On July 14, I participated in an hour long podcast called, The Winers (click on the video above). It was a friendly and informative discussion that centered around Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam-GERD, and its policy for development. After the podcast began with a three minute video of the GERD, we had a lively discussion that included the following topics.
What was wrong with USAID, and will President Trump’s African policy be better for Africa
President trump’s “lunch summit” with five African nations
United States’ historic role surveying the GERD from 1957 to 1964
Egypt’s geopolitical opposition to the GERD
President John Kennedy, the last US leader who understood Africa
Ethiopia’s commitment to expanding its manufacturing sector
Erroneous claim of China’s debt-trap policy
Progress by Ethiopia in agriculture especially production of wheat
The Global South’s opposition to Israel’s genocide in Gaza
Lawrence Freeman, May 2025, standing in front of several of the GERD’s water ways that deliver water to turn the turbines.
͏Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
African nations have been plagued in the decades following successful liberation from colonialism, by having to spend billions of dollars to import food to feed their people. In recent years Africa nations have imported over $40 billion of food annually. A criminal waste of their precious foreign exchange. There is no objective reason today that African nations cannot produce enough food to feed their people.
Many African nations had achieved or were approaching food self-sufficiency; the ability to grow enough food to feed their population, in the 1960s and 1970s. Due to neo-liberal economic policies of the West, such as the ill-fated Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs), along with unfair terms of trade, African nations became poorer, and less able to feed their own people, even though they possess plentiful water and abundant fertile soil.
Ethiopia, along with other nations on the African continent is making important strides to reverse this destructive decades long practice. With all the challenges Ethiopia is facing, it has demonstrated a real commitment to upgrade its agricultural sector and end the importation of food. This became obvious to me, during my two weeks visit to Ethiopia (May 12 -25), when I was able to meet with Minister of Agriculture, Dr Girma Amente Nono, and visited several farms in Oromia region, North Shewa Zone, Kimbibit area.
Food insecurity, along with the absence of electricity, and shortage of manufacturing jobs, is the primary causes of instability in African nations. Ethiopia’s determination to end food dependency is not only important for its own people but could provide an exemplar for other nations.
Ethiopia already achieved self-sufficiency in wheat in 2023. It expects to produce thirty million metric tons (mt) of wheat in 2025, and be able to sell wheat to the market, garnering precious foreign exchange. The government is also working on boosting rice production with the expectation that like wheat, Ethiopia will be self-sufficient in rice.
Ethiopia ends heat imports in 2023
Agriculture is responsible for 32% of Ethiopia’s total GDP, over 65% of its population depends on farming for their existence. Its agriculture sector is responsible for 79.46% of Ethiopia’s exports. Unfortunately , like many underdeveloped nations in Africa, due to lack of storage and a paucity of infrastructure, 30-40% of some grains like teff, sorghum, and maze rot before they are consumed.
Subsistence farms of 1- 2 hectares comprise 95% of the nation’s agriculture production. Ethiopia has transformed this small scale inefficient farming through the innovation of “cluster farms.”
There are essentially four elements of Ethiopia’s policy to produce more food for its citizens and become self-sufficient: enlarging the hectares of land under cultivation, increasing the application of irrigation, expanding cluster farming, and intensifying mechanization.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will be officially inaugurated in September
Overview of Ethiopia
With 130 million people, Ethiopia has the second largest population in Africa and is the most populated landlocked nation on the continent.
Land area is 1.3 million kilometers square (kms) or 113 hectares. The estimated potential cultivatable land is seventy-four million hectares. Presently thirty million hectares are under cultivation, with the utilization of irrigation, a total of forty million hectares could be cultivated. Ethiopia is not lacking water with its twelve major river basins.
Ethiopia has the largest livestock in Africa with over seventy million head of cattle and over ninety-five million sheep, and goats.
Ethiopia has the third largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, the largest economy in East Africa, and is considered to have one of the fastest growing economies on the continent. With the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Ethiopia will have the capacity to generate 9,630 megawatts of electricity, second to South Africa among the sub-Saharan nations, and the sixth largest generation of electricity on the continent.
Below are some highlights of Ethiopia’s progress in the agricultural sector, which is projected to grow 6.% in the next fiscal year.
Ethiopian coffee earned $2.65 billion in fiscal year 2024/25
Coffee Still #1
Ethiopia is the historic home of coffee and the number three exporter in the world. It is Ethiopia’s number one export. In 2024/5 fiscal year, Ethiopia exported 469,000 mt) for $2.65 billion, and coffee was 70% of Ethiopia’s agricultural exports.
