Please watch this excellent interview with Lawrence Freeman conducted last month. You will enjoy it. Topics discussed:
What does the coup in Niger reveal about the failure of Western policy for Africa?
Why economic development is a human right?
Is the Western political and financial oligarchical elite brain dead or can they change in accordance with reality?
Why is the West scared of the newly expanded BRICS?
Why is China’s policy towards Africa superior to that of the West?
Is Africa on the verge of an economic-political breakout?
Are Western leaders smart enough to modify their failed policies.
Will Africa have too many people? Can there be too much human creativity?
All of this issues and more are discussed in a conversation with Mel K that you wont see anywhere else.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com.
The just concluded BRICS Summit in South Africa, has changed our planet and implicitly the universe. This change cannot be reversed. It is the consequence of adding Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Argentina to the BRICS, beginning in January 2024. This expansion of the BRICS to eleven nations, which already comprised 40% of the world population, and is expected to reach 32.1% of the global GDP this year, larger than that of the G-7 nations, cannot be disregarded. It is a new reality for our civilization. Obviously, as a result of its doubling of participating nations, the BRICS will experience significant growth beginning next year.
The new expanded BRICS definitely ends the control by the West’s “rules-based order.” There is now an alternative global institution not under the thumb of the so called advanced sector nations and their IMF-World Bank financial system. A new global potential has emerged, one rooted in the commitment by “South -South” nations to fully develop their economies. The BRICS, unlike the geopolitical ideologues of the West, will bring forth a new paradigm of development in political-economic relations among nations.
A new dynamic now exists on our planet which is the culmination of the progression of the BRICS from its initial embryonic form to a universal institution. The BRICS came into existence in 2009 , and its own New Development Bank, five years later. Despite all the naysayers, critics, and those who called this recent BRICS Summit “much ado about nothing.” The BRICS is here to stay and is expanding.
We should all take a moment to celebrate this accomplishment, but not for too long. We have to get back to work, and make sure we realize the full potential of this new factor of change that has altered our universe. To my friends and collaborators, who have labored with me to improve the living conditions of the people of Africa, I anticipate a special joy, knowing that in a few months, three of the eleven BRICS nations will be from the African continent.
“BRICS expansion game changer for Africa” Lawrence Freeman
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD, ADDIS ABABA, August 26, 2023
The invitation of Ethiopia and Egypt to BRICS membership gives Africa a very powerful representation in the new bloc and could be a game changer for the continent, says American political economy analyst.
“This is very good news for Ethiopia, for Africa, and for World Development”, added Lawrence Freeman, a political analyst of African affairs.
He further explained that he is optimistic and excited over Ethiopia’s membership of the new bloc as this kind of new economic relations with the BRICS would help it obtain more resources to realize more of its desire and potential of economy.
“This is what I’ve been advocating for over 10 years” Freeman noted.
According to him, the BRICS expansion is a new paradigm or dynamics in the world while the changes that are going on in West Africa are also part of the same process, Freeman stressed.
Out of the 11 nations in the BRICS, a bloc that represents larger portions of the world economy and the world’s population, almost 30% are African nations; this represents a new reality or a new dynamic.
The rules based order is no longer, hegemonic and the world is not unipolar, he noted adding “that gives us potential for transformational change in Africa”
The African nations and the whole global south no longer have to bow to the rules based order, according to Freeman.
The BRICS is now accelerating its institution as an alternative to the western view of the world and the Western political economic system that gives a new, rules-based international order.
“And we’re already approaching the post unipolar Western dominated world. And BRICS is going to be one of the most central institutions in making those kinds of dynamic changes for world economic development” Freeman indicated.
Concerning the way African countries can benefit from the expansion of BRICS membership, he said that it is up to leaders of these African nations, and leaders of the BRICS, and leaders of other global south nations, to make these new potentials come about to realize that and to organize themselves around a new paradigm of economic order for development.
And the BRICS now has made it clear that they’re going to launch an expansion of their New Development Bank, the NDB, which is going to be increasing its lending. And 30% of its new lending will be in local currencies. Freeman further noted that African countries are now going to be capable of having access to loans from the do not contain the conditionality that the IMF and World Bank loans do.
“And that is something very exciting. Something I’ve been fighting for 30 years, and I’m very happy to see the progress we’re making. And reality has now changed as of today” Regarding the future ties of BRICS, developing countries with other blocs, Freeman stressed that the changes in the BRICS configuration is a new factor in reality and cannot be changed back.
Therefore he noted, the West now has to become aware of that and reflect on their policies and change their policies to pro development policies for these emerging markets, he reiterated.
Watch my discussion on the significance of the BRICS Summit
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. Mr. Freeman strongly beleives that economic development is an essential human right. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com.
