts to use the U.S. to pressure Ethiopia, reflect either lack of confidence in the AU or a determination that external pressure can even override AU efforts and give Egypt greater negotiating advantage. This may account for Egypt’s lack of serious commitment and unwillingness to negotiate within the AU framework.

To date, no significant harm has been caused to Egypt or Sudan as a result of the ongoing construction of the GERD.

The first filling of the dam in July 2020 went uneventfully. The current filling which is ongoing since early July 2021 has presented no issues as well. Egypt has issued a public statement to that effect.

Ethiopia believes the GERD will bring many benefits to the Horn region and beyond. A comprehensive agreement on the GERD between the two countries is possible today if Egypt and Sudan genuinely commit to the AU-led negotiations. The negotiations could be expedited and bear fruit if Egypt and Sudan undertake the following:

Fully and wholeheartedly commit the negotiations taking place under the sponsorship of the African Union.
Apply the 2015 Declaration of Principles in guiding the negotiations.
Refrain from engaging in propaganda and disinformation wars during the AU-led negotiations.
Depoliticize the GERD, exert maximum political will and focus on resolving technical issues.

A negotiated, mutually beneficial and equitable solution is the only way to achieve long-term interests in the region.

Ethiopia is committed to continue to push for a constructive negotiation to reach a mutually beneficial agreement that ensures the legitimate interests of the three countries.

Ethiopia believes the only way to resolve the differences regarding the filling and operation of GERD is through dialogue and by resorting to technically informed consultations.

The Nile is bountiful for all countries to share and use wisely. We must all think in terms of regional and collective benefits.

Paraphrasing the words of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan are part of “an inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly.” We must work together in good faith and good will for the betterment of our people.

Fitsum Arega is the Ethiopian Ambassador to the United States.

Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton

Ethiopia Election: A Vote for Peace, Unity, and Prosperity

June 28, 2021June 28, 2021 Lawrence Abiy Ahmed, African Union, Antony Blinken, AU, Egypt, electricity, Ethiopia, GERD, National Elections, Nile River, President Biden, President Obasanjo, Prime Media, Prosperity Party, Sudan, United States

Lawrence Freeman speaking with Dr. Birhanu Lenjiso of Prime Media

Below is a 30 minute interview with on the Ethiopian national elections conducted on June 21, 2021. It was conducted in the studio of Prime Media on the June 23rd, in Addis Ababa.

The Ethiopian people proved all the critics, pundits, Western media, and Western governments, especially the United States and Great Britain wrong in their predictions of violence and chaos for Ethiopia’s national elections. The Ethiopian people surprised even some government supporters with their orderly, calm, and peaceful manner in electing Prime Minister Ably Ahmed and the Prosperity Party.

Hours after my interview, former Nigeria President Olusegun Obasanjo, at a press conference in Addis Ababa, representing the African Union declared that the election was conducted in a “peaceful, orderly and credible manner.” Obasanjo echoed the observations made by the East African Standby Force in a press conference on Tuesday following the election. Both ESAF and AU has observers monitoring the election process.

Will The U.S. Support Egypt’s Violation Of Ethiopia’s Sovereign Right to Operate The GERD?

June 5, 2021June 9, 2021 Lawrence Abiy Ahmed, Africa, Antony Blinken, Djibouti, economic growth, Egypt, ENDF, energy, Ethiopia, ethnic cleansing, ethnicity, genocide, geo-politics, Nile River, nuclear energy, President Biden, President Lincoln, President Sisi, President Trump, Sanctions, Sudan, Tigray, TPLF, U.S. Congress

Countries of the Nile River Basin-World Bank (Courtesy of researchgate.net)

Will The U.S. Support Egypt’s Violation Of Ethiopia’s Sovereign Right to Operate The GERD?

Lawrence Freeman

June 5, 2021

Is the United States’ continued escalation of hostile policy towards Ethiopia preparing the groundwork to support Egypt’s “colonial rights” over the Nile River? As the White House and Congress threaten more sanctions against Ethiopia, their sovereign right to generate electricity for its people through the operation of the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) is being linked to the conflict in Tigray. Is the Biden administration and the Democrat controlled Congress ominously following in the footsteps of President Trump, who shockingly gave a “green light” for Egypt to bomb the GERD? This would be a grave mistake, with more disastrous consequences than the Obama’s administration’s bombing of Libya and overthrowing President Kaddafi. While U.S. foreign policy in the region is aligning itself more closely to Egypt, it continues to undermine Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s sovereign authority to prevent the Balkanization of his nation.