Under the direction of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, more than two billion coffee seedlings are to be planted in 2025, as part of the country’s Green-Legacy Initiative. Ethiopians have already planted forty billion trees, a sizable portion of their goal of planting fifty billion seedlings across the nation by then of 2026.
Author examining wheat field with Dr. Legese, Min for Gov’t Communications, (left) and Dr. Birhanu, Former State Min Irrigation Development,(right)
Irrigation Drives Wheat Production
Wheat production is the flagship success story for Ethiopia, which can be emulated by other nations.
Ethiopia used to spend 1.0 billion USD importing wheat. In 2020, Ethiopia launched their five year self-sufficiency wheat initiative. At that time, they produced five million tons of wheat on 1.75 million hectares at a yield of 2.7 mt per hectare, only rain nurtured. Irrigation was the game-changer.
In 2024, Ethiopia planted wheat on 3.6 million hectares, watered by the two rainy seasons, and an additional 3 million hectares utilizing irrigation, for a total of 6.6 million hectares for growing wheat. This yielded a total of twenty-three million mt of wheat. In 2024-2025, wheat production yielded 3.6 mt per hectare, only slightly below the world average for irrigated wheat at 3.8 mt per hectare, relying primarily on oxen to plow their fields. To encourage mechanization the government lifted taxes on all items deployed in farming, for five years.
Dr. Birhanu releasing water to irrigate wheat
According to figures from the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture, wheat production has steadily risen over the last six years. It appears that Ethiopia is on target to reach its goal of thirty mt of wheat in 2025 by increasing the area under wheat to 7.7 million hectares in both seasons. Ethiopia ceased importing wheat in 2023. As a result. Ethiopia’s development partners have started buying Ethiopia’s surplus wheat, and more wheat is expected to e sold on the international markets this year, as wheat production is increased.
This level of progress is essential for a nation to develop. As of 2023, Ethiopia was the ninth largest wheat producer of wheat in the world. Not surprisingly, Ethiopia is the top wheat producer in Africa, almost three times the size of Egypt, the next largest producer of wheat on the continent.
Ethiopia is still functioning at modest yields per hectare, ranking forty-sixth on world in productivity. With improvements in yield per hectare, Ethiopia will be able to reach new record levels of wheat production in the years ahead. Attaining food sovereignty is a critical element for Ethiopia to achieve higher levels of economic growth and raising the living standards of its people.
Mechanization of wheat harvesting improves productivity
Cluster Farming
The innovation of cluster farming has dramatically changed the landscape of Ethiopia’s agricultural sector, which is primarily composed of subsistence farmers. Cluster farming can involve as many as two thousand farmers and up to twenty thousand hectares. By combining their farms and working together, subsistence farmers can produce one crop more economically through their collaboration. Collectively they prepare the land, seed it, plough it, and harvest it. This has allowed more efficient application of mechanization, because with a larger area of land being cultivated, the farmers can pool their resources to rent agricultural machinery. There are fifteen million former subsistence farmers participating in farming 11.8 million hectares. Cluster farming has increased productivity by 29%, profitability by 16%, and comprises 70% of wheat production.
Cluster farming and expansion of irrigation have been transformative in Ethiopia’s wheat production.
Wonji Shoa Sugar Factory
During my visit to Ethiopia I had the pleasure of visiting the Wonji Shoa Sugar Factory in the Oromiya region, near the city of Adama. The Wonji is the oldest sugar factory in Ethiopia, beginning production of sugar in 1954. The Shoa Sugar factory, the second oldest, began production eight years later in 1962. Both were shut down and redesigned in 2013, and in July 2014, reopened as the consolidated Wonji Shoa Sugar factory, which is still refining sugar cane today.
The Wonji Shoa Sugar Factory in Ethiopia has a daily crushing capacity of 6,250 tons of sugarcane, producing around 174,946 tons of crushed sugar. The factory has plans to further expand its capacity, potentially reaching a crushing capacity of 12,500 mt of cane per day and producing 220,700 mt of sugar annually. The Wonji Shoa Sugar Factory comprises 16,000 hectares, with 7,000 hectares owned by out-grower farmer associations, and 9,000 hectares owned by the Ethiopian Industry Sugar Group (ESIG). The factory also provides essential social infrastructure like schools, health stations, and potable water centers.