While the Western World, in particular, was shocked by the July 26, 2023, coup in Niger, I was not. This is now the fifth or sixth coup, (depending how you count) in the Sahel and Western Africa, following Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Sudan, and Chad. Sadly, more coups may follow, unless we face the truth, and change Western policy. The primary underlying cause for these coups, is poverty, resulting in despair and desperation in the population. We should be clear that Russia may benefit, but they are not the cause of Africa’s coups. It is obsessive reliance on kinetic counter terrorism programs in the Sahel, all of which have failed, that drives policy makers to repeatedly fail to see the error of their ways. Niger’s coup should make it obvious to the architects of U.S.-European policy for Africa, unless they are brain-dead, that a radically new course of strategic thinking is required. Promoting economic development is the most vital element of a new strategic policy for Africa, and the Sahel in particular.
Remember Mali
For those of us who have been involved in Africa for decades, remember the Malian coup in the Spring of 2012. Prior to the removal of Malian President, Amadou Toure, by the military, Mali was touted by the West, as the show case of democracy and stability. It was viewed as a strong ally of the United States, with their armed forces trained by the U.S. The immediate trigger for the collapse of Mali, was the disastrous decision to overthrow the government of Libya and assassinate President Omar Gaddafi by President Obama, and his assemblage of war-hawks (witches); Susan Rice, Hilary Clinton, and Samantha Power. Obama’s October 2011 regime-change of a stable Libyan nation, unleashed hell across north Africa and the Sahel with thousands of armed Tuaregs and violent extremists set loose to occupy weak state regions and ungoverned territories. Similar to U.S. support of Mali, Secreatry of State, Antony Blinken, made a special visit to Niger in March 2023, to strenthen U.S. backing for another nation in the Sahel.
Why Niger?
With the end of French-Afrique well on its way, particularly with the French being kicked out of Mali, and the failure of the French anti-terrorist military deployment in the Sahel, known as Operation Barkhane, the U.S. designated Niger as the center of its counter-terrorist operation in North Africa.
At the time of the July 26 coup of Nigerian resident, Mohamed Bazoum, by his presidential guards, there were 1,500 French troops and 1,200 U.S. troops based in Niger. Additionally, the U.S built its largest drone base in Africa, Air Base 201, at the cost of over $110 million dollars, to provide intelligence and surveillance in the U.S. campaign against violent extremism. Estimates are that the U.S. spent almost half a billion dollars training the Nigerien armed forces.
Last week’s coup in Niger caught much of the outside world by surprise, given the country’s image as a relatively stable outlier in a region beset by frequent upheaval. Many outside observers found it hard to understand how President Mohamed Bazoum, a seemingly well-regarded leader believed to enjoy popular legitimacy, was overthrown by the armed forces. But if foreign observers were stunned by Bazoum’s toppling, it did not come as a shock to many Nigeriens, and not solely because of their country’s history of military coups.
To begin with, tensions between Bazoum and the army’s top brass and senior Defense Ministry officials were well-known to Nigeriens. Bazoum was also ushered into power in 2021 by a controversial election in which a popular opposition candidate was barred from running and that featured allegations of electoral malpractice. The protests that followed were marred by at least two deaths, many more injuries and mass arrests. And harsh crackdowns on recent public protests against the rising cost of living and Niger’s security partnership with France likely did little to assuage Nigeriens’ concerns.
Claims of an improved security landscape in Niger amid the fight against Islamist jihadists are also open to debate. But beyond the vagaries of statistical analysis, many Nigeriens simply do not believe that their lives have become safer and more prosperous, and seemingly favorable comparisons with their neighbors are no consolation. Niger remains one of the world’s most impoverished nations…
Security, economic progress, and social development are necessary to sustain public support for any system of government, including democracy. (Emphasis added)
Development Not Understood
During the years of the Obama Presidency, members of his administration would repeatedly and publicly lecture me that “we don’t do infrastructure.” Now, in the two and a half years of Joe Biden’s Presidency, both he and Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, openly espouse that the overarching intent of U.S. policy towards Africa (and the rest of the world) is to export “democracy” and “ good governance.” They believe, that only when nations embrace and commit to implement their constructs, will they be allowed to join the “rules-based international order.”
A July 17, 2023, opinion by the Editorial Board of the Washington Post reveals, unintentionally, the tragic flaws of the Biden-Blinken policy towards Africa.
As we have argued in this space before, the Biden administration should compete with Russia’s aggressive maneuvering, as well as China’s, for influence in Africa by focusing on what the United States does best: building the infrastructure of democracy. That takes time. But in the long term, it is the key to ending chronic instability and crippling poverty (sic), reining in corruption, and jump-starting economic development.