Sanctions Are Not For Allies

Secretary of State, Antony Blinken’s still unproven, but often repeated March 30^th allegation of ethnic cleansing by the Ethiopia government in Tigray, has provided the impetus for the crescendo of group-think Congressional voices to attack Ethiopia, America’s foremost ally in the Horn of Africa. On May 23^rd, Blinken intensified U.S. aggression towards Ethiopia by:

Issuing sanctions.
Cutting off funds for security and economic growth.
Pressuring multi-lateral institutions to cease funding programs in Ethiopia.
altering U.S.-Ethiopia defense accords, which have been essential in the war against terrorism and providing security for East Africa.

(Read: New U.S. Hostilities Against Ethiopia Threatens Horn of Africa)

Addis Ababa February 5/2021 (ENA) Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed held phone conversation with United States Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken on Thursday.

Both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives support Secretary Blinken’s sanctions against Ethiopia. Sanctions are a very poor and crude tool for conducting foreign policy, and I have opposed their implementation except in the most unique cases. However, it is unheard of to apply sanctions against a long-standing ally, and it is utterly counterproductive. The government of Prime Minister Abiy should be supported in defeating the insurrectionists, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). This is contrary to calls from the U.S and United Kingdom for a cease fire and reconciliation between the Ethiopian National defense Forces (ENDF) and the TPLF.

TPLF, not the Tigrayan community, is intent on tearing apart Ethiopia, and weakening the government of Prime Minister Abiy. Ethiopia’s future existence as a sovereign nation-state depends on quelling this insurrection.

Pause for a moment, think, then ask yourself; how did President Lincoln personally conduct the war against the southern rebels? He summarily shunned all calls for peace and reconciliation, until the anti-Union, insurrectionist movement was defeated.

The Biden administration and the U.S. Congress are contributing to the potential dismemberment of the most vital nation in East Africa by sanctioning, threatening, and punishing the government of Prime Minister Abiy. If these officials, actually had any knowledge of the dynamic of ethno-nationalism in Ethiopia, they might come to realize that their actions could encourage more ethnic regions to attempt separation from the nation of Ethiopia.

Senate Recklessness Led by Bob Menendez

A new level of belligerence towards Ethiopia was on display at the May 26^th, Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the conflict in Tigray. It is interesting to note that all but one of the speeches and accusations against Ethiopia were uttered by liberal Democrats. Ranking Member, Frank Risch, was the only Republican to join the anti-Ethiopian crusade.

Chairmen Bob Menendez referenced Secretary Blinken’s allegations of ethnic cleansing and other alleged crimes by the Ethiopian government. He demanded that Ambassador Godec, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, who was testifying, provide the proof that Ethiopia has “committed war crimes and crimes against humanity” in Tigray. Appallingly, the other Democrats on the committee followed Menendez in lock-step, demanding “action now” against Ethiopia.

Senator Bob Menendez (D. NJ) Chairman of Senate Foreign Relations Committee (Courtesy foreign.senate.gov)

Sarah Charles, testifying from USAID Humanitarian Assistance, further inflamed the hearings by projecting that Ethiopia will experience another “man-made famine,” reminiscent of 1985, if actions are not taken immediately. The potential for a new famine became the mantra of the senators at the hearing.

Allegations of hunger, and atrocities committed during the conflict must be fully investigated. However, to compare the current situation in Tigray to the famine of 1983-1985 that caused over one million deaths in Ethiopia, is contemptible. That famine was exacerbated by the destructive policies of Mengistu Halle Mariam, leader of the fascist-Marxist Derg. Likely unbeknownst to the uninformed senators, Mengistu, from 1976-1978 launched the “Red Terror,” murdering over half a million Ethiopians, in a genocide against his own people. To equate the famine of 1983-1985 and Mengistu’s policies to Ethiopia today and Prime Minister Abiy, is beyond reprehensible.

Senator Menendez opened the hearing by claiming that the conflict in Tigray echoes what happened in Darfur, Sudan. I travelled to Sudan many times from 1996 to 2012, including two tours of Darfur. Between that and my own extensive research, I am very familiar with Sudan and its history. I can assert unequivocally that there is no resemblance between Darfur, Sudan, and Tigray, Ethiopia.

Tragically, the behavior by the U.S. Congress, is shameful and reflects an acute superficiality in understanding the complex history of Ethiopia.