Woji Shoa uses several above ground center pivot irrigation systems, which rotate in a circular motion around a fixed point, sprinkling a swath of crops with water as it moves. It is identical to the systems irrigating America’s farmland.
Author on top of center pivot sprinkler for irrigation
Woji Shoa also generates thirty-one MW of electricity from bagasse (a byproduct of sugarcane processing) consuming eleven MW for self-sufficiency.
The Wonji Shoa Sugar plant is in the Awash River Basin. The Awash River uniquely remains completely inside Ethiopia. This 1,200 kms river is responsible for the Awash Valley Basin. Emperor Haile Selassie in 1962, recognizing the potential of the Awash Valley for agricultural and industrial development, designed a public autonomous authority, the Awash Valley Authority (AVA). Probably, with the success of U.S. President Roosevelt’s Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) in mind, the emperor gave the AVA the responsibility of administering and legally overseeing all projects within the Awash Valley.
The AVA was the first river basin organization in Ethiopia to be given such comprehensive authority for planning and development of water and other resources. As part of this government led project, like Roosevelt’s TVA, the AVA built schools and a hospital for the people working there. Ethiopia currently has eight operating sugar refineries and an additional five in various stages of operation. Ethiopia’s production of sugar peaked in 2017 to 450,000 mt of crushed sugar. In subsequent years production declined to less than 400,000 mt, and is projected to produce 360,000 mt for 2024-2025. However, domestic demand for sugar is approximately 650,000 mt. The ESIG has plans to increase sugar production to 1.3 million mt in the next five years, which would allow Ethiopia to become self-sufficient in sugar, and produce a surplus for export.
Similar to the progress in wheat production, Ethiopia’s application of large-scale irrigation is expected to increase productivity.
͏Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for 35 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, consultant on Africa, and an analyst of global strategic relations. Mr. Freeman strongly believes that economic development is an essential human right. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com, also publishes on: lawrencefreeman.substack.com, “Freeman’s Africa and the World, and on X@lkfreemansafrica
Black Sea Grain Initiative Joint Coordination Center During the period of the Initiative, 75% of Ukraine’s grain exports went to Europe, China, and Türkiye, while very poor countries got between 2.5% and 3%.
In this article: Black Sea Grain Initiative Exposed, excerpted below, EIR magazine usefully exposes the false narrative attacking Russia for the food global shortage.
The following concepts should be clear to all those truly concerned about eradicating hunger in Africa and other parts of the world.
First of all, Russia is not causing the world food shortage by ending the Black Sea Grain Initiaive. As indicated by EIR, only a tiny fraction of Ukraine’s wheat has been exported to poor nations whose populations are suffering from severe food insecurity. Second of all, Russia is the leading exporter of wheat and fertilizer components in the world. Sanctions against Russia has harmed all food importing nations. Lifting sanctions against Russia would help to alleviate food shortages immediately. The West never honored their part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement that stipulated that there would be an easing of Russia’s export of wheat and fertilizers. Most important of all, there is no objective reason for food insecurity among any people of any nation on this planet! This brings us to the heart of the issue regarding food insecurity. Does the West really care about global food deficiencies, or has it become another weapon in the U.S. led proxy war against Russia? Hunger on our planet could have been eliminated decades ago. For over 12,000 years, humankind has known how to grow food. When advances in technology, irrigation, mechanization, and fertilizers have been applied to farming, yields per hectare have massively increased. I have personally witnessed this in my travels through the agricultural regions of the United States.
For 30 years I have traveled throughout many sub-Saharan African nations, which are endowed with fertile soil, and large amounts of arable, but uncultivated land, creating a huge potential for the expansion of food production. If African nations in particular had been assisted in developing a modern agricultural sector coupled with an expanding manufacturing sector, hunger would cease to exist, and the African continent would be a net food exporter.
The failure by Western nations and financial institutions, over the last six decades, to collaborate in creating vibrant agro-manufacturing economies in Africa, is the cause of food insecurity on the continent today.
A new paradigm of global relations, encompassing a new financial architecture, dedicated to promoting economic development, would create the potential for leading food and fertilizer producing nations to begin the process of doubling world agricultural output. Progress would be visible immediately, and in the near future, no human being would have to suffer from want of food, anywhere on our planet.