There is only one thing wrong with this policy; it is no damn good! Stability, peace, and democracy are dependent on a population that is prosperous, educated, and secure. Without economic development, these goals will not be achieved. If the tens of billions of dollars that was spent on kinetic counter-terrorism programs to diminish violent extremism, had been deployed for building infrastructure, the Sahel would be in far better shape than it is today. Electricity, roads, railroads, water management, farming, and manufacturing are essential for the wellbeing of a nation.
Without a continuously rising stanard of living for its people, Niger, like many other African nations, will not achieve peace, and stability. The physical economic improvement in the material existence of the lives of the population is not optional, not secondary, but a primary-essential requirement for a nation state’s continued existence.
The failure to comprehend these fundamental concepts is at the crux of the moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Western political-financial elites and their inability to design a successful strategy towards Africa.
Listen to my 20 minute PressTV interview on Niger.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
The concept that economic development is a fundamental human right has been rejected by the United States, the United Nations, Europe, and all Western institutions, including Non-Government Organizations (NGOs). This failure to understand the essential, vital importance of promoting real-physical economic growth in developing nations has prevented the West from achieving its goals for human rights, good governance, and democracy, if they are even truly sincere about these objectives.
Zhang Weiwei is right: The United States has never considered poverty eradication as a human rights issue. I might add that the United Nations has officially refused China’s request to list economic development as a core human right.
However, contrary to the UN and U.S., the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights, correctly states in Article 22:
All peoples shall have the right to their economic, social, and cultural development…States shall have the duty…to ensure the exercise of the right to development.
China has succeeded in lifting three quarters of a billion of its people out of poverty; a feat that the Western financial institutions could not accomplish with their monetarist policies. This has been achieved through a dedicated effort by the Chinese government over several decades. Should not concerned nations in the West, collaborate with China to eliminate poverty worldwide, as a shared common mission?
U.S. Has lost Its Vision for Development
As the U.S. vision for the world has shrunk and its culture corrupted, we have produced no statesman, much less a visionary leader, who can articulate a policy for uplifting humankind. There are no Kennedys, Roosevelts, or Lincolns, in the political class of America today. As a result, the notion of developing other nations, (much less our own) has virtually vanished from the American lexicon, and U.S. strategic policy. Tragically for the U.S. and the rest of the world, the diseased doctrine of geopolitics has become the dominant ideology in formulating foreign policy. In this warped creed, might makes right, and the desire to remain on top dominates, in a belief structure of a fixed zero-sum world. In this perverted mind-set, what drives a nation’s foreign policy is the thirst to maintain its power.
Demands for so called human rights, good governance, and the insistence for Western structured democracy, are not only terribly flawed, but in fact, have been used as weapons to bludgeon nations into accepting the dictates of the “rules-based international order.” This is the new term for geopolitical control by the West, with its unipolar view of the world, following the demise of the Soviet Union. China and Russia are wrongly viewed as enemies of the U.S. However, it should be understood that China and Russia China, along with an increasing number of nations in the expanding non-align movement are indeed a threat to the hegemony of the “rules-based order.
BRICS is emerging as an alternative to the “international rules-based order.” Ocotober 2019. (Courtesey of wikapedia)
Again, I agree with Zhang Weiwei: “Only through development can poverty be eliminated, and the root causes of many conflicts be removed.” Allow me to extendthis line of reasoning by stating unequivocally: poverty is the enemy of human rights, the enemy of democracy, and the enemy of peace and stability.
Democracy and human rights are a cruel illusion: when almost half of one’s nation lives in poverty; when the majority of the citizens have no access to electricity; when mothers have to search for food each day to feed their children; when the lack of productive jobs forces young men and women to hustle for survival in the informal economy; and when families believe they have no long term economic security for the future.
Democracy is more than voting every four years. Democracy requires that its citizens have the material standard of living and leisure time to inform themselves so they can intelligently discuss and debate national policies that will impact the present and future of their nation. Electing candidates who will offer a meaningful and dignified life for its people, and hope for the future, requires a society with a culture that fosters a thinking citizenry. What makes us human is our creative imagination that allows us to discover the laws of the universe. Thus, each human being should have a rising standard of living that provides for one’s material needs and the freedom to nurture the creative potential of their mind.
Why isn’t the right to electricity a human right? Why isn’t the right to have a productive job a human right? Why isn’t the right to a quality education a human right? These omissions from the mantra of the “rules based order,” and the U.S. State Department, are glaring and fatal.