Overturn Geo-Political Thinking

While the U.S., led by Secretary Blinken, is reversing decades of friendship between Ethiopia and America, and endangering the Horn of Africa, the Biden administration is enhancing its rapport with Egypt.

On May 26^th, while the Senate was ratcheting up the pressure on Ethiopia, Secretary Blinken was in Cairo conveying:

“President Biden’s appreciation to President Sisi for Egypt’s critical mediation efforts in support of a cease fire between Israel and Hamas…”

“The Secretary affirmed the strong strategic partnership between the United States and Egypt, and President Biden’s commitment to this relationship. He reiterated the United States’ commitment to Egypt’s water security and to the urgent resumption of substantive and results oriented negotiations under the leadership of the African Union to resolve the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).”

The sovereign right of Ethiopia to fill and operate the GERD for the general welfare of its citizens has become linked to the conditions in Tigray.

Democrat Senator Mendez, at the hearing ostensibly on Tigray, made the same veiled threat on the GERD as President Trump, who infamously suggested that Egypt might try to blow-up the GERD. Mendez blurted out, that Egypt has told him more than once, “if the GERD issue is not dealt with in a way that assures their water needs…they will do what is necessary…They have red lines…”

Ethiopia and its seven neighboring countries

On May 27, Egyptian President Sisi, traveled to Djibouti, whose port provides access to the Gulf of Eden and Indian Ocean for its neighbor and major trading partner, Ethiopia. This was the first visit ever of an Egyptian head of state to Djibouti. According to African Intelligence, the two leaders discussed new security relations between their nations. African Intelligence further reports that Egypt’s defense minister and army chief of staff, who also visited Djibouti, “would like to see the creation of an Egyptian base in Djibouti not far from the Ethiopian border.”

At his news conference in Djibouti, President Sisi said:

“I stressed Egypt’s rejection of any attempt to impose a fait accompli through unilateral measures that disregard the interests and rights of the two downstream countries.”

Egypt has made repeated military threats against Ethiopia, has formed a military alliance with Sudan, and last month, carried out joint military exercises with Sudan labeled “Guardians of the Nile”.

Since Egypt is the second largest recipient of U.S. aid next to Israel, it would not be difficult for the U.S. to convince Egypt to stand down.

According to a knowledgeable expert on the region, the Biden administration is preparing to relocate the hub of its anti-terrorism deployment in the Horn of Africa, from Ethiopia to Kenya. The U.S. is trying to persuade Gulf nations, who support Ethiopia, to leverage their relationship in an effort to pressure Ethiopia to abandon its commitment to the GERD.

President Biden may or may not be aware of the implications of his decision to undermine Prime Minister Abiy’s government and support Egypt in their brinkmanship with Ethiopia regarding the GERD. His administration, filled with personnel from the Obama and Clinton presidencies, is following the same warped geo-political doctrine of his predecessors. Rather than responding to the fixed contours of the contentiousness surrounding the GERD, a true statesman would desire to shift the discussion to a higher level of potential resolution. Instead, the U.S., dominated by geo-politics, is fixated on seeking partners, who serve their narrow immediate interests, such as Egypt’s role in mitigating the Israel-Palestine crisis.

In fact, there is no danger of Ethiopia depriving downstream nations (Egypt and Sudan) of water for their people. This was admitted by Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry himself: Egypt Foreign Minister Says Water Safe Despite Ethiopian Dam Threat.

The GERD will actually help both Egypt and Sudan by regulating the Nile, preventing deadly floods, reducing evaporation, and providing a water bank to draw on in emergencies. However, the GERD is not even the fundamental cause of Egypt’s water problem, as Yaniv Cohen explains: Egypt has a water problem and it’s not only the GERD

Eskom’s Koeberg nuclear power station today turned on its temporary mobile groundwater desalination plant, which will ease the pressure on the City of Cape Town’s water supply. Courtesy esi-africa.com)

The real issue concerning the Nile River is strategic; the Nile does not have enough water to provide for the hundreds of millions of Africans living in the nations of the Nile Basin.

For the economic growth and well being of the nations of the Nile Basin, more water is needed than the Nile can deliver. The equivalent of a second Nile has to be created by human beings. This is the discussion that should take place among the Nile Basin nations and the larger international communities. It requires creative and visionary thinking, outside of the box, not confined to geo-politics. To alleviate nations from quarreling over a limited supply of Nile water, let us be bold in our imagination. Instead, conceive of the New Nile Project by constructing nuclear powered desalination plants along the Mediterranean and Red Sea to create large amounts of new potable water. These nuclear plants in additional to efficient desalination, and supplying abundant energy, would become nuplexes– manufacturing hubs for industrial and agricultural development.