EIR excerpts:
Narrative #1: The outrageous lie that Ukraine was a major provider of grain to poor countries, and Russia was starving people by its special military operation. Fact check: Ukraine has been, since the 1990s, a major source of grain on the commercial market for developed countries, e.g. Spain, Japan, The Netherlands, China and others—for livestock feed and food needs.
These importers account for over 90% of Ukraine’s exports, and this kind of “world sourcing,” was imposed on Ukraine beginning in the 1990s, by the multi-national cartels which came to dominate land use, processing, shipping and export destinations. It was these cartels which Ambassador Polyansky named as having profited from the year-long Black Sea Grain Initiative.
In brief, the breakdown of Ukraine’s exports of 32–33 million metric tons of grain during the period of the Initiative: 32.9 million tons total, of which 40% went to European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, others), 25% to China; 10% to Türkiye. The very poorest countries got between 2.5% and 3% of the Ukraine grain exports over the period of the Initiative. This is illustrated by an infographic from the Black Sea Grain Initiative Joint Coordination Center. (Emphasis added)
Narrative #2: Promoted in Fall 2022 to replace the discredited “Ukraine supplies poor countries” version. It states that preventing Ukraine Black Sea food exports raises the prices on the world grain markets, and that is what harms poor, grain-import dependent nations. There is a grain of truth to this, but with a big exception. The West is doing less than nothing to increase grain production where possible, to supply emergency relief, and to put an end to the underlying causes of hunger to begin with. The relevant figures of global underproduction of food can be seen in the volume of annual output of total grains, listed in order of volume: corn/maize, wheat, rice, barley, sorghum, oats, rye, etc. With over 8 billion people in the world, at the rough metric of half a ton of grain production per person, we should be producing some 4 billion tons a year (for direct consumption, and indirect consumption through the animal protein chain). But the annual global harvest is actually running at below 3 billion tons. Total grains output for the current and past two years is hovering in the same range: 2.799 billion metric tons in 2021/22, 2.745 bmt in 2022/23, and 2.831 bmt projected for 2023/24).
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is a teacher, writer, public speaker, and consultant on Africa. He is also the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton
A Somalian girl carries her sibling along land left dry by persistent drought. Getty Image, News24
Lawrence Freeman
May 17, 2022
In recent months there have been an abundance of reports on how the conflict in Ukraine is exacerbating food scarcity in Africa. The argument is that Ukraine, ordinarily a large exporter of wheat, is not shipping food to the rest of the world. This includes African nations, some of which are large importers of Ukrainian wheat, resulting in shortages of food, and higher prices, contributing to Africa’s food insecurity.
Food Crisis Staggering in Africa
According to Global Report on Food Crisis 2022, eight of the countries facing the most severe food shortages are in Africa, affecting over 81 million Africans. The breakdown is:
DRC 25.9 million people, Afghanistan 22.8 million, Nigeria 19.5 million, Yemen 19 million, Ethiopia between 14-15 million, South Sudan 7.7 million, Somalia 6 million, Sudan 6 million, Pakistan 4.7 million, Haiti 4.5 million, Niger 4.4 million and, lastly, Kenya 3.4 million, as reported by News24
These nations have been given an Integrated Phase Classification 3 (IPC3), which is defined as households that have either:
Food consumption gaps that are reflected by high or above-usual acute malnutrition; OR Are marginally able to meet minimum food needs but only by depleting essential livelihood assets or through crisis-coping strategies.
News24 also reports that according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, in 2020, “approximately 323.3 million people in Africa or 29.5% of the population ran out of food or went without eating that year.”
The United Nations-(UN News) reports that “276 million people around the globe were already facing hunger at the beginning of the year. That number could rise by 47 million if the war continues according to the WFP (World Food Pogramme), with the steepest rise in Sub-Saharan Africa.” (emphasis added)
Industrialization to End Hunger
With abundant hect-acres of fertile soil and arable land, coupled with many water systems, African nations should have already achieved food self-sufficiency. Ironically, sadly, most nations are farther away from being able to feed their populations through their own production of food than they were during the 1960 and 1970s.
African nations are undermining their own economies by importing large amounts of food. According to President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Akinwumi Adesina, “Africa’s annual food import bill of $35 billion, estimated to rise to $110 billion by 2025, weakens African economies, decimates its agriculture and exports jobs from the continent.”