Common Aims of Humankind
A nation’s foreign policy towards other nations is clear and elementary, if one understands this crucial principle: all people share a universal similarity as members of the human species, who are uniquely endowed with the potential of creative reasoning. Thus, the interest of each nation is the same: the material and spiritual development of each of its citizens. Therefore, it is in the self-interest of each nation to cooperate with other nations to foster the enrichment of the mind, soul, and body of every human being. From this higher understanding of civilization, we redefine a nation’s relationship to the rest of the world, away from geopolitics to one of collaboration in creating a new paradigm based on economic development
President Franklin Roosevelt, and Prime Minister Winston Churchil, Casablanca Morocco. 1943, (Courtesey of the National War II Museum)
It has not always been the case that U.S. foreign policy towards developing nations excluded economic development. President Franklin Roosevelt was appalled at the conditions of Africans living in British controlled colonies. Prime Minister Churchill was furious when President Roosevelt confronted him with this ugly reality. Elliott Roosevelt, President Roosevelt’s son, who was present at many of his father’s meeting with the Prime Minister, reports in his book, As He Saw It, their diametrically opposed view on colonialism.Elliott Roosevelt recalls a heated conversation, when his father told Churchill, that after the war he intended to dismantle the British Imperial system. President Roosevelt also told his son of his intention to help turn the Sahara Desert green with vegetation.
Sixty years ago, a young President, John Kennedy, reversed his predecessor’s aloofness towards Africa, and embraced the newly independent African nations. He made a commitment to assist in modernizing and industrializing their underdeveloped economies. This was most evident in President Kennedy’s agreement with Ghana President, Kwame Nkrumah, to support the construction of the Volta River Dam project. To this end, the Kennedy administration provided a $40 million loan for the hydroelectric dam and bauxite smelting manufacturing facility to produce aluminum.
President Kennedy invites President Kwame Nkrumah to Washiongton DC, March 8, 1961, for the first State Dinner of his new presidency
When in the last five decades has the U.S. led any effort to assist an African, or developing nation, in significantly expanding its manufacturing capability?
In examining whether a nation’s foreign policy is successful or not, the criteria is obvious, and one that I have long ago adopted. Does it result in an improvement in the conditions of life? Does it lead to a reduction of poverty? If it does not, the policy should be discontinued, and replaced with a strategy to increase the production of physical economic wealth for the benefit of the people.
It is well past time for the “rules-based order” to be replaced with principles that benefit humankind. Principles are always superior to rules.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
The world is approaching a new danger of expanding wars, that could lead to nuclear destruction. Tragically, today, and in recent decades, the United States, is no longer led by great Presidents, statesmen, and strategic thinkers. In the U.S., we have no elected officials from either party with the qualities of leadership to navigate the world through our present crisis. There are not even any poor lilliputian sized imitations of Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, or John F Kennedy to steer the U.S. in these troubled waters.
The current President Joe Biden, and his Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, are infected by the diseased world outlook known as geopolitics. This geopolitical zero-sum doctrine dictates to the mindless, that the U.S. must remain on top, while all other superpowers must remain underneath. The so called rules based order is driving the U.S. closer and closer into confrontation with Russia. President Biden, and U.S. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, have foolishly declared China our number one enemy, and are preparing for a future war with China, of which there is no cause.
Absent from the mental constraints of geopolitics is any positive notion of a shared-common interest of mankind. We don’t need rules, we need principles, which articulate the common aims of development that are in the self-interest of every nation.
Today, on the 60th anniversary of this profound speech, let us reflect on the words of our beloved, departed president, John Kennedy, as he spoke to the nation and the world in a time of crisis, with the passion of reason, not of war.
“Nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war.”
June 4, 2023—When President John F. Kennedy took the podium at the commencement address of American University on June 10, 1963, he was about to deliver one of the most consequential speeches of his presidency. He had a vital message to deliver, both to the Soviet Union and to the American people.
President Kennedy speaks at American University June 10, 1963
Kennedy’s central topic was peace, world peace. Having experienced the eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with the Soviet Union called the Cuban Missile crisis (November 1962), the President was more committed than ever to finding an alternative to war. He had, of course, not abandoned his lifelong, and often strident, opposition to communism and its expansion. But, as an avid student of history, a combat veteran, and an experienced strategist, he had concluded that a new approach to the super-power conflict was needed.
I believe that Kennedy’s message is coherent with the best of the American System tradition, especially that of Abraham Lincoln and his lead general Ulysses Grant. While totally dedicated to defense of their nation, both understood the need for understanding and respecting the perspective of the “enemy,” and creating a peace that would benefit all sides in the conflict. (cf., the Gettysburg address) His approach also sharply contrasts with that of our government today.
I urge you to read the full American University speech and ponder it. Then send it to your congressmen; send it to the President; repost its message wherever you can. Demand our elected representatives read it: it is their duty to do so.
In the post below, I highlight some of the key elements of Kennedy’s June 10 speech, all of which challenge what has become accepted policy today. It should be noted, as well, that as a result of this speech, the Soviet leadership changed its policy toward talks on nuclear arms control, agreeing to discussions which ultimately resulted in the signing of a treaty a few months later.
Examine Your Attitudes
The core of Kennedy’s speech called on Americans to re-examine their attitudes on three key issues: the possibility of peace, the Soviet Union, and the “cold war” itself.