Some addicted to the narrow thinking of geo-politics today, will object and say it cannot be done, it will take too long and cost too much. To those naysayers, I would respond by asking, is it better to have water wars among emerging nations that are struggling to feed their people laden by poverty? As populations expand, and economies grow, more water will be required. Why not use the urgency of resolving today’s combative dispute over the filling of the GERD, to prod our lazy minds to create a solution for the future of the Nile Basin? Overcoming all the many engineering and scientific impediments to achieve our New Nile Project will be challenging, but this is the very reason we human beings were put here on earth.

President Lincoln delivering his Second Inaugural Address March 4, 1865. (courtesy hisotyplace.com)

A Just End To A New Beginning

The fighting in Tigray, the ancient birthplace of Ethiopia, must come to end as soon as possible to prevent the loss of more lives and further suffering. This laceration in the fabric of Ethiopian society should be healed, and not allowed to propagate. Following the government’s safeguarding of the Tigray region, an all-out mobilization must be launched, with vigorous international support, to rebuild the province, upgrading economic conditions to guarantee that every person living in Tigray, a productive and dignified life.

When the conflict in Tigray is concluded, it would be appropriate for Prime Minister Abiy to emulate the spirit of President Lincoln’s Second Inaugural Address. It was delivered on March 4, 1865, almost four years after the war began, which killed hundreds of thousands of Americans, and six weeks before his enemies assassinated him. After President Lincoln affirms his commitment to defeat the southern rebels at all costs, he compassionately pleads for peace.

“With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation’s wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.”

Let Prime Minister Abiy use this overture as a prelude to lead a healthy dialogue with the Ethiopian people; to unite the nation around the preeminence of an Ethiopian identity, one that supersedes ethnicity. Reformulation of the Ethiopian Constitution of 1995 to emphasize Ethiopian citizenship, which transcends ethno-regionalism, should follow.

It is in the shared, common, and self-interest of all Ethiopians to participate in the development of their society and increase the wealth of their economy for the benefit of themselves and their posterity. With the near future generation of 6,200 megawatts of electricity from the GERD, Ethiopia will bring light and prosperity to all its citizens. This is cause for all Ethiopians to join together in joyous celebration.

Read my earlier posts:

New U.S. Hostilities Against Ethiopia Threatens Horn of Africa

Prime Logue/Media Interviews Lawrence Freeman in Addis Ababa: “Without the Elimination of Poverty, There Will Be No Democracy in Africa”

U.S. Senators’ Call for Postponing Ethiopian Election Is Foolish & Very Dangerous

Prime Logue/Media Interviews Lawrence Freeman in Addis Ababa: “Without the Elimination of Poverty, There Will Be No Democracy in Africa”

May 10, 2021June 9, 2021 Lawrence Africa, China, colonialism, COVID-19, creativity, democracy, development, energy, Ethiopia, ethnicity, GERD, human rights, Infrastructure, June 5 elections, Lalibela, Mekele, Nation State, Nigeria, poverty, reason, Sudan, Tigray, TPLF, Transaqua, US

May 10, 2021

On April 30th. I was interviewed in Addis Ababa by Prime Logue/Media for an hour. The interview is separated into four parts.

For those of you who do not have the time to view the entire interview, I would suggest you watch Part 4-16 minutes long. Here, I outline my development policy for Africa. In this, the 22nd century, the African continent will be the focus of strategic policy for the world. My policy starts from recognizing the uniquely human power of creative reason. The key question for policy makers should be how do we develop human beings. True democracy, cannot flourish unless and until poverty is eliminated. The nation state must be strengthened to provide for successive generations of its people. “The leadership of the U.S. does not understand, or want to understand, that the key to supporting Africa is development.”

Topics discussed in Part 1 include: Nigeria, refurbishing Lake Chad, Lalibela, Tigray, humanitarian assistance, Covid19 vaccinations in Africa.

Topics discussed in Part 2 include: poverty, developing Ethiopia, the nation-state, regime change in Libya, TPLF attack in Mekele, genocide, human rights.

Topics discussed in Part 3 include: US-Africa policy, flaws in Ethiopia Constitution, GERD, Egypt, Ethiopian identity, June 5 elections.

Topics discussed in Part 4 include. Slavery, colonialism, neo-colonialism, reason, agape, food, electricity, desperation, jobs, ICC,