In reality, Africa’s huge import bill is hindering nations from developing the capacity to eliminate poverty and hunger. Nations using their precious foreign exchange to buy food that they can grow themselves is more than counter-productive. What is needed to end food insecurity is for Africa nations to build their own robust agricultural and manufacturing sectors. There are oligarchical financial interests, steeped in the colonial mind-set, who do not want Africa nations to develop, to become industrialized. There are others, even well-meaning, who believe that African nations should remain agrarian societies. As an expert in physical economics, I can assure you that this approach will fail, and will only lead to more poverty and death.
President George Washington’s brilliant Secretary of the Treasury, Alexander Hamilton, fortunately won the battle against Thomas Jefferson and the slaved based agrarian South, to create a manufacturing industry in the newly established United states. Africa must do the same
With sixty percent of the world’s arable land that remains uncultivated, it is obvious that Africa can significantly increase food production in the short term. However, this does not obviate the need for rapid expansion of industry, beyond those businesses devoted only to the extraction of resources. Instead of spending tens of billions of dollars for imported wheat and rice that can be grown indigenously, that money should be investmented in infrastructure, and on valued-added production.
David Beasley, the head of the World Food Program, visiting Sanaa, Yemen, September 2018, where the world’s worst hunger crisis continues to unfold. (courtesy WFP/Marco Frattini, September 2018)
Aid is Insufficient
David Beasley, Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Programme, told a Senate Appropriations subcommittee Wednesday, May 11, that $5 billion is needed to avoid famine and migration due to COVID-19 and the loss of food from Ukraine. He told the Senators, “ If you do not respond now, we will see destabilization, mass starvation, and migration on an unprecedented scale, and at a far greater cost. A massive influx of refugees to Western countries could soon become a reality.”
Morally we are compelled to acquiesce to Beasley’s legitimate request, although it is doubtful that the nations of the advanced sector will actually come up with the money.
How many hundreds of billions of dollars have been expended on providing aid to countries in need? What would be the results if an equivalent amount of money were spent on development. Emergency aid is required to prevent our fellow human beings from perishing. However, emergency aid does not contribute to creating durable economic transformation that would eliminate the conditions that are the cause for food deprivation. Aid does not increase the productive powers of labor; it does not increase the productivity of the economy. While we can do no less than be the Good-Samaritan, what is the tangible long term effect of exclusively delivering aid?
Infrastructure Crucial
Deficits in critical categories of hard infrastructure, especially roads, railroads, and electricity, is depriving nations of precisely those elements of physical economy required to increase the production of real wealth. Why don’t the G7 and European donor nations “grant” an equivalent amount of “aid money” for investment in infrastructure and building nascent industries? Disbursing money either through outright endowments or long-term low interest loans for development has the potential to change the dynamics of poverty and hunger plaguing African nations.
For example, consider irrigation. Bringing water to farmland would substantially increase food production. Most African nations irrigate 5% or less of their land. Worse, many nations still depend on backward modes of subsistence farming. What would be required to double or triple irrigation? Primarily, energy to pump the water is essential, but African nations are energy starved. Pipes to transport the water. Advanced machinery would be required to harvest the increased yields. Roads and railroads would be needed to transport the crops to markets.
Given Africa’s untapped agricultural potential, with investments in these basic classifications of infrastructure; hunger could be eliminated.
In October 2020, in response to an earlier food crisis, I delineated the following necessary actions (below) that should have been taken. These measures are still valid today, and should be implemented now, without delay.
Emergency Action Required
We must urgently deliver food to starving people. One single human being dying from starvation is intolerable. Every creative soul that perishes is a loss to the human race.
Nations producing food surpluses must allocate food shipments to feed starving people.
Logistics for delivery will have to done in a military fashion or directly by qualified military personnel supported by governments.
Roads, railways, and bridges constructed for emergency food delivery can serve as an initial platform for expansion to a higher plateau of infrastructure required for economic growth.
Debts must be suspended to enable nations to direct money away from onerous payments of debt service to growing and distributing food.
A new financial architecture-a New Bretton Woods must be established with a facility to issue credit to finance critical categories of infrastructure necessary for economic growth and food production.
Lawrence Freeman is a Political-Economic Analyst for Africa, who has been involved in economic development policies for Africa for over 30 years. He is the creator of the blog: lawrencefreemanafricaandtheworld.com. Mr. Freeman’s stated personal mission is; to eliminate poverty and hunger in Africa by applying the scientific economic principles of Alexander Hamilton.