On the first, the President took aim at the view that world peace is impossible, and war is inevitable. The following paragraph is exemplary:
We need not accept that view. Our problems are manmade–therefore, they can be solved by man. And man can be as big as he wants. No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings. Man’s reason and spirit have often solved the seemingly unsolvable–and we believe they can do it again.
He proceeded to outline an approach characterized by practical steps, what he called the “process” of peace.
A statue in devastated Stalingrad after Nazi bombing.
Next, Kennedy called for people to examine their attitudes toward the Soviet Union. I quote a key section:
As Americans, we find communism profoundly repugnant as a negation of personal freedom and dignity. But we can still hail the Russian people for their many achievements–in science and space, in economic and industrial growth, in culture and in acts of courage.
Among the many traits the peoples of our two countries have in common, none is stronger than our mutual abhorrence of war. Almost unique, among the major world powers, we have never been at war with each other. And no nation in the history of battle ever suffered more than the Soviet Union suffered in the course of the Second World War. At least 20 million lost their lives. Countless millions of homes and farms were burned or sacked. A third of the nation’s territory, including nearly two thirds of its industrial base, was turned into a wasteland–a loss equivalent to the devastation of this country east of Chicago.
The President went on to say that it is both the United States and the Soviet Union which would suffer the greatest devastation if war broke out between them. And both sides would benefit from the establishment of peace. He concludes this section thus:
So, let us not be blind to our differences-but let us also direct attention to our common interests and to the means by which those differences can be resolved. And if we cannot end now our differences, at least we can help make the world safe for diversity. For, in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the same air. We all cherish our children’s future. And we are all mortal.
An image of Hiroshima after the nuclear bombing, a small foretaste of what nuclear devastation would look like today.
Finally, Kennedy urged Americans to re-evaluate their attitude toward the cold war. The two relevant paragraphs go as follows:
Let us reexamine our attitude toward the cold war, remembering that we are not engaged in a debate, seeking to pile up debating points. We are not here distributing blame or pointing the finger of judgment. We must deal with the world as it is, and not as it might have been had the history of the last 18 years been different.
We must, therefore, persevere in the search for peace in the hope that constructive changes within the Communist bloc might bring within reach solutions which now seem beyond us. We must conduct our affairs in such a way that it becomes in the Communists’ interest to agree on a genuine peace. Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy-or of a collective death-wish for the world. (emphasis added)
Will anybody listen?
There is no evidence that large numbers of the American people, or policymakers for that matter, carried out the re-evaluation that President Kennedy demanded. There was no popular upsurge demanding arms control or other such negotiations. But with Kennedy in the Presidency, it was nonetheless possible for some progress to be made.
Today, however, with the exception of a recent ad by the Eisenhower Media Network in the New York Times, there is very little prominent dissent from the prevailing line in both political parties that demands precisely the “humiliating retreat” which Kennedy warned against. Any legitimacy to Russia’s concern about NATO expansion, for example, to its borders is denied.
A memorial of Lincoln’s Gettysburg address, erected on the battlefield in 1912. JFK echoes Lincoln’s approach to the “enemy.”
One wonders what our Washington policy analysts would have to say to Kennedy’s argument. Times have changed, they would obviously say. Yes, indeed, they have. Among other things, it is the United States and its military allies deploying offensive nuclear weaponry at the border of Russia, not the Soviets doing the same in our backyard.
But contrary to a prevalent line today. Russia is still a pre-eminent nuclear power with the ability to wipe us, and many other nations, off the face of the earth. Should any sane person be crowing that the fact that Russia has not “gone nuclear” means it’s wielding “empty threats?”
Sixty years after President Kennedy’s American University speech, it’s time we re-evaluate our attitudes once again.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
Watch the 60 minute video above. On April 13, 2023, Dr. Brook Hailu, of Nahoo tv, interviewed me on the weekly broadcast, Voice of The Diaspora . We had an extensive discussion on the GERD, Ethiopia, Africa, geopolitics, and human crieatvitiy in economics. With the creation, and self financing of the GERD, Ethiopia is breaking through the mentality that African nations will always be poor and underdeveloped.
Watch the 20 mimute video below. Lawrence Freeman, was the lead presenter in the book launch of a new book on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam-GERD, at . Georgetown University, Washington DC, on April 29, 2023
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
Lawrence Freeman, delivering the opening presentation at the launch of a new book on the GERD, written by Dereje Tessema.
May 7, 2023
Below are my remarks at the book launch at Georgetown University, Washington, DC on April 29, 2023
We discussed the contribution by author Dereje Tessema, in his new I unique book: How This Happened: Demystifying The Nile, History and Events Leading to the Realization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (amazon.com/HOW-this-HAPPENED-Demystifying-Realization)
In my brief presentation (see below), as the lead presenter, I reviwed the history of the battle in the Nile Basin of colonialism versus economic development, and the positive role of the United States in identifying the GERD, sixty years ago.
Greetings!
It is an honor to be here with all these distinguished panelists and for me to speak on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam–The GERD. Here we are, discussing this new fascinating book on the GERD, 12 years after the first brick was laid by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi on April 11, 2011.
I had the wonderful opportunity to visit the GERD and get a tour by the deputy project manager in December of 2022 on my last visit to Ethiopia.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under constrcution
It was a magnificent sight. You have this huge scientific engineering marvel–a great infrastructure project built between two mountains over the Blue Nile-the Abbay River. The water has been flowing through this area into the White Nile from lake Tana for approximately 5 million years. And The Ethiopians, to their credit, realized that they can make this lazy river do some actual work. They understood that the Abby could be exploited for the benefit of humankind by making this unproductive river produce electricity for Africa. Electricity, in my view, as a physical economist, is the most vital category of hard infrastructure that Africa is lacking. Africans suffer every day from a gross deficiency in electricity. The Ethiopians by 2025, when all 11 turbines are projected to be functioning, will add 5,150 megawatts of electricity to their grid. This will be the biggest new injection of electricity on the African continent.
For me it was exceptionally exciting to visit the GERD. Because it confirmed to me: that humankind, through the exercise of our uniquely human creative imagination, intervenes upon the physical universe, to improve the conditions of life for us human beings. This understanding of human creativity is the underpinning of my philosophy about the universe and the foundation of my economic thinking.
The Ethiopian people and successive Ethiopian governments should be congratulated for self-funding and constructing the GERD. It does not just benefit Ethiopia, but the GERD enhances the entire Nile Basin, including Egypt and Sudan.
One of the most interesting features in this book, among many, is the several hundred year history of the White and Blue Nile River Basins. The key issue which I believe characterizes this 300 year conflict is: the right to utilize the resource of the Blue Nile for the development of the Ethiopian nation and its people. This history is relevant to the efforts today, by some, to prevent the dam from reaching its full productivity; though I am convinced the anti-GERD campaign will not be successful.
Colonial Mentality Over the Nile
As part of their imperialist policy, the British were obsessed with the Nile River Basin, as part of their plans to control indirectly or directly the entire eastern spine of Africa from Egypt to South Africa. Through their control of Egypt, nominally part of the Ottoman Empire, first through Pasha Muhammad Ali and then later his nephew, Khedive Ismail, and finally the outright conquering of Egypt militarily at the end of the 1800s, the British believed that they owned the Nile. Though several battles were waged by the Egyptians against Ethiopia, the Egyptians like the Italians years later at Adwa, were unable to militarily defeat and conquer Ethiopia. The British in their attempt to be the overlord of the entire Nile River Basin, were intent not to allow Ethiopia to develop its own productive capabilities, which most definitely would involve utilizing the water from Lake Tana.
The author, Dereje Tessema, presenting his conception and motivation for wrting his book: How This Happened: Demystifying The Nile, History and Events Leading to the Realization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) .
There were over two dozen treaties and official diplomatic exchanges from 1891 to 2015 concerning the Nile that affected Ethiopia. I will highlight only a few.
As early as the 1891 protocol between the United Kingdom and Italy, Britain made very clear that it would recognize Italy’s control of the northern part of Ethiopia, which is now Eritrea, in return, the Italian government would agree not to obstruct the flow of water from the Atbara River that is one of the three main tributaries, that supply 85% of the water into the White Nile. In 1899 the British with the Egyptians created the Anglo Egyptian Condominium ,which effectively allowed the British through Egypt to govern Sudan. This was another step in the process of the British attempt to have control over the entire Nile River system. It is interesting to note that it was also in 1899 that the British began the construction of the Aswan Low Dam that was completed in 1902. This of course was replaced several decades later by the larger High Aswan Dam.
In the 1902 Anglo Ethiopia Treaty to delineate the borders between Sudan and Ethiopia, the British included a demand that Emperor Menelik II, could not obstruct the flow of any water into the Nile by building anything across the Blue Nile, Lake Tana, or the Sobat River. The British intended never to allow Ethiopia to utilize the Blue Nile for the benefit of its people. The British did not want an independent, developing nation disrupting their plans for the Nile Basin. Rather, they envisioned, utilizing Lake Tana to as a large rain fed storage area, releasing water during the dry season for the agriculture-irrigation schemes in the downstream nations of Egypt and Sudan.
In the 1920s, prior to Mussolini’s invasion in 1935, Britain made clear to the Italians that it would be happy to have Lake Tana controlled-protected from Ethiopia’s utilization by a nation friendly to Britain.
The 1929 Water Agreement between the British, Egypt and Sudan, codified Egypt’s so called natural and historical rights to the Nile. The agreement allocated 48 billion cubic meters of Nile water to Egypt and 4 billion to Sudan–less than 1% of the total 52bcm. The agreement also gave Egypt the right to prevent construction of any project on the Nile that would reduce the flow of the Nile water to Egypt. Ethiopia was not part of this agreement and was not in attendance even though it was an independent sovereign nation that provided the majority of Nile water joining the White Nile under the Khartoum- Omdurman bridge.
Ethiopian Ambassador, Seleshi Bekele, speaking at the book launch. To his right, is retired US Ambassador, David Shinn.
The 1959 Water Agreement between the Republics of Sudan and Egypt increased the water allocations for both countries. Egypt would now receive 55.5 billion cubic meters of water, and Sudan would receive 18.5 bcm. The agreement also allowed Egypt to construct the Aswan High Dam and for Sudan to construct the Rosaries dam, on the Blue Nile, which I visited many years ago. This new water agreement also stipulated again that no other construction could be built on the Nile, implicitly the Blue Nile as well. Essentially this agreement gave Egypt and Sudan veto power against the right of Ethiopia to erect its own dam on its own sovereign territory. Again, Ethiopia was not a participant to this agreement. To my knowledge, Ethiopia has not been a party to any official water agreement with Sudan and Egypt regarding the rights to develop the Blue Nile Basin, even during the negotiations in the Trump administration.
Potential of Blue Nile Basin
Two years before the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Water agreement, Ethiopia officially severed itself from the colonial mentality regarding the Nile, by informing Egypt, on September 23, 1957, that Ethiopia will utilize it water resources for irrigation and hydropower. Quoting the diplomatic note (Part I, Chapter 3, page 50):
Ethiopia has the right and obligation to exploit its water resources for the benefit of its present and future generations of its citizens and must, therefore reassert and reserve now and for the future, the right to take all the measures in respect of its water resources.
Reflecting the better period of United States, when our foreign policy reflected our commitment for development in Africa, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and the U.S. Department of the Interior, signed an agreement with the Ethiopian government to investigate the land and water resources of the Blue Nile River Basin. The project began in 1958, was completed in 1963, and its findings were published in 1964. The report was seven volumes and referred to as the Nile Report. Quoting Dereje (page 54 of the same chapter of his book):
The author signing his new book at the conclusion of the event.
The purpose of this program was to: a) investigate the land and water resources of the Blue Nile River Basin; b) assist in the establishment of an appropriate administrative and engineering organization within the Imperial Ethiopian Government; and c) train Ethiopian personnel in the various disciplines as appropriate.
The other major study of the Blue Nile Basin, was The Abbay River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan, initiated in 1994 and completed in 1998. Dereje documents that in the twentieth century there have been more than 18 feasibility studies of the Nile and Blue Nile River Basin, investigating potential projects for irrigation and hydropower.
The 1957-1964 Nile Report examined the potential of 32 irrigation and energy projects in the Blue Nile River Basin, which are listed in this book on pages 259-260. Four potential dam sites were proposed that could provide sufficient electrical power to satisfy domestic consumption and export to other nations in East Africa. The study identified four potential hydropower projects described on pages 262-266. One of the four hydro-power sites, that the Nile Report called the Border Dam, is today, known as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
The author celebrating with his family.
In Conclusion
As we are assembled here today discussing the contribution of this new treatise on the GERD by Dereje , we should remember what Emperor Haile Selassie said in the 1960s, when he was unable to secure funding for the various irrigation and hydropower projects identified in the 1957-1964 Nile Report. (Quoting from Part V, Chapter 17, page 334): Emperor Selassie said:
We don’t have the capacity to build a dam on the Abbay at this time. Friendly countries will not support this endeavor for fear of antagonizing Egypt. However, the future generations will build it using its own resources. Keep the study safe.
We are less than two years away from celebrating the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with GERD DAY, my proposal for a new national Ethiopian holiday.
Topic: Book Launch and Panel Discussion-How this Happened: Demystifying the Nile-History and Events Leading to the Realization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Date: Saturday, April 29, 2023 Time: 2:00-5:00 PM EST Venue: In person – Georgetown University, Intercultural Center (ICC), DC (Public parking is available at the Southwest Garage. Use 3611 Canal Road as the address for GPS direction to the parking garage. Sign posts will be available to direct guests to the Center) Virtual: Zoom Link (Registration Required) https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_HjSqlMAsQBK72cadz3XCNw Abstract Competition over limited resources, including freshwater management and use, was and continues to be a source of conflict. Unresolved, these issues could affect political relations between riparian states and may exacerbate existing tensions, increase regional instability, and provoke social unrest. The 2018 research by the European Joint Research Center shows that the Nile is the second riskiest basin next to the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin in terms of hydro political issues arising. Eleven riparian states with a total population of over 530 million (2022 UN population report) share the river marking the Nile as the second densely populated basin, next to the Ganges River basin. In his latest book How this Happened: Demystifying the Nile – History and Events Leading to the Realization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) (Gashe Publishing 2023), Dereje Tessema, a research fellow at the Nile House and adjunct facility at Georgetown University, discusses events that started thousands of years ago, culminating in the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). In this six part book he documented the geo- and hydro-politics, diplomacy, international water law, treaties, and agreements. He also provided an overview of the science of the Nile River, the relationship of riparian countries to the river, the project management aspect of the dam, and finally, a recount of his trips from the two sources to the mouth of the Nile River.This panel discussion is designed to give the book launch event participants the opportunity to hear from experts, policy makers, and scholar-practitioners on these five domains.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
Economic Refconstruction and GERD Completion Key Tasks for Ethiopia
Addis Media Network-March 22, 2023
ETV Addis Dialogue-March 26, 2023
Watch my two interviews above.
Following the destructive two year war, Ethiopia needs to become unified with all citizens supporting the future of the Ethiopian nation state as one nation. The thorny issue of transcending ethno-nationalism and ethnic federalism must be undertaken with the expectation that it will be contentious and highly emotional.
However, we can look at two other policies that will help Ethiopia overcome the nation’s current acrimony. One is to launch a massive inclusive economic reconstruction program that will satisfy the economic needs of all its citizens. I estimate a $50 billion price tag to rebuild and expand all features of infrastructure, industry, and agriculture. Secondly, the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will cause a resurgence of the patriotic spirit comparable to that of the victory of Adwa.
The administration of President Joe Biden, has launched what is being called a “charm offensive” with several high level government officials visiting the African continent this year. It is well known in Washington and across Africa that the underlying purpose of the density these visits is to counter China’s influence in Africa primarily, and secondarily that of Russia. However, these well publicized visits to the continent lack real substance. Also, factions of the administration and the State Department are still determined to pursue their agenda of so called human rights, democracy, and good governance, without any concern to reversing the deplorable conditions of life for hundreds of millions of Africans.
If the current U.S. government and U.S. Congress are truly interested in promoting democracy, and human rights, rather than lecturing African nations, they should provide economic assistance to advance development, beyond simply distributing aid. The most effective means to respond to China’s economic influence on the continent is for the U.S. government to issue long term-low interest loans for vital and lifesaving infrastructure. This policy of issuing government backed credit or public sector investment for essential infrastructure is not novel. It was how the U.S. developed our national economy under the leadership of such geniuses as Alexander Hamilton, and Presidents Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin Roosevelt.
For example, compare U.S. leadership for Africa 60 years ago to that of today. Vice President Kamala Harris while she is in Ghana, is enjoying many photo opportunities while offering $100 million to all of West Africa. Six decades earlier, President John Kennedy collaborated with Ghanaian President, Kwame Nkrumah, to construct the Volta Dam energy and aluminum smelting complex. For the U.S. governement to supportively impact Africa, and Ethiopia in particluar, it should reject the dictates of the “human rights mafia” and return to our better days of US-Africa foreign policy.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
In this interview, I explain the strategic importance of the African continent for the global economy in this century. I advocate for a complete reversal of U.S. policy or Africa. It is past time for the U.S. to stop complaining about China and correct our own foreign-economic policy toward the nations of Africa. What African nations need most is: long term, low interest loans for the financing of vital infrastructure projects. China and other nations are contributing to this type of development; the U.S. is not.
The U.S. has lost its commitment, its vision of helping the nations of the Global South, especially Africa, to develop. Instead, they give speeches on the need for their Western version of democracy and good governance, when Africans die every day due to poverty, brought on by the lack of infrastructure. Africa is suffering from the lack of electricity, high-speed railroads, roads, hospitals, etc. The private sector is essential for economic development, but it will never finance the infrastructure required to build modern industrialized economies in Africa.
In my interview, I also discuss my visit to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), and its significance for Africa. Ethiopia’s financing and building of the GERD, which will generate 5,150 megawatts of electricity for the Horn of Africa, can be a model for other nations.
The U.S. and the West have to move away from the insane geopolitical doctrine that views the world as a zero-sum game, which carries overtones of racism and colonialism for Africa. The true measure of the success of U.S. policies is: do they lead to an increase in the material standard of living for Africans.
The foolishness of U.S. and Western policies towards Africa is that they are shortsighted and economically thoughtless. With Africa projected to have one fourth of the world’s population by 2050, the largest number of youth, and the biggest potential workforce in the world, not to develop Africa nations is just plain stupid. The African continent can be the center of economic commerce or a breeding ground for coups and violent extremism. That future is being decided by what we do today.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
Topic: Book Launch and Panel Discussion-How this Happened: Demystifying the Nile-History and Events Leading to the Realization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam 